trading

#Near $NEAR

1. Market Structure (SMC)
HTF (1H): Range → Distribution at premium
Price is trading inside the range, below a clear HTF supply zone.Previous price action:A bullish push toward 1.58–1.60 failed (no acceptance above supply).A bearish CHoCH followed → loss of bullish momentum confirmed.The current move up is only a pullback, not a bullish trend reversal.No clean bullish BOS has been formed yet.
→ Overall structure: Neutral to Bearish below supply.
2. Key Price Zones
Supply / Resistance (SHORT-biased zones)
1.500 – 1.531EQ / mid-range areaPrior distribution zone1.554 – 1.600HTF supplyFailed breakout / strong highIdeal area to look for shorts if price is pushed higher
Demand / Support
1.467 – 1.4781H FVGLTF demand1.444 – 1.456Weak lowBreakdown below this level opens further downside
3. Volume, Open Interest & Funding
Volume
The current pullback is not supported by strong volume.Higher volume appears mainly on down moves, showing seller control.
Open Interest (OI)
OI decreases during the pullback:Short covering, not aggressive long building.OI expanded significantly during previous drops → bearish positioning already exists.
Funding Rate
Funding is near neutral to slightly positive.The market is no longer heavily short-crowded → short squeeze risk is limited.
→ Conclusion:
This rally looks like a technical pullback, not a genuine trend reversal.
4. Trading Scenarios
🔴 Scenario A — SHORT (Primary Bias)
Strategy: Sell the rally
Conditions
Price retraces into 1.500 – 1.531Signs of rejection:LTF bearish CHoCHStrong upper wicks / rejection with volumeOI stays flat or increases slightly while price is rejected
Entry
Short around 1.500 – 1.531Optional scale-in toward 1.554 – 1.600
Stop Loss
Above 1.600
Targets
TP1: 1.481TP2: 1.451TP3 (if breakdown): 1.406
🟢 Scenario B — LONG (Pullback Trade Only)
Note: This is a counter-trend trade, not a trend reversal setup.
Conditions
Price holds 1.467 – 1.478 (1H FVG)Bullish signals:Bullish CHoCH on M15Clear Higher LowOI does NOT spike aggressively (avoid long overcrowding)
Entry
Long on pullback into 1.467 – 1.478 (1H FVG)
Stop Loss
Below 1.45
Targets
TP1: 1.524TP2: 1.554Do not expect acceptance above HTF supply
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✍️ Written by @CryptoTradeSmart Crypto Insights | Trading Perspectives
⚠️ DISCLAIMER:
NOT financial advice. Perpetuals trading is high risk - you can lose your entire capital. This is my personal setup for educational purposes only. Always DYOR, use strict risk management, and never risk more than you can afford to lose. You are solely responsible for your decisions.
Trade safe! 🎯