My investment experience of turning around in 2020
I discovered the investment opportunity in Bitcoin around the end of October 2020. I did not do specific research at that time, but I knew that the market should come soon. Even if it does not come by the end of 2020, it will definitely come in 2021. Then I took action and transferred 372,000 from the stock market. I bought Bitcoin on October 30, 2020. The average price started from 13550 to around 13990. I bought a total of 4.1 coins. I will post a picture of the price later. Buy spot operation: Buy spot operation and then start operating the contract. I started from the original two to three thousand contracts. Before, I mainly did quarterly trading. Later, because quarterly settlement was required in December, I also opened perpetual trading before then and slowly rolled out. My approach is to put all the coins in my wallet, and then open an order based on the liquidation price to ensure absolute safety and prevent liquidation. This keeps going. This is the core content of my operation. This is my initial order record. 2020.11.05 Later on, I have been studying the market and thinking about some issues, how to make this transaction more perfect. I simply made a statistics on the Bitcoin market at a certain time (picture attached below). After completing the statistics, I became more convinced and strengthened my confidence. To be honest, I have been speculating in the stock market for nearly ten years and have not made a penny. Overall, I have still made a loss. I don’t know how many leeks have been harvested. Since the stock market is like this, then give the currency circle a try. I open perpetual and seasonal orders, and I ensure that the liquidation price is very low, at least $10,000 higher than the current price. 2020.11.12 15::26 pm 2020.11.12 18:13 pm 2020.11.13 7:14 am 2020.11.17 4:26 am Sometimes I wake up in the middle of the night and look at the market and take a screenshot 2020.11.17 19:24 pm At this time I have gone from 4.1 coins to 10 coins. When confidence comes, of course there will be adjustments and a trough stage later on. 2020.12.22 22:19 2020.#btc #etf 12.25 19:44 pm At this time, basically all my orders have been opened. Then the assets are driven all the way onto the highway. In the early morning of December 31, 2020, it exceeded the four million mark. As the market gradually picked up, my profits also grew larger and larger, and I ignored all the intermediate bands. Because I know that you will never be able to buy at the bottom price, so I have always been firm, not doing swings, and holding on all the way. Even if there are adjustments in the middle, I rarely operate. Of course, your experience is great. I once , probably from 4.1 reached 13 (the number of Bitcoins). Later, the market encountered periodic adjustments. I was also hurt a lot, but I resisted all the way. Some orders were coming in and out in the early stage. It wasn’t until I made that statistical chart, and the quarterly contract delivery happened to be in late December, that I had already added the perpetual orders until I thought it was enough. Later, it should be 12,000 contracts. , for the current quarter, the issue of delivery was taken into consideration. I was watching the market at around 4 o'clock in the afternoon on the day of delivery. I used my mobile phone to operate it. A contract. Because it is a new quarterly order, the delivery will not be until mid-March, so I have always deliberately remembered the importance of the bottom price. Even if I am trapped, it is temporary. The delivery will be in March. At most, I will only pay a little more handling fee. The subsequent trend proved the correctness of my decision. The price of Bitcoin is a unilateral upward trend. 2020.12.31. The most original is this list, here is 2020.12.31. At 20:11 pm on January 2, 2021, at 20:11 pm on January 2, 2021, the assets exceeded the five million mark. At 23:06 pm on January 2, it exceeded the six million mark at 23:06 pm on January 2. In the early morning of January 3, it exceeded 7 million. It exceeded 8 million at 19:52 on the evening of the 3rd. It exceeded 8 million at 19:52 on the evening of the 3rd. Then there was the big retracement on the 1/4th day. I didn't move the order, but took the opportunity to use the second quarter contract to play short-term. At 8:02 am on January 7th, assets exceeded the 9 million mark. On the same day, it exceeded the 10 million mark within a few minutes. Assets soared to over 1,200,000. Assets soared to over 1,200,000. At 21:30 in the evening on January 9, 2021, another wave of adjustments was made, but my order was still there. I was already prepared for the bottom order and stayed put. Some people may ask, that is because you are lucky, if you encounter 312 in 20 years to the end of the year. . . . First of all, let me make it clear that Bitcoin was halved in May 2020. I would never open a contract at that time. I had considered it before doing this and I also summarized the Bitcoin halving. The subsequent market trend will probably start when. So I originally thought it would start in the first quarter of 2021, and then gradually enter the ambush in the fourth quarter of 2020.This was planned from the beginning. Therefore, I was fortunate not to be hit by the big liquidation of 312, because I knew that the big market trend of Bitcoin would never start at that time. There is nothing else, just make the expected plans and analysis and judgment, and watch as you go. Everyone has also seen the actual trend. Large foreign Wall Street institutions have entered the market in large numbers. The pricing power of the market has been taken over by developed countries in Europe and the United States since 312. If it is under control, the country is already weak. This also proves why the Bitcoin market generally starts at four or five o'clock in the afternoon, seven or eight o'clock in the evening, and four or five o'clock in the morning. The above is just a general statement, not necessarily. Including the recent major phased adjustment, it seems that after the trend comes out, there will be a wide-ranging washout, worth about 10,000 U.S. dollars. I still hold all the orders I opened last year, and my wallet balance dropped from the highest of 48.5 to about 28. My impression is that I haven’t wavered at all, I just have firmed up my judgment and understanding. Let me reiterate, contract trading is high risk, everyone must stay vigilant! ! !
