ratecutexpectations

$Q starts moving outside the trendline in 1hr tf. and we saw daily candle closed in doji as previous resist at 0,2 hardly taken by the bull. Is it indicating evening stars?

You decide👊
------+++------
$PIEVERSE | $LIGHT
#StrategyBTCPurchase | #BTC90kChristmas | #USJobsData | #BinanceAlphaAlert | #RateCutExpectations

🚨 2026 New Year Strike: The Fed “Dot Plot” = Life or Death for Markets 🚨
Rate cut dream shattered… or is a new surge loading? 🎯

$ETH
$ZEC

As we step into 2026, the Federal Reserve drops an Ice Bucket Challenge on global markets ❄️
Interest rates are still above 3.5% — last year’s 25bps cut now looks like charity.

📊 Reality check:

Inflation stuck at 2.4%

GDP roaring at 2.3%
Liquidity fantasy? Wake up — the data is brutal.

🏦 Wall Street Is Split — Hard

🔥 Goldman Sachs & Morgan Stanley:
👉 Betting on March + June consecutive rate cuts

😰 JPMorgan:
👉 Only ONE cut in 2026

🤯 Extreme camps emerging:

❌ Zero rate cuts in 2026

✅ Up to 150bps total cuts

⚡ The Wildcard Nobody Is Pricing Properly

👀 Powell may step down in May
If dove Kevin Hassett takes over — the entire dot plot narrative flips instantly.

📌 That makes January FOMC the life-or-death liquidity node for ALL of 2026.

🎯 How I’m Playing It (3-Step Playbook)

1️⃣ No ALL-IN before dot plot
Let the first emotional liquidation wave finish

2️⃣ Trade expectation gaps
If inflation doesn’t collapse & jobs don’t explode →
👉 “Slow rate cut” remains the main script

3️⃣ Sector Sniping Mode

MEME liquidity plays (e.g. $PUPPIES)

Public chains with ecosystem explosions

Narrative-driven track rotations

📌 My Position Script

🟡 Core ballast: $BTC $ETH
🟢 Main attack: Strong public chains on pullbacks
🔴 Speculation: 5% in fresh narratives (10x meme bets)

💡 Wealth is always hidden inside divergences.

After the dot plot drops, I’ll break down the signals immediately in the comments 👇

❓ Your Turn
Are you betting on a March rate cut or not?
What positions are you holding into FOMC?
Drop them below — let’s wait for the storm together 🌪️

#CryptoMarkets #FedWatch #LiquidityCycle #WhaleMoves #RateCutExpectations

According to Truflation data, U.S. consumer price inflation has dropped significantly below the 1.95% mark. This suggests that the Federal Reserve has been too slow to react and must implement more aggressive interest rate cuts.

#RateCutExpectations
#Inflationdata
#CPIWatch

$ASTER $ENA $LAYER

🏦 Shadow Chair Rising: Trump to Name Powell’s Successor in January
Trump plans to announce Jerome Powell’s replacement early January, four months before Powell’s term ends.
Creates a “Shadow Chair” to influence Fed policy and push for aggressive rate cuts.
Frontrunners: Kevin Hassett & Kevin Warsh; main requirement: commitment to lower rates.
Implications: Faster rate cuts → cheaper borrowing & potential crypto/market rallies, but raises Fed independence concerns.
$ZRX
$WCT
| $WOO

#FedChairUpdate #RateCutExpectations #AltSeasonComing #MacroNews

🚨 FED MINUTES: The December meeting shows a divided Fed after a 25bps cut, with several officials warning about sticky inflation while others worry about rising unemployment (4.6%). The big signal: rate cuts will be slow, with a possible extended pause and only one cut expected in 2026. Missing data from the recent shutdown and stronger GDP forecasts add to the caution. Bottom line— the pivot is alive, but moving much slower than markets hoped.

