Bitcoin closed Q4, 2025, down by nearly 28%, but more importantly, there’s more to this price move than meets the eye. For the first time since its inception, Bitcoin has broken away from its four-year market cycle.
Historically speaking, the Bitcoin halving periods were very predictable and cycled through the following phases: the halving year ended up in the positive, the next year was much better, and then there was a significant peak accompanied by a strong correction. All of this was seen in the 2013, 2017, and 2021 halving periods. Such was not the case this time around, though, since although the halving year of 2024 ended well, the year 2025 ended up with a red candle, the first since the halving years.
This, instead, was a break in pattern that argues for Bitcoin's maturity. Now, institutional participation, spot ETFs, and deeper liquidity have taken the driver's seat, not the speculation from a halving. This means the market will increasingly be influenced by wider macro conditions.
On-chain data entering 2026 points to one quiet but notable shift: large holders- whales, if you will-have started accumulating again. Wallets holding more than 1,000 BTC are increasing their balances, while Bitcoin reserves on exchanges remain at a low level. In the past, this combination has mostly appeared during accumulation phases rather than in distribution.
On the other hand, price action is yet quite tightly bounded. Bitcoin has been consolidating within strong resistances near $100,000 and solid supports near $84,000 for quite numerous weeks now. The zone around $100,000 holds immense significance as a psychological as well as technical level, failing which a significant pull-back may be experienced in 2026.
Currently priced around 88,000 with a market capitalization of around 1.75 trillion, it seems that Bitcoin is currently consolidating. Whether this market cycle shift results in Bitcoin adopting a new formation or is just delayed will only be determined over time as various market conditions unfold.
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