After seven years in the crypto world, I've found that 99% of people lose money for one reason:
If you can't tell the primary market from the secondary market, you'll always be using the wrong approach.
Simply put:
Primary market = grabbing new stocks (before getting on board)
Secondary market = trading stocks (after getting on board)
Primary market (the game before getting on board)
Essence: Betting on the future with the project team, if you win, you feast; if you lose, you pay the bill.
Real gameplay:
- You're not buying coins, you're buying a story that might succeed or fail.
- Whitelists, private placements, IDOs, Launchpads, NFT Mints are all primary market.
- The price is not set by the market; it's painted by the project team and VC (commonly starting from 0.01-0.1 dollars)
- Entry logic: I believe this team can take TVL from 0 to 1 billion
- Risks: Running away, going to zero, locking up for a year won't resolve it
- Returns: If it works out, it’s 50-200 times (those who understand 2021's STEPN and AXS know)
I have seen friends making 100 times at level one, and I have also seen them cry all night after going to zero.
Level two market (the situation after getting in)
Essence: Betting on emotions with retail investors across the internet, reaping gains when winning, getting cut when losing.
Real gameplay:
- What you’re buying is circulating coins, prices depend entirely on emotions, capital, and KOL recommendations
- Binance, OKX, Uniswap, Blur are all level two
- Entry logic: I believe there will be more fools buying at higher prices next
- Risks: Whip, dumping, whales offloading, black swans
- Returns: Short-term 10%-200%, long-term depends on luck
Since 2025, my highest earnings in level two have been 7 times, and my worst loss has been 90%.
2025 the cruelest reality:
- Early stages of bear to bull: Level one is the true alpha, whitelist is more precious than life
- Crazy phase of bull market: Level two is the harvester, one limit up a day
- Now (November 22): Level one is exhausting, and level two emotions are starting to stir again.
Blood and tears summary:
1. Beginners should practice on level two first, learn about candlesticks, stop losses, and position management, before touching level one (there's no risk control in level one, one shot and you're dead)
2. Level one bets on whether the track will succeed, level two bets on human greed and fear
3. Those who truly make money: Level one buys low + level two sells high, a set of combination punches
Those who only play one side are either working for the other side or paying tuition for risk control
4. 2025 the harshest statement:
Level one focuses on team narratives, level two focuses on capital flows
Only when you understand both are you the market; if you only understand one, you will always be the plate.
Don't ask me anymore 'Can this project be entered?', first ask yourself:
Are you competing for shares at level one, or chasing emotions at level two?
#Level One Market #Level Two Market #web3
