Hyperliquid's USDC deal could supercharge HYPE, pressure Circle, Coinbase margins, analysts say
The revenue share deal could shift an estimated $160 million in revenue from Coinbase and Circle into Hyperliquid's ecosystem, Compass Point analysts said.
Hyperliquid's new USDC arrangement with Coinbase and Circle lets the protocol capture most reserve income generated by stablecoin deposits on the platform.
Analysts say the deal could create significant long-term buying pressure for HYPE as revenue shifts from trading activity toward stablecoin balances.
Compass Point estimates the agreement could cut up to $80 million from Circle and Coinbase annual EBITDA and warns other DeFi protocols may demand similar terms.
Hyperliquid's new deal with Coinbase (COIN) and Circle (CRCL) is shifting stablecoin profits away from issuers and toward crypto trading platforms, a move analysts said could create sustained buying pressure for the HYPE token while squeezing margins at Circle.
The agreement, announced last Thursday, makes Circle's USDC stablecoin the official "Aligned Quote Asset" (AQA) on Hyperliquid, the fast-growing perpetual futures exchange. Coinbase will become the treasury deployer for most USDC on the network, while Circle handles minting, redemptions and cross-chain infrastructure.
While the exact details of the revenue share were not revealed, the AQA frame means that Hyperliquid will receive most — as much as 90% — of the reserve income generated by USDC deposits on the platform — revenue that historically flowed mainly to stablecoin Circle and Coinbase.
"The more I think about this Coinbase partnership, the more I believe it is Hyperliquid’s biggest announcement all year," Syncracy Capital co-founder Ryan Watkins wrote on X.
Watkins argued the deal fundamentally changes Hyperliquid’s business model because the protocol now captures both trading fees and stablecoin yield.
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