94% Behind the Carnival: You might be the last one to take over in this "interest rate cut expectation".
Dear friends, a terrifying yet real number has come crashing down: the market is betting almost 100% that the Federal Reserve must cut interest rates next month!
Just now, on the prediction giant Polymarket, the betting probability for "the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December" has soared to 94%, with a staggering 260 million USD poured into this expectation.
But today, Bai Yue wants to throw a bucket of cold water on you and give you a completely opposite perspective: when everyone already knows a "good news" in advance and is betting wildly, this good news is likely to be exhausted at the moment of the "official announcement"!
Think about it, from institutions to big players, who isn’t watching this 94%? The speculation on expectations has already started and been priced in before the data is released. The real danger lies in the market possibly following a script of "buying expectations, selling facts": the news hasn't landed yet, and everyone is frantically pushing prices to create an atmosphere; when the shoe finally drops, it may be the time for massive profit-taking. If you rush in now, you are likely not waiting for a floodgate to open, but rather carrying the sedan chair for those who have positioned themselves in advance!
So, what should retail investors do?
Don't be the fuel for "good news": the more intense the emotions, the cooler your head should be. Absolutely do not chase highs, especially not the news that has already overdrafted expectations.
Watch the "actions" rather than the "slogans": closely monitor whether BTC and ETH can truly break through previous highs with volume. If they are just moving ambiguously with the news, be cautious. Real liquidity inflow must be a solid breakthrough.
Divide your bullets into three parts: at this position, it is only suitable to use the first part of a very small position to test, and you must set a stop-loss. Save the main ammunition for two opportunities: either wait for the panic low after "selling the facts"; or wait for the confirmation signal of real sustained inflow of funds after the interest rate cut.
For more detailed positions and operations, find Bai Yue; specific ambush points will be announced in the village! I will not only give signals but also teach you how to combine technical and news analysis to judge opportunities yourself, refusing to be a vegetable!
