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#山寨币市场回暖

大波动前的平静

1.BTC近几天都在窄幅盘整，上方压力位94000一带，下方低点在不断抬高，市场在等待一个突破的契机，10号的降息以及即将到来的QE将会打破市场短暂的平衡

2.在QE时期，ETH/BTC将走强#加密市场观察

If you believe the next round of the bull market in the cryptocurrency market will continue to develop, instead of betting on uncertain altcoins, you might consider buying stocks like Coinbase that are deeply tied to the industry.

In the last round (2023–2025), Bitcoin's increase did not reach ten times, and many altcoins hardly rose at all, but Coinbase's stock rose tenfold, and crypto-related stocks like CRCL also had increases that rival altcoins, with a higher probability of rising.

The biggest difference between the cryptocurrency market and stocks is "who is setting the price." As long as a company is genuinely making money, has a business, and has a future, even if the index falls, it can slowly recover, and even continue to rise higher because of its value.

However, the crypto world is not like that at all. There are no earnings, no cash flow, and only Bitcoin and Ethereum truly have pricing power. Once they go down, regardless of the quality of other coins, they all fall together, and it’s a multiple drop without any negotiation.

According to the normal cycle: altcoins can fall hard, but they should rebound even stronger — this has been the trend in the crypto world for years. Bitcoin may double, and altcoins can run 5 to 10 times.

But this time, it has completely reversed:
When it falls, it still crashes; when it rebounds, it can't keep up, and the gains don't even reach the shadow of Bitcoin. Simply put, it’s "when it falls, you can't escape; when it rises, it's not your turn."

The root cause is that this time liquidity, confidence, and structure have changed. Altcoins haven't received the necessary capital push and are left passively following the market's decline. The entire market presents this strange state:
Altcoins = only bear the downside, not enjoy the upside.

This is why many people feel "how is this completely different from expectations," but this is not your problem; it’s just that this cycle is inherently distorted.

The distribution time of this round of bull market can be temporarily understood as December 2024 to October 2025, lasting about 300 days. What is happening now is not from a god's perspective; we can only make assumptions;

The specific process is that in December 2024, it first touches 100,000, consolidating at a high level for more than 2 months. Then, news about the self-directed Sino-U.S. trade war by Trump causes Bitcoin to drop back to 75,000. Afterward, with the easing of the trade war, Bitcoin rebounds all the way back to near the previous high and breaks through the previous high to reach 126,000. The entire process of this rise also takes 3 months. However, the difference is that the second time it consolidates at a high level for 3 months, ultimately starting a downtrend in October, with the whole process lasting 11 months;

Currently, the cycle of the last bull market's distribution above 55,000 and the cycle of this bull market's distribution above 100,000 are extremely similar. The actions of the main force in a short period may be biased, but in terms of the larger cycle, the actions of the main force can be traced;#迷因币ETF

Today's Market Analysis

Looking at the current market trend, I still consider this a rebound rather than a reversal. The rebound structure is very clear: we have already reached the third phase. The first phase was a drop from 116400 down to 93000, followed by a pullback to gather strength; now we are in a larger scale rebound after the drop from 126200.

The key level for $BTC is 98000.

This point happens to overlap with the 0.382 of the 4-hour downtrend, whether the rebound can continue to upgrade, or even turn into a reversal, basically depends on whether this level can be breached.

For $ETH, I mentioned yesterday that once it stands above 3060, it will head straight for 3230. As expected, it did not disappoint, Ethereum has this character: more aggressive and more elastic than Bitcoin. The first target has been reached, and the next pressure above will be at 3660.

As for my own operations, I closed half of my ETH long position around 3200, and will continue to hold the rest. If BTC rebounds to 98000 and ETH rebounds to 3600, I will consider shorting in batches.

I find that trading contracts suits medium-term positions; I am not the type to make several trades in a day. Many people watch BTC and gamble on long or short based on fluctuations of a few hundred dollars on the 15-minute K-line; such people are just here to give away money. #ETH走势分析

Today I saw the CEO of BlackRock say that the cryptocurrency industry is similar to the internet in 1996, which means we are in the first year of an explosive reform in the industry. From a pile of technology, we will move towards the final mile of commercial services for the public. Although the current market is difficult, do not leave this industry; this is always the easiest place for ordinary people to change their destiny.

