Over the past week, Ethereum (ETH) has clearly outperformed Bitcoin (BTC) in both price action and institutional capital flow, strengthening the narrative of capital rotation from BTC into ETH and large-cap altcoins.
In just the last two weeks, spot ETH ETFs recorded $360 million in net inflows, nearly three times higher than BTC’s $120 million, signaling a meaningful shift in investor preference toward Ethereum.
This surge in demand comes as ETH continues to benefit from:
Tokenization narratives
Layer-2 expansion
RWA adoption
And rising stablecoin settlement volume
Retail Accumulation Is Rising – But a Controlled Pullback Remains Possible
According to CryptoQuant, the average spot order size shows a notable behavioral shift. When ETH dropped below $2,700 on November 21, retail buying activity sharply increased, triggering a demand-driven rebound.
However, history suggests that retail-led recoveries from local bottoms often face a liquidity retest, designed to shake out late buyers before a sustainable uptrend begins. This implies ETH may still experience a controlled corrective phase to rebalance leverage before expanding higher.
At present, ETH’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) sits near 0.22, indicating a neutral-but-positive market structure:
Investors are in moderate profit
No signs of excessive euphoria
Risk of panic selling remains low
As long as NUPL remains above 0.20, market psychology continues to support further upside once momentum resumes.
ETH Gains Structural Advantage Over Bitcoin
From a higher-timeframe technical perspective, Ethereum currently holds a stronger market structure than Bitcoin:
ETH has confirmed a bullish Break of Structure (BOS) above $3,200
Previous resistance has now flipped into support
This opens the door for continuation toward higher liquidity zones
Meanwhile, Bitcoin still needs a daily close above $96,000 to fully confirm its breakout, placing ETH in a short-term structural leadership position.
The ETH/BTC daily chart further confirms this rotation:
The pair has broken above a 30-day accumulation range
Successfully retested the 200-day SMA, a level that has acted as strong structural support since July
Historically, reclaiming the 200-day SMA followed by range expansion often precedes ETH outperformance cycles
Key Price Targets: Is a 20% Rally Realistic?
If BTC holds above $94,000 and successfully closes above $96,000, broad altcoin selling pressure should fade. Under that condition:
ETH is likely to retest the swing high near $3,650
If momentum holds, the next major extension sits near $3,900
That would represent an upside potential of roughly +20% from current levels
Major liquidity clusters are concentrated between $3,650 – $3,900, making this zone a natural magnet if bullish conditions persist.
✅ Trading Setup (Education Only – Not Financial Advice)
🔵 BUY Zone:
Primary Buy: $3,080 – $3,150
Aggressive Buy: $2,950 – $3,000 (if liquidity sweep occurs)
🎯 TAKE PROFIT (TP):
TP1: $3,450
TP2: $3,650
TP3 (Extension): $3,880 – $3,920
🛑 STOP LOSS (SL):
Conservative SL: $2,880
Aggressive SL: $2,820
➡️ Risk/Reward remains favorable as long as ETH holds above $2,950 support.
Final Outlook
Ethereum is currently:
Leading Bitcoin in ETF inflows
Holding a stronger bullish structure
Showing early signs of institutional-grade capital rotation
And regaining dominance on the ETH/BTC ratio
While a short-term pullback remains possible, the overall structure still favors continuation toward $3,650–$3,900, provided Bitcoin stabilizes above key support.
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