Taiwan enters "quasi-war state"? Lai Ching-te spends 12.5 trillion, mainland issues reserve personnel certificates

Recently, amid rising tensions in Sino-Japanese relations, the Lai Ching-te administration has thrown out a huge defense budget and promoted the so-called "2027 military unification" theory, with Ma Ying-jeou criticizing that it is pushing Taiwan towards a "quasi-war state." As China strongly retaliates against Japanese right-wingers, the People's Liberation Army announces the issuance of reserve personnel certificates. Does this mean that the mainland is really preparing for military unification?

1. Lai Ching-te's 12.5 trillion defense budget: Political gamble or defense need?

Lai Ching-te officially announced on November 25-26 that Taiwan will invest **12.5 trillion New Taiwan dollars (approximately 40 billion US dollars)** in a special defense budget over the period of **2026-2033 (within 8 years)**, claiming that the purpose is to "enhance deterrence capabilities and defense resilience, responding to the increasing military pressure from mainland China," and promoting the threat of "mainland military unification of Taiwan in 2027."

The Taiwan authorities aim to achieve two core goals:

First, by 2027: attain high combat readiness capabilities of the joint combat forces, "effectively deter mainland threats." Second, by 2033: establish "comprehensive deterrence capabilities," creating the so-called "Taiwan Shield."

In fact, this is merely the wishful thinking of Taiwan independence advocates! Experts indicate that no matter how much money is spent or how many American weapons are bought, it is no longer possible for Taiwan to have the capital to confront the mainland. Even Taiwan's fighter jets and early warning aircraft, once airborne, could be shot down by mainland missiles; talking about deterring the mainland is truly laughable.

2. Domestic reactions: Outcry, Ma Ying-jeou criticizes "quasi-war state"

Ma Ying-jeou frankly stated: "Lai Ching-te's actions are almost equivalent to declaring Taiwan's entry into '39'; this will push Taiwan into a dangerous abyss."

Public opinion in Taiwan widely criticizes:

- This is a "draining Taiwan" plan, scraping the people's resources to please the U.S. for personal gain. - The defense budget will account for one-third of Taiwan's annual budget, occupying 3.32% of GDP in 2026, with plans to increase to 5% by 2030, seriously harming the interests of the Taiwanese people, which is a typical act of treason. - The biggest problem for the Taiwan military is not money, but a severe shortage of personnel; an increase in budget cannot compensate for the gap in combat power, and it is impossible to gain any advantage.

Taiwan's personnel crisis:

- The number of eligible conscript-age men has dropped below 100,000, and it is expected to be only 74,000 by 2031. - 24.47% of Taiwan's voluntary soldiers retire early, with about 12,900 preferring to pay compensation to escape the military. - Recruitment standards have been continuously lowered: the height requirement has been reduced to 152 cm, restrictions on color blindness and tattoos have been lifted, and even retired soldiers from many years ago are being recalled to fill the ranks.

In fact, many people are unwilling to become cannon fodder for Taiwan independence forces; they clearly state that once the People's Liberation Army launches a unification war, they will surrender directly. What combat power can such a Taiwan military have?

3. Mainland reserve personnel certificates: Modernization of national defense, or a signal of military unification?

Official news: Approved by the Central Military Commission, the People's Liberation Army will formally issue the new "People's Liberation Army Reserve Personnel Certificate" starting from March 1, 2026, while the old version of the "Reserve Officer Certificate" will be phased out simultaneously.

Core features of the new certificate:

- Uses high anti-counterfeiting technology, system-generated unique identity numbers, valid nationwide; - Marks an upgrade of the national defense mobilization system towards standardization, informatization, and precision; - Integrated into the "Reserve Personnel Law" (effective March 2023) supporting system, providing legal guarantees for rapid mobilization in wartime.

Strategic significance:

- Achieves nationwide management of reserve personnel information, facilitating precise cross-regional allocation during wartime; - Millions of reserve personnel (covering multiple arms and professional technical talents) form a seamless combat capability loop with active-duty forces; - This is a normal step in China's national defense modernization and has no direct connection with Taiwan's "quasi-war state."

4. Comparative analysis: Huge gap in military strength between the two sides

Taiwan's defense dilemma:

- Invested heavily in outdated American weapons, with military sales delayed and amounts reaching 19.1 billion US dollars, equipment cannot form combat power. - Taiwan's military is assessed to be able to hold out for a maximum of 30 days under a PLA attack; most analysts believe it will not exceed one week, and even retired generals predict it can only resist for 4 days.

- The actions of "Taiwan independence" are unpopular, and anti-war sentiment is high in the island; a poll of 16,000 netizens shows strong opposition to increasing the defense budget.

Mainland military advantages:

- Focused on new types of combat capabilities such as drones, electromagnetic countermeasures, cyber warfare, and artificial intelligence, it has occupied the high ground of military technology. - The reserve system emphasizes quality and specialization rather than sheer numbers, building a truly "reliable and effective" second line of defense. - Active-duty military personnel number about 2.035 million, with 1.1 million armed police; in wartime, forces can be expanded to 21 million within 72 hours, with industrial capacity producing 300 large warships and 3,000 advanced fighter jets annually.

Peaceful unification is the only way out

Lai Ching-te's 12.5 trillion defense budget is not about "defending Taiwan" but political manipulation, pushing Taiwan to the dangerous edge of a "quasi-war state," ultimately harming the interests of the Taiwanese people.

The mainland's issuance of reserve personnel certificates is a normal measure for national defense modernization, aimed at improving the efficiency of national defense mobilization and has no necessary connection to the "military unification timetable."

Taiwan's return to China is an important part of the international order after World War II, from the Cairo Declaration to the Potsdam Proclamation, and then to United Nations Resolution 2758, the international community has long recognized that Taiwan is an inseparable part of Chinese territory.

Any separatist actions that go against historical trends will ultimately be settled by history. Peaceful unification is the only way out for Taiwan.