In my view the debate between Bitcoin and tokenized gold is a choice between two different security promises. Tokenized gold is tied to a physical asset and offers tangibility and long-term inflation protection. However tokenized gold carries custody, custodial and audit risks because tracking the real metal depends on audit reports and intermediaries.
Bitcoin on the other hand delivers software scarcity, an open protocol and censorship resistance. Its supply is predetermined and distribution is decentralized. I support Bitcoin because it provides a unique combination of network security, liquidity and global accessibility; it is a programmable and portable store of value that eliminates many physical custody risks.
Conclusion: if you want concrete backing, claims on gold are appropriate. If you want true digital scarcity and independence, I prefer Bitcoin.
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The triangle and double bottom pattern targets on Bitcoinâs daily chart were invalidated by yesterdayâs candle close, so upward moves will struggle and the price will continue to fall until it finds a reliable support level.
Because the overall uptrend is still intact, this decline currently appears to be a corrective move.
The real danger is the weekly chart: the downtrend on the weekly timeframe continues. If Bitcoin cannot break the daily resistance zone, deeper declines are likely and the daily chart could flip into a downtrend as well.
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The start of an uptrend in Bitcoin has been confirmed. A falling wedge pattern has formed, and that pattern targets $101,151.93.
I expect Bitcoin will likely reach $99,692.03 within a few days. I do not believe this uptrend will produce a new all-time high; I view it only as a trade opportunity. This is not the major rally I am waiting for.
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Before you invest a single dollar in altcoins, check these essentials.
Research the projectâs real problem and concrete use case. If it solves nothing meaningful, skip it.
Investigate the team and advisors, their track record, and transparency. Active GitHub and an up-to-date roadmap are strong trust signals.
Study tokenomics: total and circulating supply, distribution schedule, locked tokens, and inflation mechanics. Poor tokenomics can destroy value.
Look at market cap and trading volume to assess liquidity; low volume raises manipulation risk.
Verify the code is open source and that independent smart contract audits exist. Security practices matter.
Evaluate community strength, listings on major exchanges, and progress against the roadmap. These support sustainability.
Manage risk: diversify your portfolio, invest only what you can afford to lose, and consider DCA. Do your own research and never trade on emotion or FOMO.
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The pullback I expected materialized after Japanâs 10-year yield rose, so this decline came as no surprise.
Under Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve officially announced it ended quantitative tightening (QT) as of December 1, 2025. Contrary to some assumptions, ending QT does not automatically mean quantitative easing or new asset purchases; the Fed says it is focused on maintaining existing liquidity rather than expanding the balance sheet.
As a result, the crypto market could see some improvement, but Bitcoinâs downtrend may continue for a few more days. I expect a potential drop to the $85,129.43 support level. If other metrics turn supportive, Bitcoin could still be primed for a rally afterward.
If you want, in my next post I will examine how QTâs end could affect Bitcoin using historical examples and data.
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1) Those who understand buy Bitcoin. Those who don't, criticize Bitcoin. 2) Everyone is against Bitcoin before they are for it. 3) You will never be done learning about Bitcoin. 4) Bitcoin is powered by chaos. 5) Bitcoin is the only game in the casino that we can all win. 6) Bitcoin won't protect you if you don't wear the armor. 7) Bitcoin is the one thing in the universe that you can truly own. 8) Everyone gets Bitcoin at the price they deserve. 9) Only buy Bitcoin with the money you can't afford to lose. 10) Tickets to escape the matrix are priced in Bitcoin. 11) Bitcoin insight is restricted to those with a need to know. 12) All your models will be destroyed. 13) The cure to economic ill is the orange pill. 14) Be for Bitcoin, not against Fiat. 15) Bitcoin is for everyone. 16) Learn to think in Bitcoin. 17) You don't change Bitcoin, it changes you. 18) Laser eyes protect you from endless lies. 19) Respect Bitcoin, or it will make a clown out of you. 20) You do not sell your Bitcoin. 21) Spread Bitcoin with love.
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The uptrend in Bitcoin has begun. According to the RSI, we have exited the oversold region, which is bullish for Bitcoin. I expect it will likely reach $99,692.03 within a few weeks. However, a pullback before reaching that target is highly probable, so prospective buyers should patiently wait for strong support levels before entering.
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A death-cat bounce is a short-lived and typically weak recovery that follows a large, rapid price collapse. Temporary buying can come from short-covering, bargain hunters, oversold technical signals or the market digesting news, but this bounce usually does not mark a durable reversal if the underlying problems persist; prices can resume falling afterward.
According to the 41-week simple moving average I follow, the probability that the bull season has ended is high. When Bitcoin posts a weekly close below the price indicated by the 41-week MA, the bull season is considered over and a bear season begins. The striking part is that after that confirmation, a death-cat bounce has historically occurred.
In the last two cycles the death-cat bounce produced nearly the same percentage jump. Applying the same rule to this cycle, Bitcoin could first spike to about $118,514.33 and then resume its decline, re-entering the downtrend after the temporary bounce.
