Messi jagt Mbappe im 50-Millionen-Dollar-Polymarket-Duell um den Golden Boot

Yellow Media French · 2026-07-15T08:08:13.000Z

Polymarket-Teilnehmer haben mehr als 50 Millionen US-Dollar in den FIFA-World-Cup-Golden-Boot-Wettbewerb gesteckt, in dem Kylian Mbappes Vorsprung von 56 % gegenüber Lionel Messi nun durch ein Spiel um den dritten Platz entschieden wird. Wichtige Punkte: Mbappe führte den Golden-Boot-Markt von Polymarket mit 56 % an, vor Messis 34 %, bevor Frankreich im Halbfinale mit 0:2 gegen Spanien verlor. Beide Stürmer haben jeweils acht Tore; Mbappe hält den Assists-Tie-Breaker mit drei zu zwei. Der Markt löst am 20. Juli auf, und Wettbüros bevorzugen bereits Messi. Polymarket-Golden-Boot-Markt Der Golden-Boot-Kontrakt, der am 24. April gestartet ist, umfasst mehr als 40 Stürmer und hat sich zum am stärksten gehandelten Spieler-Markt des Turniers entwickelt. Der eigene Sport-Account von Polymarket zeigte Mbappe mit 56 % kurz vor den Halbfinals, vor Messi mit 34 %, Harry Kane mit 5 % und Jude Bellingham mit 3 %.

Polymarket traders have poured more than $50 million into the FIFA World Cup Golden Boot race, where Kylian Mbappe's 56% lead over Lionel Messi now rests on a third-place game.
Key Points:
Mbappe led Polymarket's Golden Boot market at 56% against Messi's 34% before France's 2-0 semifinal loss to Spain.
Both forwards have eight goals each, with Mbappe holding the assist tiebreaker three to two.
The market resolves Jul. 20, and sportsbooks already favor Messi.
Polymarket Golden Boot Market
The Golden Boot contract, which opened on Apr. 24, covers more than 40 forwards and has grown into the most heavily traded player market of the tournament. Polymarket's own sports account showed Mbappe at 56% heading into the semifinals, ahead of Messi at 34%, Harry Kane at 5% and Jude Bellingham at 3%.
The volume runs deeper than a single contract. It includes a stack of goal markets built around Messi alone, with thresholds running from nine goals up to 13, the largest prop suite the platform has ever attached to one player.
Trades settle in USD Coin (USDC), and the market resolves on Jul. 20 under FIFA's official tiebreaker rules.
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Mbappe And Messi Tiebreaker
Mbappe and Messi sit level on eight goals apiece, and the Frenchman became the first player ever to reach that number at two separate World Cups. France's 2-0 loss to Spain on Tuesday ended its run at the title, yet Mbappe keeps one last chance to score in Saturday's third-place match.
Sportsbooks moved within hours. FanDuel repriced Messi as the favorite at -160 after the final whistle, pushing Mbappe out to +190.
The tiebreaker math still leans French.
Mbappe holds three assists to Messi's two, so the Argentine likely needs to finish ahead on goals outright rather than settle for a tie.
The chasing pack has thinned. Erling Haaland exited at seven goals when Norway went out, while Kane and Bellingham carry six each into England's semifinal against Argentina on Wednesday, and Spain's Mikel Oyarzabal sits on five.
Golden Boot Odds Retrospective
The market has swung all tournament, and its history explains why traders refuse to call it. During the group stage Mbappe traded at just 25.5%, with Messi at 21.1% and Kane close behind at 19.5%, a spread so tight that every match day redrew the board.
Messi then surged 29 points during Argentina's knockout run in early July, the single largest contract move of the tournament.
One statistical model already puts his chances near 47.5%, arguing France's harder path left Mbappe overpriced, and Tuesday's semifinal result may prove that call right.
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