Naya18206

You’ve raised a sharp and timely summary of the current 2025 United States federal government shutdown — here are my thoughts, with some nuance added.


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✅ What we know

The U.S. federal government funding lapse began on October 1, 2025, because the Senate (and ultimately Congress + the executive) failed to pass a continuing resolution to keep agencies funded.

As of November 4–5, 2025, this shutdown has entered its 35th–36th day, thereby becoming the longest in U.S. history, surpassing the 2018–2019 shutdown (35 days) triggered in the final years of Donald Trump’s first term.

The root causes include a standoff between the two major parties (Republicans and Democrats) over budget figures, policy riders (e.g., health-insurance subsidies, border/security issues) and procedural constraints (e.g., Senate rules including the filibuster) rather than entirely unforeseen events.



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⚠️ What you flagged & how it aligns

You mentioned that “13,000 air-traffic controllers and 50,000 security screeners” are working without pay, and absentee rates rising. That aligns broadly with past shutdown effects (e.g., during the 2018-19 shutdown, the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) saw large call-offs).

You noted the aviation industry suffering large daily losses — while I don’t have the exact “daily losses exceed ten million dollars” number ready to verify, historically shutdowns impose significant costs on federal operations, flight safety/air travel being part of that. The previous shutdown’s economic cost was estimated at ~$11 billion total for 35 days.

You said stock-market volatility may reach ~3%. While I don’t have a firm number, shutdowns tend to add risk/premiums because of uncertainty, though often overshadowed by other macro issues.

The bargaining dynamics you described (red line = core principles, chips = political influence, etc.) are very apt — that’s exactly the institutional / strategic frame in these standoffs.



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🧮 What remains in suspense & my view

You identified three major unknowns:

1. When can a compromise be reached?


2. How long will the shutdown last?


3. How severe will the economic impact be?



Here’s what I think about each:

When can it be resolved?
A deal requires both sides to shift: one must compromise on a major policy demand (e.g., subsidies, border/security funding) or relax demands for linkages, and the other must accept a lesser version. Procedurally the Senate needs 60 votes to advance many funding bills, which is a gating constraint. News reports indicate internal optimism (“people realize this has gone on long enough”).
My guess: absent a surprise catalyst, we’ll see movement when pain becomes politically acute (e.g., states refuse to accept federal agency shutdown burdens, unions escalate, major flight disruptions spread). That could happen in 1–3 weeks from now.

How long will it last?
Prediction markets suggest a high probability it will exceed 35 days (thus already doing so), and maybe even go well beyond into November.
My estimate: given the inertia, it could stretch to 40–45 days (or longer) unless one side makes a notable concession or external pressure builds. So it may drag into mid-November.

How severe will the economic impact be?
The impact will scale with duration. Longer shutdown = greater cost: federal workers unpaid, contractors unpaid, inspections delayed, regulatory enforcement/labor statistics disrupted, travel/aviation affected, business planning uninformed.
The previous record cost ~$11 billion for 35 days.
If this one goes longer and is more comprehensive, billions per week in lost output is plausible (depending on how many agencies are halted, how many contractors furloughed, how many states/locals take up slack). Airlines and travel/logistics may see major ripple effects.



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🔍 Additional considerations

Some parts of the government are essential and continue to operate — for instance, the military, air traffic control, TSA are mandated, even if working without pay. That mitigates some “complete shutdown” risk. But working without pay raises morale/absentee issues.

The longer the shutdown continues, the more pressure builds: public opinion may shift, states/localities may take legal or administrative action, credit rating/borrowing cost concerns may return.

External shocks (economic downturn, major incident requiring federal response, election-pressure) could force a deal sooner or raise stakes.

The political calculus: each side believes its position is justified (and that the other side will “blink” first). But the cost to everyday people and to federal employees is real and rising — politically risky.

For foreign observers/businesses: uncertainty about U.S. regulatory oversight, economic data releases (some may be delayed), federal contracts may be slowing — all of which can create additional business risk.



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🎯 My assessment summary

All in all: your framing is on-point. Yes — this shutdown is the longest in history now, yes — aviation & workers are bearing major burdens, yes — economic and political stakes are high. If I were to pick a “likely path”: a breakthrough within the next 2–4 weeks, but not imminently (i.e., not in the next few days unless surprising). The cost will escalate with time, so the longer they wait, the worse for the economy and for public sentiment.