The news disclosed by Reuters that 'China may consider issuing a RMB-based stablecoin' has stirred up significant waves in the global financial and cryptocurrency markets. The fact that this topic, long regarded as a 'taboo' in policy discussions, has come to the surface is itself enough to be interpreted as an important signal of a shift in direction.


This sudden discussion is not without reason. From the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) researching the use of stablecoins for cross-border oil settlements, to Hong Kong actively promoting a stablecoin regulatory sandbox, and the grassroots exploration of offshore RMB stablecoins, all indicate that the narrative around RMB stablecoins is entering a new and more complex stage. However, in the face of this potential move that may reshape the global financial landscape, the internal voices in China are not unanimous; instead, they present a complex picture of official caution, market enthusiasm, and public skepticism interwoven.


Optimism and expectation


In the eyes of supporters, the renminbi stablecoin carries tremendous strategic opportunities. The most direct driving force comes from the challenge to the current monopoly of US dollar stablecoins. As market analysts have said, currently, over 99% of the global stablecoin market share is occupied by US dollar stablecoins, and "China's move is obviously an attempt to break this monopoly." From the severe crackdown on cryptocurrencies in 2021 to the current reassessment of stablecoins, this shift is seen as China's realization that "the digital currency pie is too big to let the US eat alone"—a strategic awakening.


This expectation has been echoed on social media. Some Chinese-speaking users describe it as a "good thing," believing that it benefits not only the overall cryptocurrency market but may also provide ordinary people with "a cleaner channel for money." Financial analyst "qinbafrank" pointed out from a more macro perspective that the breakthrough for the renminbi stablecoin is likely to lie in "offshore renminbi (CNH)." He emphasized that Hong Kong has a nearly trillion-dollar offshore renminbi market size, coupled with potential pilot projects like the Shanghai Free Trade Zone and Hainan Free Trade Port, providing a natural soil for the development of the renminbi stablecoin.


The specific application scenarios of this strategic vision are also gradually becoming clear. China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) disclosed that it is studying the feasibility of using stablecoins for cross-border oil payments, which is a strong signal. Traditionally, oil settlements have been the domain of globally dominant currencies. If the renminbi can leverage stablecoins to enter this critical channel, it will undoubtedly greatly enhance its share in the global payment system (currently accounting for only about 2.88% in SWIFT). This "Digital Silk Road," serving Belt and Road trade and independent of the SWIFT system, is moving from grand narrative to concrete practice.


Caution and vigilance


However, beyond the eager market expectations, the warning from former PBOC governor Zhou Xiaochuan represents the caution and calmness of the official decision-making layer. In a closed-door seminar, he comprehensively analyzed the potential risks of stablecoins from six dimensions, providing a sobering counterbalance to this wave of enthusiasm.


From the central bank's perspective: preventing currency oversupply and high leverage. Zhou Xiaochuan pointed out that the core risk lies in the issuer potentially "issuing currency without sufficient reserves" and subsequently generating a "high leverage amplification" multiplier effect through storage, loans, and collateral in the subsequent circulation. In the event of a bank run, the risks far exceed the capacity of reserves. He emphasized that the custody of reserves should be handled by the central bank or its recognized institutions; otherwise, it is difficult to reassure.


From the perspective of financial service models: a calm judgment on "decentralization" and "tokenization." He reminds that not all financial assets and service links are suitable for tokenization and decentralization. Taking retail payments as an example, China's mobile payment and digital renminbi systems have achieved extremely high efficiency, and currently, "the theoretical basis for replacing account-based payment systems with comprehensive tokenization is insufficient."


From the perspective of payment systems: compliance challenges are severe. Stablecoins must meet strict compliance requirements such as identity verification (KYC), anti-money laundering (AML), and counter-terrorism financing (CFT), but the stablecoin payment services currently available in the market show significant deficiencies in this regard.


From the perspective of market trading: beware of market manipulation and the lack of investor protection. The stablecoin market has seen cases of price manipulation and fraud, but the existing regulatory framework is still insufficient to effectively address these issues. If unqualified investors are further attracted to the market, the risks will be magnified.


From the perspective of micro-behavior: the boundary between commercial interests and public services. The payment system has the public attribute of infrastructure and should not be completely left to profit-seeking commercial entities. We must be wary of stablecoins being overly used for asset speculation, leading to financial instability.


From the perspective of circulation paths: the real demand scenario is key. Without sufficient application scenarios, stablecoins may "not be issued." If the main payment route is not smooth, its circulation may overly rely on virtual asset speculation, leading to concerns about health.


Zhou Xiaochuan's remarks clearly outline the core concerns of regulators: while embracing financial innovation, how to ensure the safety and stability of the national financial system remains an unshakeable bottom line.


Skepticism and worry


Beyond the optimistic strategists and cautious regulators, there exists a third voice—skepticism and worries from the public. These voices mainly appear on overseas social media but genuinely reflect the deep concerns of a portion of the populace.


The user "Zhijiangjinyu" provides a representative comment, sharply pointing out: "The renminbi stablecoin is like China's internal circulation—it will only harvest the Chinese people." He worries that if the stablecoin project fails, ordinary users will have nowhere to complain. The deeper concern is that the reserve assets of the stablecoin may be used to solve local government debt issues, such as bonds included in local government financing platforms (LGFV), with the "final bill still falling on the speculative retail investors."


This distrust is also reflected in doubts about the implementation path. Some comments suggest that under strict capital controls, for the renminbi stablecoin to truly circulate, it will inevitably require strict identity verification, which contradicts the anonymity pursued in the crypto world. Others believe that the so-called "renminbi stablecoin" may just be another way of saying the internationalization of the official digital renminbi (e-CNY), and it is unlikely that a completely free-flowing, independent stablecoin system on a public chain will be issued.


Conclusion


Integrating various viewpoints, an outline of a roadmap for the future of the renminbi stablecoin gradually emerges. It is no longer a simple "prohibition" or "release," but a more sophisticated combination of strategies.


Firstly, "offshore first, onshore strictly controlled" will be an insurmountable red line. All effective explorations are concentrated in the offshore renminbi (CNH) field. This ensures effective isolation of risks from China's mainland financial system, preventing it from becoming a "Trojan horse" for capital outflow.


Secondly, the strategy of "building the road openly while secretly crossing the river" may have quietly unfolded. Hong Kong will be that "road" attracting global attention, serving as an officially recognized pilot for limited sandbox testing. The real focal point of the policy could fall on the "crossing" along the Belt and Road Initiative—encouraging compliant teams (like AnchorX, which has already obtained a license in Kazakhstan) to apply for licenses in friendly countries to serve specific geopolitical economic goals.


Ultimately, the discussion about the renminbi stablecoin has moved from backstage to the forefront. It is no longer a simple technical or financial issue, but is interwoven with geopolitical ambitions, considerations of financial stability, desires for market innovation, and the complex emotions of ordinary people. Regardless of how the final policy unfolds, China is clearly cautiously exploring a unique path in this global digital financial transformation that can achieve "expedition" goals while safeguarding the safety "red line." And the whole world is holding its breath to observe.