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The Bank of Japan's "ultimate interest rate" remains shrouded in mystery! If there is another rate hike this month, how will the market respond?
What is the Bank of Japan's "policy trump card"? Ueda Kazuo's latest statement has directly accelerated market heartbeat!
He stated in Congress: the neutral interest rate can currently only be estimated within a "rather wide range," with no specific value determined! But he hinted that this is key to deciding the future trend of interest rates.
Key information points:
1️⃣ The Bank of Japan internally estimates the neutral interest rate to be around 1%-2.5%, with a very wide range!
2️⃣ The market generally expects another rate hike this month, pushing interest rates closer to the neutral level.
3️⃣ Ueda emphasized that "there is uncertainty," but the central bank is trying to narrow the estimation range.
What signal does this send?
· If a rate hike is implemented this month, it may mean that Japan's ultra-loose policy, which has lasted for many years, is accelerating its shift.
· However, the "wide range estimation" also leaves a question: how aggressive will the rate hike path be? Will policy adjustments be repeated?
Especially sensitive to the market:
As the last major central bank in the world to exit negative interest rates, Japan's policy shift not only affects the yen but also influences global capital flows. If the pace of rate hikes exceeds expectations, will it trigger volatility in safe-haven assets? And the ambiguous outlook may bring what kind of expectation differences to the market?
Ueda's statement, "We do not know the precise level," leaves the market with unlimited imagination space...
What do you think?
· Will the Bank of Japan act decisively this time, or continue to "take one step at a time"?
· Will changes in the global liquidity environment trigger a chain reaction in the crypto asset space?
Feel free to leave your observations in the comments!👇
