This Friday marks another major crypto options expiration, arriving at a time when derivatives activity has surged sharply over the past few weeks. On Binance and other major exchanges, futures and options volumes have spiked, signaling that traders are positioning for a new phase of heightened volatility across the crypto market.
Today, roughly 247,000 Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts are set to expire. While this is significantly lower than last week’s massive expiration of nearly 720,000 contracts, the total notional value remains substantial and influential for short-term price action.
Over $4.07 Billion in Options Expiring: A Volatility Trigger Fueled by Mixed Sentiment
According to Deribit, the world’s largest crypto options exchange, the total notional value of today’s BTC and ETH options expiration exceeds $4.07 billion.
Bitcoin (BTC) accounts for approximately $3.4 billion, with total open interest at 36,906 contracts.
The Put-to-Call Ratio (PCR) for BTC stands at 0.91, indicating a nearly balanced market with a slight bias toward downside protection.
The maximum pain level for BTC is around $91,000, slightly below the current market price near $92,279. 
For Ethereum (ETH):
Notional value of expiring options reaches approximately $668.95 million
Total open interest stands at 210,304 contracts
ETH’s Put-to-Call Ratio is lower at 0.78, signaling a more optimistic outlook compared to Bitcoin
ETH’s maximum pain level is $3,050, while current price trades near $3,180 
The concept of “maximum pain” refers to the price level where the greatest number of options expire worthless, causing maximum losses to option holders. Price often gravitates toward this level near expiration due to hedging flows.
For comparison, on November 28, the market witnessed an enormous $15 billion options expiration, including 145,482 BTC contracts ($13.28B) and 574,208 ETH contracts ($1.73B)—making today’s event much smaller but still highly relevant.
While BTC options positioning suggests cautious neutrality, Ethereum traders appear distinctly more bullish, reinforcing current relative strength between the two assets.
Quiet Rotation Into 2026 Expiries Signals Long-Term Conviction
Despite short-term price fluctuations, options data reveals a silent but meaningful shift in positioning toward mid-2026 maturities—especially for Bitcoin. Institutional players are:
Increasing long-dated Call positions
Positioning for rate cuts
Betting on sustained ETF inflows
Anticipating an environment of improving liquidity
According to analytics firms like Laevitas, rising open interest across longer timeframes suggests traders are preparing for a multi-quarter recovery cycle, not just a short-term bounce.
This reflects the ongoing maturation of the crypto derivatives market, where sophisticated capital now dominates volume and strategic positioning.
Market Sentiment: Short-Term Caution, Long-Term Optimism
While the long-term setup looks constructive, near-term sentiment remains divided.
A December 2 report from Greeks.live describes traders as cautiously optimistic, believing the market may have already formed a bottom—but still frustrated by:
Choppy price action
Sudden fakeouts
Low follow-through on rallies
The report also highlights that:
Put skew remains elevated, showing that downside risks are still being actively hedged
Many traders prefer short-term Put-selling strategies
There is widespread reluctance to chase aggressive Call positions after previous volatility shocks
Meanwhile, compressed volatility in Bitcoin has pushed traders toward Ethereum options, where volatility premium remains more attractive.
Capital Rotates Toward Yield and Capital Preservation
Deribit also reports a broader transition toward:
Capital-efficient strategies
Yield-based structures
Lower-risk income generation
Rather than chasing aggressive 5x–10x payoff trades, traders are prioritizing:
Steady yield
Risk-controlled positioning
Portfolio preservation amid macro uncertainty
What to Expect After Today’s Expiration
Ahead of today’s expiration, traders should expect:
Short-term volatility spikes
Temporary price distortions near max pain zones
Increased hedging activity around key levels
However, once Deribit settles expiring contracts later today, markets could stabilize rapidly as traders reposition into new cycles of futures and longer-dated options.
Beneath the surface noise, the quiet institutional bet remains clear: many are positioning for a sustained recovery heading into 2026.
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