If you plan to invest in the cryptocurrency market, please take a few minutes to read this answer word for word, as it may save your life and a family.
Thousands of originally happy families end up broken and devastated, stemming from the pursuit of an unattainable dream of striking it rich in the cryptocurrency market. I believe that if I really want to continue on the trading path, I still need to study diligently. In addition to understanding the fundamentals, analyzing news, and studying technical indicators is also necessary.
If you do not conduct in-depth research and reasonably plan your finances, your funds will eventually be depleted. In the end, as a groundless retail investor, you will only be happy to enter the market and leave in disappointment. There is a reason why some famous technical indicators have stood the test of time. For example, the divergence signals of MACD, the overbought and oversold signals of KDJ, support and resistance signals, etc. While they cannot guarantee profitability, they allow for quantitative analysis based on a relatively mature model, providing investors with a basic direction. In the cryptocurrency market, there is only one way to turn 100,000 into 1,000,000, which is through rolling positions.
Once you have 1,000,000 in capital, you will find that your whole life seems different. Even if you do not use leverage, a 20% increase in spot trading gives you 200,000, which is already the annual income ceiling for most people. Moreover, when you can turn tens of thousands into 1,000,000, you will also grasp some thoughts and logic for making big money. At this point, your mindset will calm down significantly, and from then on, it’s just about copying and pasting. Do not constantly aim for tens of millions or even hundreds of millions; start from your actual situation—talking big only comforts the bull.
Trading requires the ability to recognize the size of opportunities; you cannot always have light positions or always have heavy positions. Play with small positions normally, and when big opportunities arise, then bring out the heavy artillery. For example, rolling positions can only be operated when big opportunities arise; you cannot keep rolling. Missing out is okay because you only need to roll successfully three or four times in your life to go from zero to tens of millions. Tens of millions are enough for an ordinary person to join the ranks of the wealthy.
First, we need to know under what circumstances rolling positions are suitable: currently, only the following three situations are appropriate for rolling positions.
Choosing direction after a long-term sideways volatility hitting new lows.
Buying the dip after a significant drop following a bull market surge.
Breaking through major resistance/support levels on the weekly chart. In general, only these three situations have a higher probability of success; all other opportunities should be abandoned.
General view: Define rolling positions as follows: in a trending market, after significantly profiting using leverage, due to a passive overall decline in leverage, increase trend positions at the appropriate time to achieve compound profit effects. This process of increasing positions is called rolling positions.
The following are methods for manipulating rolling positions:
● Adding positions after floating profits: After obtaining floating profits, you can consider adding to your position. However, before adding to your position, ensure that the holding cost has been lowered to reduce the risk of loss. This does not mean adding blindly after making a profit but rather doing so at the right time.
● Base position + T-trading for rolling positions: Divide your funds into multiple parts, leaving one part as a base position that remains unchanged while using another part for high-selling low-buying operations.
The specific ratio can be chosen according to individual risk preferences and fund sizes. For example, you could choose to roll with half a position, three-tenths as a base, or seven-tenths as a base for rolling, etc. This operation can reduce holding costs and increase profits.
The 'appropriate time' in the definition, in my opinion, mainly has two types:
1. Add positions during a converging breakout trend, and quickly reduce the additional positions after breaking through to capture the main rising wave.
2. Increase trend positions during a pullback in the trend, such as buying in batches at moving average pullbacks.
There are many specific ways to operate rolling positions, the most common being through adjusting holdings. Traders can gradually reduce or increase their holdings based on market changes to achieve profit. Traders can also use trading tools such as leverage to amplify returns, but this will also increase risks.
Several points to note about rolling positions:
1. Enough patience; the profits from rolling positions can be enormous. As long as you can successfully roll a few times, you can earn at least tens of millions to hundreds of millions. Therefore, do not roll easily; look for opportunities with high certainty and nine out of ten chances.
2. What is an opportunity with nine out of ten chances? It is that kind of situation where the price drops sharply, then begins to consolidate sideways, and suddenly surges upward. At such times, the trend is likely to reverse, and you must hurry to get in to avoid missing a good opportunity.
3. Only 10% of people in this market can make money, as it is inherently a zero-sum game.
4. The money you can earn will only arise during 20% of the bull market time; the rest of the time will weed out those without investment logic and patience.
5. Always maintain a mentality to withstand a 30%-50% drawdown to laugh until the end; otherwise, the process will be a torment for you.
6. 40% of retail investors may end early, and there are more pitfalls in this circle than you can imagine.
7. At least 50% of people in this market will choose to trade contracts, most of whom will eventually end up with nothing and lose everything. Remember that contracts are gambling.
8. People trading spot during a bull market have a 60% chance of making money, but only those who can hold steady throughout the entire bull market cycle will be the ultimate winners.
