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Market prediction ‘battle’ heats up—Polymarket accuses Kalshi of corporate espionage
When BTC drops, the prediction market space has dropped a bomb.

Polymarket publicly accuses competitor Kalshi of engaging in corporate espionage.
The allegations are quite interesting:

Polymarket planned to launch a free grocery flash event on February 12, Kalshi rolled out a similar event 9 days earlier.

Polymarket was set to announce perpetual contract products on April 21, but just an hour before, The Information reported that Kalshi was also preparing a similar product.

Polymarket employees are concerned: the VC firm supporting Kalshi, Paradigm, has an office right across from theirs, raising the risk of screen peeping.

Currently, Polymarket has installed window coverings on some of its office windows and has initiated an internal investigation.
Kalshi denies all allegations, responding that it is “sad and bordering on delusional.”

Additionally, there’s regulatory news: former Republican Congressman George Santos is under investigation by the DOJ and CFTC for allegedly using insider information to bet on whether he would attend Trump’s congressional speech on Kalshi.

The prediction market scene is on fire, and the chaos is real.

#Polymarket

The RWA sector is having its 'Wall Street moment'—but maybe not the one you're thinking of.

This week, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority established a tokenized bond expert group, with institutions like HashKey joining in.
Goldman Sachs, in collaboration with Apex and Archax, launched a tokenized real estate fund.

JPMorgan, Citigroup, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo plan to jointly roll out a tokenized deposit network in the first half of 2027, developed by The Clearing House, enabling 24/7 on-chain settlements.
DTCC is set to kick off a tokenized trading pilot in July, involving a custody asset scale of $114 trillion.

Wall Street is using blockchain to transform itself—not to replace DeFi but to bring securities, bonds, and real estate on-chain.

But keep an eye on this detail: these tokenized assets come with KYC and custody requirements, which aren't fully compatible with Uniswap pools.

Traditional finance is going on-chain, but it might be on 'private chains' or 'compliant chains'.

Is this a bullish or bearish signal for the existing DeFi ecosystem? The data isn't out yet, so let's keep watching.

#RWA #香港Web3

Zcash Hits Emergency Halt, Privacy Coin Sinks Overnight

This weekend's biggest on-chain event isn't BTC breaking 60k, it's Zcash.
Security researcher Taylor Hornby disclosed a serious vulnerability in the Orchard privacy protocol—potentially allowing unlimited ZEC minting without detection.

The news hit, and ZEC plummeted over 40% within 24 hours, at one point dropping over 50%.
The dev team rushed to respond: disabling Orchard, initiating a soft fork, and updating verification keys via a hard fork.

But here's the kicker: Zcash's Turnstile Accounting system can't easily verify if any counterfeit coins have already been minted and circulated.

The market isn't just pricing in the technical fix itself, but rather the uncertainty of whether coins have already been pilfered.
As of now, ZEC has retraced over 60% from its peak, with a 24-hour drop ranking it at the top among all major coins.

In the privacy race, trust is everything. Once the integrity of supply is questioned, even code fixes can't restore confidence.

Ethereum dips below 1700, the cost of L2 'killing' L1 is here

ETH took a nosedive this week, plummeting nearly 19%, crashing from above 2000 to around 1600 bucks.

The median Gas on the mainnet has dropped to below 8 Gwei, hitting a yearly low.

Good news? Transactions are cheaper now. Bad news? ETH isn’t getting burned.

Over the past week, the net supply of ETH increased by about 4,000 coins—making the deflation narrative temporarily ineffective.
Meanwhile, the Base chain's daily active addresses have surpassed 550,000, consistently outpacing Arbitrum. Coinbase has brought users in, but on-chain data shows: most of the active addresses are still just browsing

socials and waiting for airdrops, with DeFi TVL sitting at less than half of Arbitrum's.
There’s also an interesting on-chain move: an address tagged as an 'Ethereum veteran' sold 60,000 ETH at 2040 bucks, then bought back 35,723 coins at an average price of 1563 bucks over the past two days.

That's a 23% spread. Same address, selling high, buying low.

Not a signal. The data speaks for itself.

#ETH

BTC drops below 60k, who's stirring up the panic?

In the past 72 hours, Bitcoin plummeted from above 74k straight down to 60k, hitting a low of $59,207, marking the lowest point since October 2024.

On-chain data breakdown:
Net inflow to exchanges: Approximately 47,000 BTC flowed in over the past week, with Strategy dumping 32 coins (though it’s a drop in the bucket, it carries significant symbolic weight).
ETF funding situation: The spot Bitcoin ETF has seen net outflows for 11 consecutive days, totaling over $1.7 billion in losses, marking the second worst performance in history.

Geopolitical variables: Iran's Supreme Leader's military advisor warns that "conflict may spread to the Indian Ocean," as US-Iran negotiations hit a stalemate, and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalate.
Interestingly, Citigroup analysts point out: it’s not about Strategy selling coins; the real issue is
— there are no new investors entering the market.

