Bitcoin is reigniting the market's radar after strongly surpassing the $91,000 mark, driven by an explosive combination of expectations for rate cuts, reduced geopolitical tension, and technical signals of recovery. Sentiment is changing... and quickly.

The recent statements from the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John Williams, made it clear that monetary policy is no longer as restrictive as it once was. This was enough for the markets to react: the probability of a rate cut in December now exceeds 85%, according to futures market data.

📉 Less rate pressure = more appetite for risk = more strength for Bitcoin.

Less Global Fear, More Money in Risk Assets

This monetary turn is accompanied by a relief in tensions from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Recent signals of openness to peace negotiations have reduced global uncertainty, pushing capital back toward assets like BTC.

When fear recedes, Bitcoin usually leads the recovery movement.

Divided Whales: Mixed Signal, But with a Solid Base

The on-chain data shows an interesting reading:

✅ Medium wallets (10–1,000 BTC) are steadily accumulating.

❌ Large whales (1,000–10,000 BTC) are still selling part of their positions.

This means that: 👉 The price has found a local bottom, but to confirm a strong bullish trend, large whales need to buy again.

Nevertheless, the accumulation behavior in mid ranges is often a precursor to major movements.

Bitcoin Defends Key Zones and Projects New Targets

From a technical standpoint, the outlook is starting to tilt in favor of buyers:

BTC accurately respected the 100-week EMA near $85,600

The price is already moving above $91,000

The weekly and daily RSI is coming out of bearish territory

The MACD triggered a buy signal

🎯 If this momentum holds, the next major target zone is near $100,000, where they converge:

The 50-day EMA

The key Fibonacci retracement

A historical psychological resistance

On the contrary, as long as it stays above $80,000, the recovery scenario remains dominant.

Message for the Market

Bitcoin does not only respond to charts. It responds to:

Global Liquidity

Monetary Policy

Institutional Confidence

Collective Psychology

And today, all those factors are starting to align again.

It is not euphoria.

It is not a confirmed bottom.

But it is clearly the beginning of a narrative shift.

📈 The question is no longer whether there will be movement…

👉 The question is who will be positioned when it arrives.

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