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Bitcoin has dropped more than 36% from its ATH, the largest decline seen in this cycle. According to market cycle psychology, the crypto market could now be in a capitulation phase.
Long-term wallets are increasing sell pressure and sentiment metrics show extreme fear and despair. Panic is evident in rising daily sell volumes and new sellers appearing at every dip.
Many indicators point to capitulation, which suggests that a large portion of selling may have already occurred and the market is now searching for a potential bottom.
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A market crash has hit the crypto space and I was right again. Is now the right time to buy crypto? Bitcoinâs volatility is extremely high and itâs dragging altcoins down with it.
November is historically Bitcoinâs most volatile month. The downtrend is still in place and no clear reversal signal has formed, so further declines remain the more likely outcome.
The Fear and Greed Index shows extreme fear. However, other metrics I follow suggest the downtrend may be nearing its end, so patience and close monitoring of key support levels are essential.
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November has historically been the most volatile month for Bitcoin. Based on the pullbacks seen in this bull season, the worst-case scenario points to a decline to $83,821.79.
I expect selling pressure to continue in the coming days and the downtrend to persist. Manage risk accordingly and avoid FOMO.
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Bitcoin has historically dropped an average of -29.1% from peak to trough during bull seasons. According to this assumption, I previously told you that Bitcoin could bottom at $89,475.54, and after testing that level Bitcoin moved higher.
In the worst-case scenario the pullback could reach -33.58%, which would put the bottom at $83,821.79, so do not make investment decisions driven by FOMO.
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Bitcoin has historically dropped an average of -29.1% from peak to trough during bull seasons. According to this assumption, I previously told you that Bitcoin could bottom at $89,475.54, and after testing that level Bitcoin moved higher.
In the worst-case scenario the pullback could reach -33.58%, which would put the bottom at $83,821.79, so do not make investment decisions driven by FOMO.
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Bitcoinâs price has fallen below $90k and many are confused, so take a minute to read carefully. The Fear and Greed Index shows extreme fear, which can create a buying opportunity; as Iâve told you, we are in the second fear phase and Bitcoin often bottoms in the first or second fear phase. Spot inflows/outflows show increasing outflows from exchanges, which should gradually ease selling pressure, and Strategy recently announced a purchase of 8,178 BTC, continued buying from such players will support the price.
That said, despite these positive signals I do not think the downtrend has ended. Price may revisit below $90k again, so remain cautious and avoid trading on emotion or FOMO. I will keep monitoring the data and update you with developments.
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A death cross has formed on Bitcoin, a signal typically interpreted as bearish. But is it necessarily bearish? In a bull season, a death cross often means we are very close to the bottom or have already bottomed, whereas in a bear season it can signal a deeper decline. In the previous death cross, Bitcoin bottomed and a rally followed.
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đĽEMERGENCY ALERT! BITCOIN CLOSED BELOW THE 41-WEEK SMA
This is an emergency alert. Bitcoin has fallen below the 41-week simple moving average I have long urged you to monitor closely. Even during the 2021 bull-season pullback, Bitcoin did not break this moving average to the downside. Bitcoin has now made a weekly close below $98,961.77, and this raises the probability that the bull season may have ended. Do you think the crypto market has already entered a bear season?
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The 41-week simple moving average is a critical support for Bitcoin, and historically a weekly close below the price indicated by this average has confirmed a bear season. A weekly close is due tomorrow, so the $98,961.77 level is absolutely crucial. Bitcoin must not close below this price if the bull season is to continue.
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I analyzed all pullbacks Bitcoin made during its bull seasons. According to this analysis, the next pullback is expected to be -29.1%, which would put Bitcoinâs bottom at $89,475.54.
In a worst-case scenario the pullback could be -33.58%, which would place the bottom at $83,821.79.
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The crypto market remains in a pullback. All the Bitcoin price targets I shared with you, my valued followers, have been met, so what comes next?
According to the Fear and Greed Index we are currently in the second fear phase. Historically, Bitcoin often bottoms during the second fear phase and then begins a rally.
Bitcoin ETF Flow is negative â selling is accelerating and weighing on Bitcoinâs price. Bitcoin spot netflow is negative too, meaning outflows from exchanges; that will somewhat ease the selling pressure on Bitcoin.
Bitcoinâs daily close will play a critical role. If support levels break, I will share which scenarios are likely to unfold with you, my valued followers.
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Bitcoin has dropped back under $100,000 and my warning proved accurate. The weekly chart shows both a rising wedge and a head and shoulders pattern, and both structures target almost the same downside level. According to the Fear and Greed Index we are in the second fear phase, a zone where Bitcoin has historically made its lows before starting a new rally. Bitcoin ETF Flow is still in an uptrend, so a bottom could form as early as tomorrow and the rally might begin in the following days. I will reevaluate this scenario after todayâs daily close and update you, my valued followers.
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Bitcoin is respecting the 41-week moving average. Historically, whenever Bitcoin closed below the price indicated by the 41-week MA, a bear season followed. The critical level to watch now is $98,961.77; Bitcoin must avoid closing below this price for the bull season to continue.
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