BITCOIN HAS BROKEN THE TRADITIONAL 4-YEAR CYCLE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 14 YEARS.
For the first time in Bitcoin’s history, the post-halving year has closed in red.
In past cycles, the pattern was consistent:
- Halving year usually closes green
- The year after the halving has historically been even stronger
- Then a cycle top and a deep bear market
This time looks different.
2024 (halving year) closed strong. 2025, instead of continuing higher, closed in red.
That breaks a 14-year pattern.
But this doesn’t automatically mean Bitcoin is weak. What’s changed is what drives Bitcoin now.
Earlier cycles were dominated by:
- Halving supply shocks
- Retail speculation
Today, Bitcoin moves more with:
- Liquidity conditions
- Interest rates
- Institutional flows
- Broader business cycles
The halving still matters, but its impact is smaller. In 2012, daily supply dropped by thousands of BTC. In 2024, the reduction was only a few hundred.
So instead of a clean 4-year rhythm, Bitcoin appears to be shifting into a liquidity driven cycle.
The cycle may not be broken, It may simply be maturing.