Why does Bitcoin always plummet at 10 AM when the US market opens? This tweet talks about an interesting phenomenon: since early November, Bitcoin has been decreasing for most of the time after the US stock market opens. The same situation occurred in the second and third quarters as well. Last night, Bitcoin erased 16 hours of gains in just 20 minutes after the US market opened.
Previously, financial blogger @zerohedge has pointed this out multiple times, believing that Jane Street is the most likely entity to implement this behavior. From the charts, this pattern is too consistent to ignore: a complete crash within the first hour after opening, followed by a slow recovery. This is a typical high-frequency trading execution pattern.
This aligns well with their requirements: • Jane Street is one of the largest high-frequency trading firms in the world. • They have the speed and liquidity to affect the market within minutes. In fact, Jane Street is the largest market maker globally, spanning across multiple markets including US stocks and cryptocurrencies. Their reported positions to the SEC reach as high as hundreds of billions of dollars, and of course, this is not even the managed scale. Jane Street is also the market maker for several of the largest Bitcoin ETFs.
This behavior seems quite simple: 1. Sell Bitcoin at the open. 2. Push the price towards a liquid market. 3. Re-enter at lower levels. 4. Repeat daily. By doing so, they have accumulated billions $BTC . As of now, Jane Street holds $2.5 billion worth of BlackRock IBIT ETF, which is their fifth largest position.
It looks very manipulative, and with macro headwinds, it has become even more adept. When will the big players finish accumulating? 🧐#比特币VS代币化黄金 $BTC
The current market is in a chaotic fluctuation, and high-leverage short-term trading is basically like giving away money.
So now it's either low-multiplication contracts or holding onto spot positions steadily, or you can set up a grid arbitrage.
Trying to guess the direction in a chaotic fluctuation with high leverage can easily lead to a complete pullback after a few attempts.
So I continue to hold my positions; yesterday, USDT issued another 1 billion, and expectations for interest rate cuts and easing are also on the way. Holding steady is better than chaotic trading.
Although the market has been fluctuating up and down, Kai is still bullish on ETH. He also hopes that BTC can rebound to 100k and take ETH flying/#比特币VS代币化黄金
Recently, I often see the saying "You only need to be rich once in life." I suspect some friends have misunderstood the meaning of Buffett's words. Isn't it true that most people think that being rich once means hitting a big win and then not playing anymore? There are indeed quite a few who think this way. I suspect the author of this book has gone to great lengths to attract gambling enthusiasts, and has also tapped into the retail investors' love for gambling mentality. Buffett's real logic is: "Being rich once" doesn't mean you go all-in for a gamble, but rather that you use a method that never goes to zero, and getting rich once is enough. "Once" refers to the irreversibility of the compounding process. Once you have crossed a certain wealth threshold through steady appreciation, it is very difficult to fall back down. This requires discipline, patience, and time, just as he said: "Life is like a snowball; the important thing is to find wet snow and a long hill." Going all-in creates an artificially steep cliff, which is not a "hill" at all. People like simple, exciting stories and detest slow accumulation. The narrative of "getting rich quickly and then exiting" satisfies human nature's fantasy of shortcuts, while the true "being rich once" is counterintuitive; it requires you to choose the "boring" right path when facing countless temptations. #比特币VS代币化黄金 $ETH
Recently, the topic of whether short-term trading can make money has become quite popular, so I'll share my own views.
I believe that if you want to make money in the market, you must engage in short-term trading. If you don't trade short-term, you won't sense when real opportunities arise, and you won't dare to open a position; you won't even be aware of it.
