Half a month ago, I published an article (the bear market in the crypto circle has already begun) pointing out that Bitcoin has already peaked, with $126,000 being the highest point of this bull market, and it will gradually enter a bear market from here.
Many people thought that after the liquidation on October 11, Bitcoin could regain strength. But the fact is that the price has fallen below the $110,000 mark again, showing a weak trend.
The US stock market is still rising, and the macro economy has not changed, but why is Bitcoin falling alone?
The answer lies in the four-year cycle.
The halving event of Bitcoin, which occurs every four years, has the greatest impact on its price. It is much larger than any other events, such as macroeconomics, regulatory policies, geopolitical issues, etc.
The halving that happens once every 4 years has given rise to a theory called the 4-year cycle, which is currently the most reliable theory of Bitcoin's bull and bear cycles, bar none.
According to the 4-year cycle theory, the current time is at the end of a bull market. If you don’t believe it, look at the price of Bitcoin 4 years ago; wasn’t that also the peak at this time?
It's simply because the cycle has arrived, so it started to fall. It's that simple; there aren't so many complex reasons.
If you still don't understand, just imagine the 4-year cycle theory as the four seasons. When winter comes, the temperature naturally drops. Do you need to find a reason? Will temporary temperature rises affect the arrival of winter?
What I don't understand is that many people always link Bitcoin to macroeconomics, focusing on the Federal Reserve's data and Powell's speeches. What’s the point?
Satoshi Nakamoto designed such an amazing system that is so simple you only need to know how to read a calendar and understand the 4-year cycle to escape at the peak of a bull market and buy at the bottom of a bear market.
But people like to complicate simple things, insisting on studying macroeconomics, various on-chain data, and doing many unnecessary actions. Why bother?
In the end, I firmly believe in the 4-year cycle; the cryptocurrency market has already entered a bear market, and now is the best time to clear out your holdings.
Bitcoin price at the time of posting: 107700 USD
