Ethereum's price has risen by more than 13% since December 1, supported by a broader market recovery and growing optimism leading up to today's Fusaka upgrade, which improves the efficiency with which the network processes transactions. ETH is still more than 17% lower than last month, but the recent increase and various technical signals resemble what happened just before the Pectra upgrade in May 2025, when Ethereum rose 56% in seven days.
The question now is simple: can Fusaka cause such a movement again?
Conditions resemble Pectra: And large buyers are returning.
During the Pectra phase (May 6–13), Ethereum rose by 56% after a standard bullish divergence. That pattern occurs when the price makes a lower low, but the RSI (Relative Strength Index, a momentum indicator from 0 to 100) makes a higher low. This often indicates sellers losing control, even though the chart still looks weak. More of a trend reversal.
P.S.: The Pectra upgrade occurred on May 7, 2025.
The same pattern is forming now.
Between November 4 and December 1, ETH made a lower low, but the RSI formed a higher low. This reflects the exact structure that appeared before the Pectra movement.
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Large holders also show early accumulation.
The number of Ethereum addresses holding at least $1 million has increased from 13,322 to 13,945, a rise of 4.68%. Since each wallet holds a minimum of $1 million, this reflects at least $623 million in additional capital entering the network of top holders. Large buyers looming for a significant technical upgrade is historically a constructive sign.
Together, the divergence pattern and new large wallet inflow create an argument that Fusaka could act as a catalyst — if the important breakout level is surpassed.
A cost-basis cluster and one Ethereum price level decide everything.
Whether ETH shows a Pectra-style expansion depends on overcoming a single supply wall. Glassnode’s Cost Basis Distribution reveals the heaviest nearby supply cluster between $3,154 and $3,179, where approximately 2.76 million ETH resides. This aligns almost perfectly with the resistance in the chart at $3,166 (a strong resistance and support line).
A clear daily Ethereum price candle above $3,166 would:
• indicate that buyers have nearly absorbed the largest supply zone.
• creating room for a push towards $3,653.
If the momentum reflects the Pectra structure, a 56% expansion from the lows in December would target around $4,262, which also coincides with a strong historical boundary.
At the bottom, the structure of ETH weakens below $2,996. Losing this range exposes $2,873, and if selling pressure increases, $2,618 becomes the deeper support point to watch for the Ethereum price.