However, making huge profits from short-term trading is very difficult because short-term trading has a significant impact on one's mindset, especially with high leverage and heavy positions. Moreover, engaging in short-term trading is a mathematical problem; over the long term, your win rate will surely approach fifty percent, no matter how skilled you are. There are trading costs and psychological issues, making it hard to avoid losses.
Therefore, my trading strategy has always been to use a small capital that accounts for about ten percent of my cash to engage in short-term trading, and when a big opportunity arises, I will go in with heavy positions.
My profits since 2024 have mainly come from the surge in BTC, the meme market at the end of 2024, and the ETH market in August 2025. At other times, my win rate in short-term trading has been around fifty percent, and occasionally even the opposite direction.
So don’t expect to make big money from short-term trading; almost no one can do it. Even if you do, you won't be able to hold on to that money.
With small capital, you need to save your money. Whether you are working or using various methods, you must accumulate capital. You should wait for either a particularly good opportunity or a black swan event to strike with heavy positions to make big money. It’s not about having smaller capital and higher leverage. #比特币VS代币化黄金
Trading doesn't require too much technical analysis on entry and exit; instead of researching these techniques all day, it’s better to cultivate your courage to open positions. In principle, you can open long or short positions at any location. The key is how to open large positions while keeping losses small after a judgment error; that is what should be pondered the most. The amount of profit made during a market trend and the amount of drawdown determine the quality of trading. The market exists precisely because there are people opening long and short positions at all locations, which is why prices can exist. Therefore, in principle, long and short positions can be opened anywhere.
But why do only 2% of people in the market make money while 98% lose? 1. Who are the people losing money in the market? 1. Frequent short-term traders are losing money because transaction fees will take up the largest share of your capital; 2. Emotion-driven traders are losing money, acting recklessly without a plan, and randomly opening and closing positions; 3. Those who do not cut losses after making judgment errors are losing money; 4. Those who have too large a stop loss after entering are losing money; 5. Those with excessively high leverage who do not cut losses in time are losing money.
2. Who are the people making money in the market? 1. Those who dare to open positions; 2. Those who hold profitable positions after opening are making money; 3. Those who open positions and add to their winning trades are making money; The fluctuation of a market trend is minimal, and the size of the position determines the height of the profits.
Many analysts or signal callers analyze in great detail, but in reality, they are either just talking, or they are 10U warriors, or they are using demo accounts, or they are simply analyzing the long and short positions. You should know that anyone with a normal brain can analyze the market in a seemingly reasonable way, but in the financial market, analysis is the least useful. Most people's purpose for analysis is just to prove they are correct, to satisfy their vanity, and then to ask you to follow their rhythm. You can't keep up with it. #币安区块链周
On December 1st, the symptoms of the group friends have eased, and no one is fantasizing about a bull market anymore. The group has become much quieter, as if everyone has seen through the reality and has started to find a way to make a living again. Some delivery people picked up the warm lunch boxes that were thrown away in the morning, the courier pulled the tricycle out of the ditch, the ride-hailing driver called back the passenger he just argued with about the price, the KTV princess apologized for the slap she just received, the waiter who just left turned back to tie his apron, telling the boss he just went out for a smoke. The boss thinks he is very diligent and doesn't procrastinate, even going out for a smoke so quickly, and the person tightening screws immediately picked up the wrench on the ground again. No one has given up on themselves, believing that the group will soon return to its former liveliness. #BinanceBlockchainWeek
The logic of this trade is very clear: it's about making right-side trades during a fluctuating upward trend, but I was hit by unexpected news and had to close near the cost price.
Surely, some might wonder why I didn't close near 3100; it's because the news was sudden and unpredictable, so having a certain profit and pushing for protection indicates that risk control is in place.
So how should we operate next? If the trend rebounds, we can consider shorting near btc88000.
Then, for the second test of support, we can consider bottom-fishing and going long around the densely distributed levels of 82000-83000.
Currently, we are just waiting for these two points to trade; with a calm mindset, there are plenty of opportunities. #加密市场反弹 $ETH
trader凯哥
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Continue to hold more ETH, looking at around 3150-3200.
Send the air force home to plant potatoes. #币安HODLer空投AT
The stop loss of 2965 has already been hit. It lost less than half a point. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates unexpectedly this morning. Such sudden news is unpredictable. There's nothing much to say; just ensure risk control is done well.
Next, look for opportunities to short rather than continuing to go long; the bullish structure has been completely destroyed. #币安HODLer空投AT $ETH
trader凯哥
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2975 successfully received more, the position is still good. Moved the stop loss to 2965. Continue to hold the target profit of 3150-3200. $ETH {future}(ETHUSDT) #币安HODLer空投AT