With no money flowing into the ETF, new retail investors are being sucked into AI stocks.
360,000 traders got liquidated, with $1.88 billion going up in smoke.
But Standard Chartered says: the bottom is near, maintaining a year-end target of $100k.

Who’s right and who’s wrong? Just recording, not judging.

From June 8 to 13, 7 projects are set to unlock over 1.3 billion tokens: STABLE (6/8, 162 million)\nMOVE (6/9, 162 million)\nLINEA (6/10, 780 million)\nIO (6/11, 10.23 million)\nMOCA (6/11, 275 million)\nAPTOS (6/12, 11.3 million). Altcoins currently account for about 43% of the total crypto market cap. The selling pressure from these unlocks might have already been priced in to some extent. There's also two noteworthy events happening that week: Blockchain Community Day 2026 (6/8-6/12, online), covering RWA, on-chain assets, and cross-chain interoperability. Solana Summit Germany (6/13, Berlin offline), focusing on internet capital markets and Solana's ecosystem expansion. It's going to be a news-heavy week. We'll just have to see how on-chain liquidity reacts.

An address marked on-chain as an "Ethereum OG" has spent $55.8 million over the past two days, averaging $1,563 to buy back 35,723 ETH.

Just a week ago, they sold 60,000 ETH and 9,442 wstETH around the $2,040 mark, cashing out $141 million.

Same address. Sold at $2,040, bought at $1,563.
That's a 23% spread. In terms of token count, they bought back half of their original holdings, but in dollar value, it’s only about 39% of what they sold.

The wallet still holds a significant amount of stablecoins. They might keep buying.
This move doesn’t necessarily indicate that the market has bottomed out. But it does suggest one thing: for this whale, ETH in the $1,500 range has regained its allocation value.

#ETH

BTC dipped to 63k, this time it's a multiple resonance

Monitoring shows BTC has dropped from above 68k to 63.4k in the past 72 hours, then rebounded by 4%.
NYDIG's breakdown is worth a look: funds are flowing into the AI sector, investors are prepping cash for tech IPOs like SpaceX/OpenAI, quantum computing threat narratives are reigniting, and Strategy sold off 32 BTC.

There's another variable: the U.S. Treasury Secretary claims to have seized about $1 billion in crypto assets related to Iran. This direct government intervention in the digital asset market is more significant than any single sell-off.
On-chain indicators show MVRV has dropped to 1.2, with profitable supply falling below 50%. These two metrics are approaching historical bottom territory.

However, the current 53% retracement is far below the previous cycles' 75%-90%. It's only been 242 days since the peak.

Either institutions have fundamentally changed the cyclical behavior.

Or, we haven't really hit the surrender stage yet.

#BTC

Wall Street is really getting in the game, no joke

After Nasdaq approved the tokenized securities trading rules, the NYSE and DTCC followed suit.

DTCC plans to launch a tokenized trading pilot in July, involving an asset scale of $114 trillion (based on custodial assets).
This isn't just 'slapping an image on the chain.' This is the world's largest securities clearinghouse rewriting the settlement layer within its own framework.

What’s being tokenized now isn’t just memes, but stocks, ETFs, and government bonds.

In the short term, this might not be a boon for the existing DeFi ecosystem. Compliant tokenized assets come with KYC and custodial requirements, which aren't fully compatible with the liquidity pools on Uniswap.

But in the long run, Wall Street's entry means that blockchain technology is being recognized. It's just that the path is a bit different from what Satoshi originally envisioned.

#RWA

Over the past month, the total market cap of meme coins on Solana has pulled back by about 55% from its peak. A lot of folks are saying it's 'dead'.

But looking at it from another angle: excluding meme trading volumes, Solana's DEX trading volume still holds steady in the range of $800 million to $1.2 billion daily, which is the highest across all chains.

Two trends are worth noting:

First, the market share of the Jito validator client has surpassed 97%. The biggest downtime risk in Solana's history—validator client centralization—has not materialized as of now.

Second, RWA on Solana has seen a sequential growth of 58%. Although the absolute value is still small ($2.5 billion), the growth rate is faster than that of RWA on Ethereum.

The meme tide receding isn't scary; what's scary is having nothing left after the tide goes out.

Solana has potential, but it's not solid enough yet.

#solana

The median Gas on the Ethereum mainnet has dropped to 8 Gwei today.
It's the lowest this year.

The last time it was this low was during the most desperate times of the 2023 bear market. But now BTC is still at 68k, total market cap is 2.7 trillion, this isn't a bear market.

What happened?

The answer is clear: trading volume has been siphoned off to L2s. The combined daily trading volume of Base, Arbitrum, and Optimism is over 6 times that of the Ethereum mainnet. Users have moved to places with cheaper Gas, which is the expected outcome of EIP-4844.

But there’s a detail: as mainnet Gas drops, the burning rate of ETH decreases. In the past week, the net supply of ETH has increased by about 4,000 coins.

This might be a new issue the Ethereum community has to face. L2 scaling has succeeded, but the narrative of ETH being deflationary might need to be recalibrated.

#ETH #Gas