Price is trying to stabilize around $0.127, but a big supply event is coming and that changes everything.
⚠️ My View on $XPL Right Now
This is not a clean long yet — and also not a blind short.
It’s a wait-for-clarity setup.
📉 Bias: Short-term NEUTRAL → BEARISH (until unlock passes)
Key Levels to Watch
• Support: $0.120 (must hold)
• Resistance: $0.145 – $0.155
• High-Risk Zone: Jan 25 (88.8M token unlock)
Yes, taker buys are strong ($30M+), and price is trying to base — but the unlock is the real boss here.
🧠 What the market is telling us
• 88.8M tokens unlock on Jan 25 = sell-side risk
• Long/Short ratio is weak (0.46)
• Short whales are in control and mostly profitable
• Longs are still underwater
• Any bounce before unlock can be sold into
That’s not the environment to force longs.
❌ Why I’m not long yet
• Supply shock not priced in
• Shorts control size and positioning
• Relief rallies likely fade near resistance
• Volatility will spike around unlock
🟢 What WOULD change my bias
If price holds $0.12 after the unlock
AND shorts fail to push lower,
then I start looking at accumulation plays toward $0.10–$0.12 for the bigger picture.
🟣 Long-term note (not a trade)
NEAR Intents integration is real utility, real growth — just not something you trade before a major unlock.
Rule here:
👉 Survive the unlock first.
👉 Trade direction second.
Patience > prediction