#RateCutExpectations #Fed $XRP $BNB $ETH #FOMCMinutes #BinanceSquareFamily

🚨 FED MINUTES: RATE CUTS LIKELY, BUT WITH CAUTION
​The Federal Reserve just released the minutes from its December meeting, and the message is clear: The path down for interest rates is getting a lot steeper.
​While the Fed delivered a 25-basis-point cut this month, the internal drama suggests a central bank deeply divided on what happens next. Here is what you need to know:
​🥊 A House Divided
​For the first time in years, we saw a 9-3 vote split. This wasn't a "unanimous" decision. Some officials are sounding the alarm on "sticky" inflation, while others are worried about the rising unemployment rate (now at 4.6%).
​🛑 The "Pause" is on the Table
​The phrase "some time" is the big takeaway. A significant group of officials signaled that keeping rates exactly where they are for an extended period might be necessary. They are worried that cutting too fast now could reignite inflation in 2026.
​📉 One and Done for 2026?
​The updated "dot plot" suggests the Fed is only envisioning one more cut for the entire upcoming year. The market’s hope for a rapid return to "cheap money" just took a massive reality check.
​🔍 Why the Caution?
​Data Fog: The recent government shutdown left the Fed flying blind without several key economic reports.
​Resilient Growth: GDP forecasts for 2026 were actually revised upward, giving the Fed less pressure to stimulate the economy.
​Inflation Risks: New concerns over global trade and fiscal shifts have the "Hawks" on high alert.
​THE BOTTOM LINE: The "pivot" isn't canceled, but it is definitely hitting the brakes. Expect volatility as the market digests the fact that "Higher for Longer" might be making a comeback in a new form.
#RateCutExpectations
$TRADOOR
$H
$MERL

Fed Minutes: A Split Committee, New Faces, and Renewed QE

The latest Federal Reserve minutes reveal a “tight split over the December rate cut”, underscoring the cautious stance heading into 2026. While some officials favored easing, others warned against further reductions, reflecting deep divisions within the committee.

The complexion of the FOMC is set to shift with four new regional presidents rotating into voting roles:
- Beth Hammack (Cleveland) – opposed not only to additional cuts but also previous ones.
- Anna Paulson (Philadelphia) – aligned with doves, voicing concern about inflation.
- Lorie Logan (Dallas) – raised caution over cutting rates.
- Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis) – stated he “wouldn’t have voted for the October cut.”

In a significant move, the Fed voted to resume its bond‑buying program, acquiring short‑term Treasury bills to ease funding market pressures. The program began at $40 billion per month, stabilizing reserves after a prior balance sheet reduction of $2.3 trillion, leaving holdings at $6.6 trillion.

The minutes warned that without restarting quantitative easing, reserves could face “significant declines” below the Fed’s “ample” regime for the banking system.

This cautious yet proactive stance signals that 2026 will be shaped by both internal debate and external liquidity management.

---


#FedMinutes #RateCutExpectations

FED MINUTES: RATE CUTS LIKELY, BUT WITH CAUTION
The Federal Reserve just released the minutes from its December meeting, and the message is clear: The path down for interest rates is getting a lot steeper.
While the Fed delivered a 25-basis-point cut this month, the internal drama suggests a central bank deeply divided on what happens next. Here is what you need to know:
🥊 A House Divided
For the first time in years, we saw a 9-3 vote split. This wasn't a "unanimous" decision. Some officials are sounding the alarm on "sticky" inflation, while others are worried about the rising unemployment rate (now at 4.6%).
🛑 The "Pause" is on the Table
The phrase "some time" is the big takeaway. A significant group of officials signaled that keeping rates exactly where they are for an extended period might be necessary. They are worried that cutting too fast now could reignite inflation in 2026.
📉 One and Done for 2026?
The updated "dot plot" suggests the Fed is only envisioning one more cut for the entire upcoming year. The market’s hope for a rapid return to "cheap money" just took a massive reality check.
🔍 Why the Caution?
Data Fog: The recent government shutdown left the Fed flying blind without several key economic reports.
Resilient Growth: GDP forecasts for 2026 were actually revised upward, giving the Fed less pressure to stimulate the economy.
Inflation Risks: New concerns over global trade and fiscal shifts have the "Hawks" on high alert.
THE BOTTOM LINE: The "pivot" isn't canceled, but it is definitely hitting the brakes. Expect volatility as the market digests the fact that "Higher for Longer" might be making a comeback in a new form.
#RateCutExpectations
#FOMCMinutes
#BinanceSquareFamily
$TRADOOR
$H
$MERL

