币圈心理疗愈-Seven

Let's talk about the principal amount. In the cryptocurrency world, the starting capital varies, and the gameplay and mindset are really different.

Capital tiers and thresholds

Below 500,000: This tier is the hardest. The money may come from living expenses, loans, or even down payments, and the pressure is immense. Losing twenty to thirty thousand may change the trajectory of your life. It's like 'the Eight Immortals crossing the sea, each displaying their own powers,' but the risks are extremely high.

500,000 - 1,000,000: This is considered to be ahead of most ordinary people. Many decent trading opportunities only become available at this threshold.

Above 1,000,000: At this point, you have a 'safe haven.' It's like having a strong young person helping you make money. Although there's still effort required, you can plan for the long term and endure a bear market.

Above 5,000,000: At this level, relying solely on cryptocurrency investments is almost equivalent to having two young laborers working for you. This is basically idle money, not affecting your life, and the mindset is completely different.

📈 Where does the money flow?

Interestingly, the larger the principal, the easier it is to make money. It's not that you are better, but that you have more room for error—pursuing the same returns requires much less risk.

In short, money always flows to those who are not short of it. The amount of principal directly determines whether you can win easily or whether every step is taken with anxiety.

#加密市场反弹 #加密市场观察

The cryptocurrency market is slowly changing. In the past, people often said the "four-year cycle" of bull and bear markets, but this is becoming less reliable, and the trend is starting to resemble that of the US stock market.

Let's take a look at Bitcoin's past bull markets:

The first wave (2009-2011): increased by over 40,000 times, but not many people knew about it back then.

The second wave (2011-2013): also good, increased by over 600 times.

The third wave (2015-2017): over 100 times.

The fourth wave (2018-2021): over 20 times.

The expected wave (2022-2025): might be around 8 times.

Do you see it? Bitcoin is becoming increasingly "stable." The price peaks are still rising, but the growth rate is becoming more moderate, and bear markets are not as scary as before. Moreover, the duration of bull markets has increased, while bear markets last about a year.

Now let's talk about the halving of mining rewards:

First time in 2012: mining rewards reduced from 50 coins to 25.

Second time in 2016: reduced from 25 to 12.5.

Third time in 2020: reduced from 12.5 to 6.25.

This year in April, the fourth time: now it's only 3.125 coins.

The halving has previously caused Bitcoin prices to soar each time, which is why it is particularly valued in the community as the "halving cycle."

But now it feels like this move isn't as effective. I think this round can still somewhat be explained by the four-year cycle, but the next round will probably not work at all.

The whole market is aligning more with the trend of the US stock market, with less volatility, gradually maturing.

To put it simply, cryptocurrency is "growing up" and is increasingly resembling a formal financial market.

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#美SEC推动加密创新监管 #加密市场反弹

Recently, those who were previously hyping $ASTER and $ZEC seem to have quieted down. These two coins appeared particularly resilient when Bitcoin dropped sharply, but now that Bitcoin has rebounded, they have started to decline as well.

I have previously reminded everyone: some altcoins that hold up during a market downturn may seem to have capital support, but they are likely traps to attract retail investors. Once the market stabilizes, they often begin to 'catch up' on losses.

Therefore, if you want to make profits from altcoins during a rebound, the correct approach is not to chase those that are rising against the trend when the market is down, but to look for those with decent fundamentals that have fallen significantly on the decline list. Usually, once Bitcoin stabilizes, bottom-fishing on these oversold varieties tends to yield a rebound profit of about 20%, which has a fairly high probability.

The tricks in the market are constantly changing. We must keep up with the rhythm and respond flexibly to survive in this market.

It seems that this trend of $ZEC is almost at its end, and now we just need to see if the position at 420 can hold.

If this support is broken, once the M-top pattern is confirmed, the next step might be to head towards 300.

Those who were desperately promoting ZEC to replace Bitcoin are now all silent, probably stuck at high positions.

#BTC Will the price reach 200,000 next year???

Previously, the rainbow chart predicted that the bull market would peak at 200,000 in 2025, but the highest it got was only 126,000. However, many people insist that its "bottom prediction" is valid, so 65,000 is considered the iron bottom, pushing the target for 2026 up to 200,000-250,000.

To put it simply, this is a typical technical analysis logic: because it has risen this way in the past, it will rise this way in the future.

But the real driving force behind Bitcoin has always been very simple: how much money has been printed globally and how many real users are on the chain. The previous two bull markets occurred during periods of global monetary easing. At that time, not only Bitcoin, but also real estate, stocks, commodities, and even trendy toys were rising—there's no need to understand economics, just feel that prices are rising, and you know that money is depreciating.

This year's situation is obviously different, with a stronger hint of deflation. Where are the assets being crazily snapped up nationwide? Besides second-hand luxury goods and a slightly warmer rental market, everything else is quite bleak. This resembles Japan's long-term deflationary state: money is more valuable, young people are poorer, elderly people are richer, and consumption is entirely focused on cost-effectiveness.

This structure cannot last. It's highly probable that the U.S. will continue to ease monetary policy in the next 3-5 years, but there will be a major reshuffling before that. This is also the reason why I believe this bear market will not last more than a year.

Many people say "learn from Buffett, hold long-term," but Buffett himself is also dynamically adjusting his portfolio, holding trillions in cash. When stuck in a position, one always thinks it will go back up, but the reality is: avoiding a bear market = earning a hundred times more, getting stuck once = needing a tenfold increase to break even. Selling at a high of 100,000 could be 1,000,000 in the future.

There's a simple trick: when you want to increase your position, first assume you have already liquidated your holdings, then ask: if I were in cash, would I still buy at this level? Thinking this way, many impulses just disappear.

I'm just casually chatting, organizing my thoughts, and preparing for the next investment.

#加密市场反弹 #ETH巨鲸增持

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