bch

#BitcoinCash #BCH #BCHBTC

It's been an entire month since we last looked at BCHBTC and things are looking really good. The last update was 26-November and you can see the analysis here.

MA200 has been conquered as resistance and is now something of the past. If prices move down for whatever reason, this is now the main support. But, there is no going down. BCHBTC is truly bullish with a candle trading at the top of the session as the week is reaching its end. This is telling us that we are going to get strong bullish action starting next week.

This chart, on the far right side, is showing very strong bullish consolidation. Consolidation is happening as prices climb higher. This tend to lead to a very strong bullish advance. This is it. The chart looks perfect.

Everything looks good. Bullish momentum will only accumulate and grow. All the signals are bullish and we can easily expect additional growth. This chart can be bought also as a bullish bias is already confirmed. This is how conventional traders tend to enter, after confirmation. We do it as soon as the low hits. Both methods are good. We are going green.

Namaste.

✅ Trade here on $BCH

Bitcoin Cash is currently at a critical juncture, coiling within a tight consolidation pattern after a significant rejection from its recent local high. This period of balance between buyers and sellers often precedes a decisive move. With a lack of immediate fundamental catalysts, the market is relying heavily on technical cues to determine the next directional leg for BCH. Understanding the current structure is paramount for navigating the potential volatility expansion ahead.
Market Snapshot:
The BCHUSDT perpetuals chart on the 4-hour timeframe reveals a market in a state of indecision following a strong uptrend. After an impulsive leg that carried the price from the 508 level to a peak of 638, sellers stepped in, initiating a corrective phase. Price is now trading within a narrowing range, indicative of a distribution or accumulation phase where order books are being built before the next major price swing.
Chart Read:
The current price action is defined by a clear consolidation structure. Three key elements are observable on the chart. First, we witnessed a strong impulsive move upwards, which established the recent high at 638. Second, this peak was followed by a sharp rejection and a subsequent series of lower highs, suggesting waning bullish momentum. Third, the Bollinger Bands are exhibiting a volatility contraction, or a "squeeze," where the upper and lower bands are moving closer together. This technical formation often signals that a period of significant volatility is imminent.
My primary bias is neutral to slightly bearish. The failure to retest the 638 high and the subsequent formation of lower highs indicate that sellers are maintaining pressure. Furthermore, momentum indicators like the RSI are lingering below the 50 midline, and the MACD is trending below its signal line, both of which support a lack of immediate buying strength. The market structure favors sellers until buyers can prove their strength by breaking the downward-sloping trendline formed by the recent swing highs.
News Drivers:
In the current market, there is a notable absence of major project-specific news or macroeconomic catalysts directly impacting BCH. This creates a "news vacuum" where technical factors and broader market sentiment become the primary drivers of price action.
Theme: Technical Dominance Amid a News Vacuum (Neutral)
Without a strong narrative to drive demand or supply, price tends to respect technical levels more precisely. This environment can lead to prolonged range-bound activity or a slow drift in the direction of the prevailing market-wide trend. The lack of fresh bullish news makes it more difficult for the price to overcome significant resistance levels, as there is no new information to attract a fresh wave of buyers. Conversely, the absence of negative news is providing a floor of support, preventing a sharp sell-off. This equilibrium is what keeps the price locked in its current consolidation.
Scenario A:
The primary scenario is a bearish continuation following the resolution of the current consolidation. In this case, we would expect to see the price break down below the lower Bollinger Band and the immediate support zone established by the recent swing lows. A confirmed break, accompanied by an expansion in sell-side volume, would signal that the distribution phase has concluded. This would open the door for a potential mean reversion move, targeting liquidity pockets at lower levels, possibly towards the origin of the last significant rally.
Scenario B:
The alternative scenario involves an invalidation of the bearish pressure, resulting in a bullish breakout. This would require buyers to step in with conviction and push the price above the series of recent lower highs and through the upper Bollinger Band. A sustained move above this immediate resistance, confirmed by increasing buy-side volume and momentum indicators turning upwards, would invalidate the current bearish structure. This would shift the market bias back to bullish, suggesting the consolidation was a period of re-accumulation before an attempt to retest the 638 peak.
What to Watch Next:
1. Bollinger Band Break: The direction of the price break from the current squeeze is the most critical near-term signal. A decisive close outside the bands will likely dictate the next short-term trend.
2. Volume Confirmation: Any breakout or breakdown must be supported by a significant increase in trading volume. A low-volume move is more susceptible to being a liquidity grab or fakeout before reversing.
3. Reaction at Range Boundaries: Pay close attention to price action at the upper and lower edges of the current consolidation. Aggressive buying at the lows or strong selling at the highs will provide clues about the underlying strength of market participants.
Risk Note:
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and all participants should conduct their own research and be aware of the inherent risks.
The market awaits a clear signal as volatility contracts.
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