Recently, when I opened the market software, the K-line of gold made my blood pressure fluctuate — this surge feels like riding a rocket, and every day there are brothers asking in the background, 'Should I jump in?' 'How high can it go?' But to be honest, the more the gold price surges, the more uneasy I feel; it’s not that I envy those who got in early, but the signals behind it are too familiar.
After ten years in crypto and macro analysis, I've long figured out a rule: every major bull market for gold is almost always a 'child born from crisis'; this is not alarmism, and we can understand it by looking at history.
The gold rush from 1971 to 1980 saw prices soar by 20 times, coinciding with the global financial crisis in 1974; the gold bull market that started in 2001 was even more intense, climbing steadily until 2011, with the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis acting like 'fuel' that pushed gold prices to historical peaks at the time. This is no coincidence; the property of gold as a 'safe-haven hard currency' is only fully activated when global capital is in a panic.
Right now, what I'm most focused on is not the gold price itself, but the dollar's situation—I'm most afraid it will repeat the kind of crash from 1971. Don't think this is a fantasy; the current global exchange rate volatility and geopolitical risks are piling up. If the dollar really has some issues, no one can guarantee how crazy gold can go. To take a step back, even if it doesn't reach the point of collapse, if policy shifts lead to a long-term weakening of the dollar, then the expected rise in gold has already been digested by the market in advance.
Here's a heartfelt truth from the crypto circle: many people see gold and mainstream crypto assets as 'similar safe havens', but in reality, the differences are huge. Gold's strategy of 'buying expectations and selling facts' has been played for decades—when the dollar really plummets, it might first pull back; and if a crisis suddenly erupts, initially everyone will rush to grab cash, gold is also likely to take a tumble, referencing 2008, when gold also fell 20% in the early stages of the crisis, before eventually peaking. The crypto market is wilder, fluctuations will be even more exaggerated than gold; during last year's FTX incident, even Bitcoin plummeted, let alone smaller coins.
So don't blindly chase high prices! Whether it's gold or crypto, you need to understand its position in the trend first. Crises have always been half 'danger' and half 'opportunity'; when the time comes, not only gold, but also quality crypto projects, and even value stocks that have been mistakenly killed, will fall to the 'floor price', so there's no need to stick stubbornly to one variety.
Brothers, what we should be doing now is not staring at the market every day calculating profits, but quietly accumulating capital! Otherwise, when the opportunity truly arrives, you will only have 'air positions' in hand, and can only watch others pick up chips, and that will really make you regret slapping your thigh! I can't say a crisis will definitely come next month, but every time there is movement in the market, I will clarify the underlying logic—after all, we are investing, not gambling.
To be honest: the crazier gold prices rise, the closer we are to the risk of a 'market shift'. Follow me, this old hand, next time you see any 'crazy market', I'll help you figure out if it's an opportunity or a pitfall, which is certainly better than you blindly pondering and stepping on a landmine, right?