FED MINUTES: RATE CUTS LIKELY, BUT WITH CAUTION
The Federal Reserve just released the minutes from its December meeting, and the message is clear: The path down for interest rates is getting a lot steeper.
While the Fed delivered a 25-basis-point cut this month, the internal drama suggests a central bank deeply divided on what happens next. Here is what you need to know:
🥊 A House Divided
For the first time in years, we saw a 9-3 vote split. This wasn't a "unanimous" decision. Some officials are sounding the alarm on "sticky" inflation, while others are worried about the rising unemployment rate (now at 4.6%).
🛑 The "Pause" is on the Table
The phrase "some time" is the big takeaway. A significant group of officials signaled that keeping rates exactly where they are for an extended period might be necessary. They are worried that cutting too fast now could reignite inflation in 2026.
📉 One and Done for 2026?
The updated "dot plot" suggests the Fed is only envisioning one more cut for the entire upcoming year. The market’s hope for a rapid return to "cheap money" just took a massive reality check.
🔍 Why the Caution?
Data Fog: The recent government shutdown left the Fed flying blind without several key economic reports.
Resilient Growth: GDP forecasts for 2026 were actually revised upward, giving the Fed less pressure to stimulate the economy.
Inflation Risks: New concerns over global trade and fiscal shifts have the "Hawks" on high alert.
THE BOTTOM LINE: The "pivot" isn't canceled, but it is definitely hitting the brakes. Expect volatility as the market digests the fact that "Higher for Longer" might be making a comeback in a new form.
#RateCutExpectations
#FOMCMinutes
#BinanceSquareFamily
$TRADOOR $H $MERL

🚨 FED MINUTES: RATE CUTS LIKELY, BUT WITH CAUTION

​The Federal Reserve just released the minutes from its December meeting, and the message is clear: The path down for interest rates is getting a lot steeper.

​While the Fed delivered a 25-basis-point cut this month, the internal drama suggests a central bank deeply divided on what happens next. Here is what you need to know:

​🥊 A House Divided

​For the first time in years, we saw a 9-3 vote split. This wasn't a "unanimous" decision. Some officials are sounding the alarm on "sticky" inflation, while others are worried about the rising unemployment rate (now at 4.6%).

​🛑 The "Pause" is on the Table

​The phrase "some time" is the big takeaway. A significant group of officials signaled that keeping rates exactly where they are for an extended period might be necessary. They are worried that cutting too fast now could reignite inflation in 2026.

​📉 One and Done for 2026?

​The updated "dot plot" suggests the Fed is only envisioning one more cut for the entire upcoming year. The market’s hope for a rapid return to "cheap money" just took a massive reality check.

​🔍 Why the Caution?

​Data Fog: The recent government shutdown left the Fed flying blind without several key economic reports.

​Resilient Growth: GDP forecasts for 2026 were actually revised upward, giving the Fed less pressure to stimulate the economy.

​Inflation Risks: New concerns over global trade and fiscal shifts have the "Hawks" on high alert.

​THE BOTTOM LINE: The "pivot" isn't canceled, but it is definitely hitting the brakes. Expect volatility as the market digests the fact that "Higher for Longer" might be making a comeback in a new form.

#RateCutExpectations
#FOMCMinutes
#BinanceSquareFamily

$TRADOOR $H $MERL

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 87% chance the Federal Reserve does not lower interest rates in January, according to Polymarket.

#bullish #btc #BTC走势分析 #RateCutExpectations #WriteToEarnUpgrade

SHADOW CHAIR RISING: Trump to Name Powell’s Successor in January

​President Donald Trump has officially accelerated the countdown for the Federal Reserve, announcing he will name Jerome Powell's replacement "sometime in January." This strategic move comes four months before Powell’s term expires in May 2026, signaling a major shift in U.S. monetary policy.

​The Strategy: A "Shadow Chair"

​By announcing a successor early, Trump effectively creates a "Shadow Chair" to influence market expectations and pressure the current Fed board to align with his low-interest-rate agenda.

​Key Highlights:

​The Lawsuit: Trump has threatened a "gross incompetence" lawsuit against Powell, specifically targeting the multi-billion dollar renovation of the Fed’s headquarters as evidence of mismanagement.

​The Frontrunners: The search has narrowed to a "shortlist of five," with Kevin Hassett (White

House Economic Adviser) and Kevin Warsh (former Fed Governor) as the primary favorites.

