The Bitcoin market now is a replica of early 2022
And this is what it means for your wallet
What we see in Bitcoin is not just a price correction, but a precise and concerning echo of the conditions that preceded a bearish phase in the first quarter of 2022. The market stands on the edge of a cliff, between a potential bottom and an imminent collapse.
Let's dive into the analysis of data from on-chain and off-chain to understand the big picture.
What do the blockchain data tell us? (Chart analysis)
When we analyze the data directly from the blockchain ledger, we reveal a truth that candlestick patterns alone do not show.
1️⃣ #Pain_Index: More than 25% of the market is in the loss zone, just like in early 2022, where data shows that more than a quarter of the Bitcoin supply was purchased at prices higher than the current price. This means that a large segment of investors is suffering from unrealized losses, creating immense selling pressure.
And the more this "pain" increases, the greater the risk of these investors capitulating and selling at a loss, which could drive the price further down.
2️⃣ #Last_Line_of_Defense: The true market mean has found temporary support at this critical level, which represents the average purchase price for all active currencies in the market.
Imagine it as the "break-even price" for actual investors. Historically, staying above this line means we are in a correction or accumulation phase, while breaking it is a clear signal for the start of a deep bearish market. Currently, stabilizing the price above it is what gives the market a glimmer of hope.
3️⃣ #Glimmer_of_Hope: Capital momentum remains positive despite all the negative indicators, and new money continues to flow into the Bitcoin market, albeit at a much slower pace than the peak in 2025.
This flow, currently estimated at +8.69 billion dollars per month, is the hidden force preventing a complete collapse and supporting the price at current support levels. As long as this momentum remains positive, the chance of forming a true bottom remains.
4️⃣Even the "whales" feel the pressure
Long-Term Holders are still selling at a profit, but their profit margins are shrinking rapidly, which reflects another pattern similar to what happened in 2022. This indicates that even the most patient and confident investors in the market are beginning to feel anxious and prefer to secure lower profits rather than risk losing them.
🟢Market pulse off-chain: Caution prevails among all
If blockchain data is the X-ray of the market, then platform and derivatives data are the pulse meter.
1️⃣Institutions are taking a step back for the first time in a long while, with net flows into Bitcoin ETFs turning negative. This means that institutional demand, which has been a major driver of the market, has cooled significantly. Concurrently, the CVD indicator shows that selling pressure in the spot markets outweighs buying, confirming overall weak demand.
2️⃣The speculators are withdrawing from the derivatives arena, and we see a clear decline in risk appetite. Open Interest in futures contracts has dropped, indicating that the size of leverage and speculation is decreasing. Additionally, Funding Rates have stabilized at neutral levels, suggesting a lack of strong bets on either upward or downward movements. This reduces the likelihood of rapid collapses due to liquidations, but it also reflects a state of extreme caution and anticipation.
🚨The options market tells a story of caution, revealing the psychology of professional traders:
1️⃣Expectations of calm volatility: Implied volatility has decreased, indicating that the market does not expect violent price movements in the near term.
2️⃣Declining fear of collapse: Demand for put options used for protection against declines has diminished.
3️⃣Lack of enthusiasm for upward movement: More importantly, activity has shifted to selling call options, especially at the $100,000 level. This indicates that traders are not betting on a breach of this important psychological level soon; rather, they are selling the probability of it occurring to collect premiums.
4️⃣Opportunity for professionals: The implied volatility priced in options has become lower than the actual volatility occurring in the market. This creates an ideal environment for professional traders following "Long Gamma" strategies, where they can profit from actual price movements that exceed market expectations.
#Summary
The market is currently in a delicate balance, akin to walking on a tightrope. On one hand, we have weak demand and a fragile market structure reminiscent of the start of a bear market. On the other hand, we have capital momentum that remains positive and strong technical support at the "true market cost average."
#Critical_levels_to_watch:
✅The critical battleground:
96,100$ - 106,200$ Staying above this range means that the market is in a phase of accumulation and building a bottom.
✅Last line of defense:
The real cost average of the market breaking it could be a signal to enter a deeper bearish market.
✅Psychological resistance:
100,000$ Selling call options at this level makes it a strong barrier.
This is not a time for high risk, but for careful monitoring. Any continuous weakness below the "true cost average" is a signal to exit short-term positions.
However, stability above the $96,000 range may represent an opportunity to build long-term investment positions with extreme caution.
Share your opinion in the comments: Do you think we are witnessing the formation of a historical bottom, or is further decline ahead?
#عملات_رقمية #تداول_فوري #تداول #تحليل_بيتكوين #BTC
