Hassett shouted 'Golden Year', should the crypto circle be happy or worried?
Hassett's comments over the past few days have gone viral, stating that the US economy is about to welcome a 'Golden Year', and he even thinks a 3% growth rate is not enough, insisting on pushing for 4%. He also added fuel to the expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut next week. As an old hand in the crypto space, my first reaction is not to jump on the optimism but to dig into whether this is honey or poison for our crypto market.
First, we have to acknowledge that an interest rate cut is definitely a huge benefit for the crypto circle. If the Federal Reserve really cuts rates as Hassett suggests, market liquidity will loosen, and money will surely flow into risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. After all, history shows that after the rate cut in 2020, Bitcoin skyrocketed from $5,000 to $69,000, and after the rate cut in September this year, Bitcoin once surged past $117,000. Now with Hassett adding fuel to the rate cut fire, in the short term, the liquidity expectations in the crypto circle are soaring, and this wave of favorable sentiment is indeed solid.
But don’t get too excited; the 'black swan' that Hassett specifically mentioned is key. The US economy looks stable now, but with $35 trillion in debt risks, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, and core inflation that hasn't been suppressed, any one of these could explode and become a black swan. For the crypto circle, these risks are even more fatal—once the economy faces problems, capital will first withdraw to escape risk, and cryptocurrencies as high-risk assets will certainly be the first to be sold off, as seen in the bear market of 2022.
My own strategy is not to go all in just because of this statement; after all, the favorable news may just mean 'buy the expectation, sell the fact'; but I also won’t go empty-handed, as the liquidity dividend from the rate cut is there. I will allocate a small position in mainstream coins, keeping enough cash to wait for the black swan, which is the survival rule for old-timers in the crypto circle.
$FHE
{future}(FHEUSDT)
$BEAT
{future}(BEATUSDT)
$Binance Life
{future}(币安人生USDT)
Hassett's comments over the past few days have gone viral, stating that the US economy is about to welcome a 'Golden Year', and he even thinks a 3% growth rate is not enough, insisting on pushing for 4%. He also added fuel to the expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut next week. As an old hand in the crypto space, my first reaction is not to jump on the optimism but to dig into whether this is honey or poison for our crypto market.
First, we have to acknowledge that an interest rate cut is definitely a huge benefit for the crypto circle. If the Federal Reserve really cuts rates as Hassett suggests, market liquidity will loosen, and money will surely flow into risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. After all, history shows that after the rate cut in 2020, Bitcoin skyrocketed from $5,000 to $69,000, and after the rate cut in September this year, Bitcoin once surged past $117,000. Now with Hassett adding fuel to the rate cut fire, in the short term, the liquidity expectations in the crypto circle are soaring, and this wave of favorable sentiment is indeed solid.
But don’t get too excited; the 'black swan' that Hassett specifically mentioned is key. The US economy looks stable now, but with $35 trillion in debt risks, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, and core inflation that hasn't been suppressed, any one of these could explode and become a black swan. For the crypto circle, these risks are even more fatal—once the economy faces problems, capital will first withdraw to escape risk, and cryptocurrencies as high-risk assets will certainly be the first to be sold off, as seen in the bear market of 2022.
My own strategy is not to go all in just because of this statement; after all, the favorable news may just mean 'buy the expectation, sell the fact'; but I also won’t go empty-handed, as the liquidity dividend from the rate cut is there. I will allocate a small position in mainstream coins, keeping enough cash to wait for the black swan, which is the survival rule for old-timers in the crypto circle.
$FHE
{future}(FHEUSDT)
$BEAT
{future}(BEATUSDT)
$Binance Life
{future}(币安人生USDT)
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
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