​The Litmus Test: Trump has made it clear that a commitment to aggressive rate cuts is the primary requirement for his nominee.

​The Complication: While Powell's term as Chair ends in May, his term as a Governor lasts until 2028. If he refuses to resign from the board entirely, it could limit Trump's ability to reshape the Fed’s voting balance.

​Why It Matters for You:

​A "Trump-loyal" Fed Chair could lead to faster rate cuts, potentially lowering mortgage and borrowing costs in 2026, but also raising concerns about central bank independence and long-term inflation.

#FedChairUpdate
#RateCutExpectations
#AltSeasonComing

$ZRX $WCT $WOO

Trump Will Announce New Fed Chair in Jan

Trump says he’ll name Jerome Powell’s replacement in January — months before Powell’s term ends in May 2026.

What it means:
This early pick acts like a “Shadow Chair,” signaling Trump’s push for faster rate cuts and more market-friendly policy.

Top names in the mix:
Kevin Hassett & Kevin Warsh are rumored favorites — both seen as pro-rate-cut.

Why it matters:
If Trump’s pick gets in, expect lower interest rates in 2026. That could boost markets (especially crypto), but may raise inflation risks too.
$ZRX $WCT $WOO

#FedChairUpdate
#RateCutExpectations
#AltSeasonComing

SHADOW CHAIR RISING: Trump to Name Powell’s Successor in January
President Donald Trump has officially accelerated the countdown for the Federal Reserve, announcing he will name Jerome Powell's replacement "sometime in January." This strategic move comes four months before Powell’s term expires in May 2026, signaling a major shift in U.S. monetary policy.
The Strategy: A "Shadow Chair"
By announcing a successor early, Trump effectively creates a "Shadow Chair" to influence market expectations and pressure the current Fed board to align with his low-interest-rate agenda.
Key Highlights:
The Lawsuit: Trump has threatened a "gross incompetence" lawsuit against Powell, specifically targeting the multi-billion dollar renovation of the Fed’s headquarters as evidence of mismanagement.
The Frontrunners: The search has narrowed to a "shortlist of five," with Kevin Hassett (White
House Economic Adviser) and Kevin Warsh (former Fed Governor) as the primary favorites.
The Litmus Test: Trump has made it clear that a commitment to aggressive rate cuts is the primary requirement for his nominee.
The Complication: While Powell's term as Chair ends in May, his term as a Governor lasts until 2028. If he refuses to resign from the board entirely, it could limit Trump's ability to reshape the Fed’s voting balance.
Why It Matters for You:
A "Trump-loyal" Fed Chair could lead to faster rate cuts, potentially lowering mortgage and borrowing costs in 2026, but also raising concerns about central bank independence and long-term inflation.
#FedChairUpdate
#RateCutExpectations
#AltSeasonComing
$ZRX $WCT $WOO

🚨 FED SHAKEUP AHEAD: Trump to Announce Powell’s Successor in January

President Trump has sped up the Federal Reserve timeline, saying he will name Jerome Powell’s replacement “sometime in January,” four months before Powell’s term ends in May 2026—signaling a potential shift in U.S. monetary policy.

The Strategy – A “Shadow Chair”:
By revealing a successor early, Trump creates a “Shadow Chair” to shape market expectations and pressure the Fed to follow his low-rate agenda.

Key Points:

The Lawsuit: Trump has threatened a “gross incompetence” lawsuit against Powell, citing the multi-billion-dollar Fed HQ renovation as mismanagement.

Top Contenders: The shortlist of five includes Kevin Hassett (White House Economic Adviser) and Kevin Warsh (former Fed Governor) as front-runners.

The Litmus Test: Commitment to aggressive rate cuts is Trump’s main requirement for the nominee.

The Hurdle: Powell’s Governor term runs until 2028. If he doesn’t fully resign, it could limit Trump’s control over Fed votes.

Why It Matters:
A Trump-aligned Fed Chair could accelerate rate cuts in 2026, lowering borrowing costs but raising questions about central bank independence and inflation risks.

#FedChairUpdate #RateCutExpectations #AltSeasonComing
$ZRX $WCT $WOO

🚨 BREAKING: Federal Reserve’s January Rate Cut Probability Edges Higher......

