US macro events to watch

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Thursday
Core PCE Price Index m/m (forecast: 0.4%)
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Markets will watch closely for any sign of sticky price pressure.

Final GDP q/q (forecast: 0.7%)
A confirmation of growth momentum. Revisions can still shift expectations around economic strength.

Final GDP Price Index q/q (forecast: 3.8%)
Provides additional insight into inflation within the GDP data. Important for the broader inflation narrative.

Unemployment Claims (forecast: 210K)
A timely read on labor market conditions. Surprises here can quickly impact rate expectations.

Personal Income m/m (forecast: 0.3%)
Signals household earning power. Strong income can support consumption and inflation persistence.

Personal Spending m/m (forecast: 0.6%)
Key driver of US growth. Markets will watch for signs of resilient consumer demand.

Final Wholesale Inventories m/m (forecast: -0.1%)
Impacts GDP calculations and can hint at shifts in business demand and supply dynamics.

Natural Gas Storage (forecast: 41B)
Relevant for energy markets and inflation expectations, especially in volatile commodity environments.

30-year Bond Auction
A key test of demand for long-term US debt. Weak demand can push yields higher and tighten financial conditions.

Bottom line:
A data-heavy session with inflation and consumption in focus, alongside bond market demand shaping rate expectations.

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