9. It is estimated that 70% of people continuously recharge without ever withdrawing funds; the cryptocurrency market is far more brutal than you can imagine.
10. 80% of people are unable to return to the past due to the wealth effect of this circle, becoming addicted to it just like drug use.
Lastly, #BTC will 100% reach 1,000,000 USD; always believe in this. Just roll more; it is essential to set appropriate stop-loss and take-profit levels. Rolling positions for shorting is a high-risk strategy, as market fluctuations can lead to significant losses. When entering a trade, we should set a reasonable stop-loss level, and if the market trends against our expectations, we should stop loss in time to control our losses. Equally important is setting appropriate take-profit levels to protect profits. This ensures we gain enough profits before the market reverses.
5. Reasonable capital management is also key to steady profits. When conducting rolling shorting operations, we should allocate funds reasonably and avoid investing all funds into a single trade. Diversifying investments can reduce risks and improve overall stability. We should also adhere to risk control principles and avoid abusing leverage to prevent greater losses.
6. Timely tracking of market dynamics is also crucial for profitability. Market conditions are constantly changing, and we should maintain sensitivity to the market to adjust our strategies in time. Keeping up to date and learning relevant technical indicators and trading tools can help us analyze market trends better and increase prediction accuracy.
Rolling shorting in the cryptocurrency market can be a strategy for making profits, but it requires careful operation.
By accurately predicting market trends, setting appropriate stop-loss and take-profit levels, managing funds reasonably, and timely tracking market dynamics, we can steadily gain profits in the market. Of course, if it’s a cryptocurrency like Eth, you can also try forced rolling methods, such as staking, lending, or investing in liquidity pools to obtain safer returns, etc. Specific currencies should also be analyzed individually to avoid liquidity issues.
Let's talk about the risks of rolling positions. Many people think this is risky; I can tell you that the risk is very low, far lower than the logic of futures trading you are playing with. Suppose you only have 50,000; how to start with 50,000? First, this 50,000 should be your profit; if you are still losing, just stop looking.
If you open a position at 10,000 for Bitcoin with a leverage set to 10 times, using a single position model, only opening 10% of the position, which is only 5,000 as margin, this actually equals 1x leverage with a 2% stop-loss. If you stop-loss, you only lose 2%, just 2%? 1,000. How do those who get liquidated end up losing everything? Even if you get liquidated, well, you only lose 5,000, right? How can you lose everything? Suppose you are right, and Bitcoin rises to 11,000; you continue to open 10% of your total funds, also setting a 2% stop-loss. If you stop-loss, you still earn 8%. Where’s the risk? Isn’t it said that the risk is very high? Following this logic... Suppose Bitcoin rises to 15,000, and you smoothly add positions; during this wave of 50%, you should make around 200,000. Capturing two such waves is around 1,000,000. There is fundamentally no compounding; 100 times is earned through two times 10 times, three times 5 times, or four times 3 times, not by compounding 10% or 20% every day or month; that’s nonsense.
This content not only has operational logic but also contains the core internal skills of trading, position management. As long as you understand position management, you cannot completely lose. This is just an example, and the general idea is like this; the specific details need to be pondered over by yourself. The concept of rolling positions itself does not carry risks; not only does it have no risks, but it is also one of the most correct approaches in futures trading. The risk lies with leverage. You can roll with 10 times leverage, and you can also do it with 1 time; generally, I use two or three times. Capturing two times is the same as having tens of times in return, isn’t it? If worse comes to worst, you can use 0.x times; what does this have to do with rolling positions? This is clearly your own choice of leverage; I have never said to use high leverage for operations.
Moreover, I have always emphasized that in the cryptocurrency market, you should only invest one-fifth of your money and only invest one-tenth of your cash in futures. At this time, the funds for futures only account for 2% of your total funds, and futures should only use two or three times leverage, and only trade Bitcoin. You can say that the risk is reduced to an extremely low level. If you lose 20,000 from 1,000,000, will you feel heartbroken? It’s not worth it to always use leverage. There are always people saying that rolling positions are risky, and that making money is just good luck. I do not say this to convince you; convincing others is meaningless. I only hope that people with the same trading philosophy can play together. Currently, there is no filtering mechanism; there are always harsh voices that appear, disturbing those who want to see recognition.
Fund management trading is not filled with risks; risks can be mitigated through fund management. For example, I have a futures account of 200,000, and a spot account ranging from 300,000 to 1,000,000 randomly. If there is a big opportunity, I will invest more; if there is no opportunity, I will invest less. If I am lucky, I can earn over 10 million RMB in a year, which is plenty. If I am unlucky, in the worst-case scenario, the futures account gets liquidated, it does not matter; the profits from the spot can offset the losses from the futures liquidation. After compensating, I can charge back in; can’t the spot earn a penny in a year? I have not reached that level of incompetence. It’s okay not to make money, but I cannot afford to lose money, so I haven’t been liquidated for a long time. Moreover, I often withdraw one-fourth or one-fifth of my profits separately, so even if I get liquidated, some profits will still be retained.
