#美联储重启降息步伐

Will the Federal Reserve lower interest rates in December? Please leave your prediction 🙂

Currently, the market and most institutions generally expect the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in December 2025. The Federal Reserve will hold a policy meeting on December 9-10, at which the results of the interest rate adjustment will be clarified. The specific situation is as follows:

1. Institutions and market expectations are one-sided: Most mainstream investment banks, including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase, predict that rates will be cut by 25 basis points this month; the CME 'FedWatch' tool shows that the current market expects a 25 basis point cut with a probability of 87.6%, while only 12.4% believe that rates will remain unchanged in the 3.75%-4% range. Only a few institutions, such as Morgan Stanley and Standard Chartered Bank, hold the opposite view, believing that rates will remain unchanged.

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2. There is support for policy and economic levels: Recent signals from core Federal Reserve officials, including New York Fed President Williams, have been dovish, stating that the threat of weak employment is greater than inflationary pressures, providing policy guidance support for rate cuts; at the same time, the U.S. labor market is weak, with an unemployment rate approaching 10% for graduates with a bachelor's degree or higher, and poor non-farm payroll data. These economic performances have also become important factors driving expectations for rate cuts.