Market‑based data now shows that the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in January has slightly increased, as investors adjust expectations following recent economic indicators pointing to softer inflation and cooling labor dynamics. Traders are factoring in the latest inflation readings, wage trends, and slowing job growth, which collectively have nudged the odds of a rate reduction upward.

Analysts say even a modest shift in rate‑cut probability can influence Treasury yields, equity valuations, and risk asset sentiment, as markets price in a potential pivot in monetary policy. With more economic data expected ahead of the January meeting, traders will be watching closely for signals that could further tilt the Fed’s policy outlook.
#FederalReserve #RateCutExpectations #USGDPUpdate

“GREAT WEALTH” OR GREAT SPIN? Tariffs Flex as Rate-Cut Odds Crash to 14%

Trump is calling tariffs a “great wealth” engine — a punchy, patriotic victory lap that sells strength, leverage, and revival. Tariffs can produce real wins: they raise leverage in negotiations, shield select domestic industries, and create short-term tailwinds for sectors facing less import competition. If the objective is to force renegotiations and speed up reshoring, tariffs are the fastest—if bluntest—instrument.

But let’s not pretend the bill disappears just because the slogan is loud. Tariffs often land on consumers and businesses through higher prices, thinner margins, and supply-chain disruptions — especially when companies can’t quickly replace inputs. That uncertainty is its own tax: investment pauses, hiring slows, and long-term planning gets messy.

Now layer in the market’s message: Fed rate-cut odds dropping to 14% is basically a giant “not so fast” sign. If the economy was cruising into easy-money territory, those odds wouldn’t look that bleak. Markets are telling you inflation risk and policy caution are still very much alive — which makes the “no downside” tariff narrative feel like marketing, not math.

Bottom line: tariffs can be a strategy, but they’re not magic. They create winners (protected industries, bargaining power) and losers (consumers, import-reliant firms), and the “great wealth” claim only holds if you ignore who’s quietly paying for it.

#tarrifs #Fed #RateCutExpectations #WriteToEarnUpgrade #USCryptoStakingTaxReview

#PowellRemarks
US stocks tumbled as Powell spoke
WashingtonCNN — 
President Donald Trump’s significant policy changes, including on tariffs, are unlike anything seen in modern history, putting the Federal Reserve in uncharted waters, Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday.
“These are very fundamental policy changes,” Powell said at an event hosted by the Economic Club of Chicago. “There isn’t a modern experience of how to think about this.”
Powell said “the level of the tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated” and that the lingering uncertainty around tariffs could inflict lasting economic damage. With Trump’s tariffs putting the economy on a path toward weaker growth, higher unemployment and faster inflation — all at the same time — the Fed is also facing a situation it hasn’t dealt with in about half a century.
“We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension,” Powell said.
US stocks tumbled as Powell spoke: The Dow was down 700 points, or 1.7%. The broader S&P 500 fell 2.5%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slid 3.5%.
The Fed is responsible for promoting full employment and keeping inflation in check, but Trump’s tariffs threaten both of those goals. For now, however, the US economy remains in decent shape, according to the latest data.
Powell said the Fed’s best move for the moment is to stand pat until the data clearly shows how the US economy is responding to Trump’s policies.
what is your opinion about future outlook for crypto market after Powell's speech ?
#PowellRemarks
#RateCutExpectations

🔥💥Why a FED Rate Cut Can Boost Bitcoin💥🔥

When the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, it usually kicks off a wave of excitement in the crypto market — especially for Bitcoin. Here’s how:

📉 Lower Rates = Cheaper Money
Easy borrowing means more liquidity flowing into risk-on assets like crypto.

💸 Weaker USD = Stronger BTC
A soft dollar makes Bitcoin attractive as a hedge against inflation.

📊 Capital Shift to Digital Assets
Less interest in bonds and fiat pushes investors toward high-upside plays like $BTC .

⚙️ Macro Tailwind for Crypto
A dovish Fed = economic caution. That strengthens Bitcoin’s case as "digital gold."

Rate cuts don’t guarantee a pump — but they light the match.
Stay sharp. Stay ready.

#RateCutExpectations #MacroMoves #DigitalGold
#BTCBreaksATH110K #pi
$SOL
$BTC