As an ordinary person, the recommendation from Qiu is to take one-tenth of your cash position to play contracts. For example, if you have 300,000, take 30,000 to play. If you get liquidated, put the profits from spot into it. After you have been liquidated ten times or eight times, you will surely grasp some insights. If you still haven’t grasped it, then don’t play; this industry is not suitable for you.
How to grow small funds? Many people have misconceptions about trading, such as small funds should engage in short-term trading to grow their capital; this is a complete misconception. This kind of thinking is entirely about trying to exchange time for space, hoping to get rich overnight. Small funds should more appropriately engage in medium- to long-term trading to grow. How thin is a piece of paper? A piece of paper folded 27 times is 13 kilometers thick; if folded 10 more times, it will reach 37 times. The Earth will not be as thick. If folded 105 times, the entire universe will not be able to contain it. Suppose you have a capital of 30,000; you should think about how to triple it in one wave, then triple it again in the next wave... this way, you will have four or five hundred thousand. Instead of thinking about making 10% today and 20% tomorrow... this will eventually lead to your demise. I believe many crypto friends have experienced the helplessness of being stuck after buying with all funds, where the market rises but has nothing to do with you; cutting losses but unable to do so can be avoided through position management. Without further ado, let’s get straight to the point:
Position management gives everyone the current recommendation: for example, if you take out 30,000 USDT to do contracts, my suggestion is to divide it into three parts, each part 10,000 USDT. Each time you open a position, use one part to open the position, keeping a fixed 10,000 USDT. For Bitcoin, do not exceed 10 times leverage, and for altcoins, do not exceed 5 times. If you lose money, for example, losing 1,000 USDT, you will then add 1,000 USDT from outside. If you gain 1,000 USDT, you will withdraw that 1,000 USDT. Ensure that each time you open a position recently, you can maintain a fixed position of 10,000 USDT in this manner. Until your 30,000 USDT earns 60,000 USDT, then increase each part’s position to 20,000 USDT.
The benefits are: 1. Position splitting + low leverage can avoid total loss from market spikes.
2. Avoid the problem of getting carried away. On a certain day, if you get carried away and lose everything, at most you will lose 1/3, and the remaining can give you some buffer.
3. Maintaining a fixed position allows you to stay relatively calm whether you are losing or winning, which can help stabilize your mindset.
My habit when opening positions is to fill it up at once. For example, one part is 10,000 USDT; when a market moves for a coin, I will open a full position. Filling up means using 1/3 of the funds for position splitting, with altcoins at 5 times and Bitcoin at 10 times leverage. My entry is meticulous regarding the opening price. If you are always using stop-losses and low leverage, liquidation is impossible. My logic does not look at any indicators; I only focus on position profit and loss. For example, if my total scale earns X%, I will add a position; if my total scale loses Y%, I will stop-loss or exit entirely. All operations are related only to my position profit and loss; K-line only plays a role in determining my initial entry direction. As for those indicators, their original purpose is just to reflect the profit and loss situation of the positions that invented those indicators. In fact, my operation is essentially a non-visual indicator, specifically for Li Fomoer, which I do not disclose to ordinary people.
My experience is that if you want to make money in this circle, you need to consider these points:
1. Cognitive gap: The higher your cognitive dimension, the more you can earn. For example, doing doge during lunch rounds is not because he draws lines better than the mouthpiece teacher; it’s because his cognitive dimension is higher, and his understanding of investment is several levels above most people. You can see that his predictions about doge months ago were the main driving force behind this round of doge’s rise. Or Tony the Fatty, whose understanding of trading is several levels above others, can also earn big money through trading.
2. Information gap: This primarily manifests in early high-odds plays with new narratives, such as mining, selling, or milking. If you intervene earlier than others, you can earn good returns. As for how to have an information gap, it’s quite lengthy and not elaborated here. Past Weibo has occasionally touched on this; those who are interested can find it.
3. Execution gap: Either work hard or have skills. When there is no cognitive or information gap, what separates ordinary people’s earnings is execution. You can earn by being diligent or having skills. For example, being aggressive, batch trading, or using tools, like Teacher Wang, the director, He Bi, and those playing NFT + several selling tools or using tools to earn are all typical examples.
These three are fundamental, and they can also stack together—cognitive gap combined with execution gap, information gap combined with execution gap, etc.
These days I am preparing for a layout of divine orders that are about to begin!!!
Comment 777, get on board!!!
Impermanence brings impermanence brings impermanence brings!!!