The Binance Alpha project FIR has made a strong entry into the AI music track, becoming the first "cash flow killer" in this field. Its hard power is supported by data: the platform has frequently produced hit songs, and Kay Tse's new song "City Light Dreaming" successfully ranked in the Top 2 of Tencent Music Charts, with a cumulative play count exceeding 100 million, and copyright revenue is quite considerable.

Even more noteworthy is the series of core benefits that are following closely: FIR is expected to exceed 30 million USD in music copyright revenue by 2026, and will officially open the "copyright pledge pool" at the end of December, at which time 50% of the income will be shared with users participating in FIR liquidity provision in the form of USDT.

Currently, FIR's market value is only about 6 million USD, with a clear and predictable growth in copyright revenue on one side and a very light market value and just started upward momentum on the other, its value potential is visible to the naked eye. Under the strong expectation of copyright revenue sharing, market consensus is expected to form quickly, and the future development potential of FIR should not be underestimated.

Today's turnover rate is not considered very high. Investors' reactions to rising prices are not particularly strong. The main participants in the turnover are still short-term bottom-fishing investors, especially those who bought below $90,000, as they are the most likely to exit. Other investors' reactions are relatively normal.

As mentioned earlier, investors' sentiment regarding price increases is still quite good, with no signs of 'last-minute rebound to escape' appearing. Most investors are not very sensitive to price changes, and the overall chip structure remains stable. However, it should be noted that today's increase is more driven by sentiment, and liquidity has not been fully resolved. btc

$AAVE has created an APP, which is now live on major app stores.

The deposit interest rate inside this is 4% to 5%, while the current USDT financial products on exchanges only offer 2%, and bank large-denomination certificates of deposit only offer 2% as well. Products like Yu'ebao and Qianlong only provide 1.7%. Based on this calculation, excess funds during the bear market can be deposited into AAVE, and it seems unlikely that it will run away for now.

Yesterday a friend asked me, what is a bear market like?

Me: It's like this, at the beginning of December, it seemed there was still hope for the market to recover this month, and when you stop asking this question, it will be time for the bull-bear switch.

Last night, when Ethereum fell to around 2700, leveraged spot players began to concentrate their buying. Considering the previous buying situation, the range of 2700-2600 can temporarily be seen as a buying zone for this round of Ethereum fluctuations;

Last night, there were leveraged spot players buying Bitcoin around 86, but after it subsequently fell below 85, some players stopped their losses and left the market. The remaining players gradually exited at cost or with small profits during the subsequent rebound;

At present, it appears that the main players in the spot market have started to lean towards Ethereum, and for a period of time, Ethereum may be more resistant to declines than Bitcoin; #加密市场回调

Today, Bitcoin plummeted from 92k to 83.8k, evaporating 140 billion USD in 24 hours, with leveraged liquidations nearing 1 billion dollars, and the entire network is wailing.

At the same time, spot gold steadily stood above 2650 USD, and it is still rising slightly.

Why?

Bitcoin essentially remains a 'leveraged version of Nasdaq', while gold is the real safe haven.

The specific killers of the market:
1. Japanese government bond yields surged to 1.877% (a 16-year high) → Yen skyrocketed → The largest scale of Yen arbitrage trading in 30 years (conservatively 34 trillion dollars) collectively collapsed → Risk assets were forcibly sold off.
2. After Thanksgiving, liquidity was extremely thin + algorithmic stop-loss triggered a cascade, the correlation between Bitcoin and US tech stocks soared to 46%, and they were both crushed by the Yen meat grinder.
3. Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of 3.45 billion dollars in November, MicroStrategy's stock price plummeted by 11%, rumors of Tether's instability, and China reiterated its crypto ban over the weekend, all adding fuel to the fire.

So why didn’t gold drop but instead increased?

Because central banks have already bought over 1000 tons in 2025 (led by China, India, and Russia), it is a hard asset to hedge against geopolitical tensions + the collapse of USD credibility, and does not need to rely on Yen leverage, nor does it face ETF redemption pressure.

When risk aversion kicks in, everyone rushes to hold gold instead of Bitcoin.

The script for 2025 has already been written:

Bitcoin continues to ride the roller coaster, while gold continues to reach new historical highs.

Which side are you on? The market has already made the choice for you.