The 200 EMA on the 3-day chart is acting like a hard ceiling near 2.46–2.60 — and price is pressing right into it. This is where most people start getting confident… right before the market decides.
A wick above 2.6 means nothing if the candle closes back inside the range. That’s where fake breakouts usually turn ugly fast, with price snapping back toward 2.0 and possibly lower if support breaks.
But if it holds and closes above resistance, the entire structure shifts and momentum can flip violently in the other direction.
Right now, it’s not about prediction — it’s about who gets trapped.