#加密市场回调 The recent pullback in the cryptocurrency market is the result of multiple factors resonating, including macroeconomic headwinds, insufficient industry capital support, and a fragile market structure, exhibiting a vicious cycle characteristic of 'decline - liquidation - further decline'. The following is a specific interpretation and outlook:
1. Macroeconomic Level: Dual pressure from liquidity and policy expectations: The tightening of global liquidity expectations is a key driver, with signals of interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan, a delay in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, and marginal contraction of dollar liquidity, making cryptocurrencies, as high-risk assets, the first to be impacted. Additionally, related operations by the U.S. Treasury have withdrawn a large amount of market liquidity, further raising funding costs and suppressing market risk appetite. Furthermore, regulatory policies from multiple countries continue to exert pressure, such as the EU's MiCA legislation restricting stablecoins and various Chinese departments reiterating that virtual currency operations are illegal, exacerbating investors' wait-and-see sentiment.
2. Industry Level: Dysfunction of funding channels + whale operations disturbance: The two major funding reservoirs that previously supported the market have encountered issues, with crypto ETFs experiencing net outflows of $4.9 billion over several weeks, and leading digital asset vaults like Strategy have also slowed their accumulation pace, resulting in a severe shortage of incremental capital. At the same time, whales concentrated on profit-taking after the rebound at the end of November, compounded by comments from the CEO of Strategy about potentially selling Bitcoin to pay dividends, and the downgrade of USDT's stability rating by S&P, which further undermined market confidence.
3. Market Level: Technical breakdown triggers leveraged liquidation: Bitcoin failed to break the resistance at $93,000, and Ethereum's challenge at $3,100 also fell short, resulting in bearish signals such as death crosses appearing technically, triggering profit-taking. After the price broke below key support levels, it led to a chain reaction of liquidations—over $500 million in liquidations across the network within 24 hours, with 177,200 people liquidated, and a high proportion of long positions liquidated. This forced liquidation further depressed prices, creating a vicious cycle.
Looking ahead, short-term attention must focus on whether Bitcoin can hold support at $85,000 - $86,000 and Ethereum at $2,770 - $2,800. If the Federal Reserve releases clear signals for interest rate cuts and ETF funds flow back in, it may trigger a technical rebound; however, Bitcoin may face the risk of probing down to the $80,000 support level. For investors, the current market is experiencing severe volatility, and the risk of blindly bottom-fishing is extremely high; a wait-and-see approach or phased layout may be more prudent.
