#美联储重启降息步伐

Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in December? Please leave your predictions.

Currently, the market and most institutions are generally optimistic about the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December 2025. The Federal Reserve will hold a policy meeting on December 9-10, during which the results of interest rate adjustments will be clarified, as follows:

1. Institutions and market expectations are one-sided: most mainstream investment banks, including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase, predict a 25 basis point rate cut this month; the CME 'FedWatch' tool shows that the current market expects a 25 basis point cut with a probability of 87.6%, while only 12.4% believe that rates will remain unchanged in the 3.75%-4% range. Only a few institutions, such as Morgan Stanley and Standard Chartered, hold the opposite view, believing that rates will remain unchanged.

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2. There are supporting reasons on the policy and economic levels: recent signals from core Federal Reserve officials, including New York Fed President Williams, have been heavily dovish, stating that the threat of weak employment is greater than inflationary pressures, providing a policy-directed support for rate cuts; at the same time, the U.S. labor market is weak, with the unemployment rate for graduates with a bachelor's degree or higher nearing 10%, and disappointing non-farm employment data—these economic performances have also become important factors driving expectations for rate cuts.