#new Earthquake in the US: Supreme Court may force Trump to return more than $133 billion in tariffs
A legal case that until recently moved away from the spotlight threatens to develop into one of the largest fiscal upheavals in the history of the United States.
The Supreme Court is examining whether the tariffs imposed by Donald Trump were illegal. And if the decision moves in that direction, then the American state could find itself faced with refunds exceeding $133 billion.
The number is shocking.
The implications are frightening.
And the timing could not be worse.
These tariffs were imposed during the Trump presidency by invoking emergency national security powers. The administration then argued that it had the right to act quickly and unilaterally, citing threats related to trade, China, and drug trafficking.
The tool used was the IEEPA. A law that gives the president broad powers in times of crisis, but according to two lower federal courts, it does not allow him to impose tariffs of this type.
It is this detail that now changes everything.
The Supreme Court is not simply examining a technical legal dispute. It is examining whether tens of billions of dollars were collected without a legal basis. If it answers in the affirmative, then it opens up the most dangerous question: what happens to the money that has already been paid?
According to estimates from legal and economic circles, the revenue from the disputed tariffs is around $129 to $133 billion, while some analyses raise the potential cost even higher if all the related charges are calculated.
We are not talking about theoretical amounts. These are real money that companies paid to customs to bring products into the US.
The most worrying thing for Washington is that the Supreme Court has not yet clarified what form the remedy will take. That is, if the tariffs are canceled, whether this will only apply from now on or whether the way will be opened for retroactive refunds.
In the event of a complete cancellation, importers could claim back huge amounts. And large companies are already taking legal action to ensure that they do not lose this right if the decision comes.
This is why the issue is starting to appear on the desks of major media and markets.
If the US government is ultimately forced to return even part of this money, the consequences will be immediate. Fiscal pressure, political noise, uncertainty about how a President can use emergency powers in the future.
And as always happens in such cases, the markets are not waiting for the final decision to react.
Institutional risk. Legal uncertainty. Billions in the air.
The most ironic element of the case is that the decision does not directly concern Trump as a person, but the American state. However, politically, the burden falls on him. And in a period when every economic issue is turned into a political weapon, this case takes on dimensions much larger than a simple legal dispute.
The Supreme Court verdict has not been announced.
No refund has been made yet.
But the possibility of a forced refund of more than $100 billion is enough to cause turmoil.
Because if the court opens that door, we are not just talking about tariffs.
We are talking about a precedent that could change the way the US exercises economic power.
And the markets always read that first.