Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is approaching a pivotal yearly and monthly close. If BTC closes December below approximately $90,300, it will mark the third consecutive monthly (1M) red candle—a rare and significant technical event that could signal a fundamental shift in market structure.
The Significance of the Three-Month Streak
A Break in Trend: Throughout the entire 2023–2025 bull cycle, Bitcoin has never printed three straight bearish monthly candles. Closing in the red tomorrow would be a definitive departure from the prevailing upward momentum and a strong signal that a new Bear Cycle is underway.
Historical Parallels: This pattern mirrors the onset of the 2021 bear market. Between November 2021 and January 2022, BTC saw three consecutive red months. While the market found a temporary "lifeline" and rebounded off the 1W MA100 (100-week moving average) shortly after, those gains were eventually erased by more aggressive drops in the later stages of the cycle.
A Bear Market Signature: Historically, three consecutive red months are a hallmark of bear market activity. Outside of confirmed bear cycles, Bitcoin has only displayed this specific pattern twice: during the mid-cycle correction of April–June 2021 and the late-year slump of July–September 2019.
Looking Ahead
The close of the December candle is more than just a monthly milestone; it is the final stamp on the 2025 yearly chart. Traders should watch the $90,300 level closely. A failure to reclaim this price point suggests that the support offered by the 1W MA100 will be the last line of defense against a deeper correction heading into 2026
