Talked to a former State Dept Iran guy who worked the nuclear file. His read on Mojtaba Khamenei? Not even top 15 in real power.
Calls him a "supreme leader seedling." His dad spent decades building networks before he could actually move anything. Mojtaba got months and then vanished. No photo, no video, nothing. Guy thinks it's facial injuries, not OpSec.
The internal drama everyone's pointing to — president threatening to quit, central bank saying the economy's cooked — he compared it to Republicans and Democrats yelling at each other. Every government has politics. Doesn't mean it's collapsing.
His sharper take: the U.S. basically did regime change by killing Khamenei. And whoever ends up running things is going to be more anti-American, more military-first, less cautious than the old guard.
Previous supreme leader didn't want nukes. No one's betting the new crew feels the same way.
His call: Israel hits Iran again within a year, over 50% chance, with or without the U.S. backing them. U.S. direct involvement? Near zero.
Iran's counter move isn't missiles. It's Hormuz. They'll squeeze it when they want to send a message without starting a full war. Maybe they start charging different rates depending on who pays up — full price for some, discounts for China if they play ball.
Real question: does Mojtaba actually build power over the next year, or does the IRGC just keep him as a figurehead with no real network behind him?
Calls him a "supreme leader seedling." His dad spent decades building networks before he could actually move anything. Mojtaba got months and then vanished. No photo, no video, nothing. Guy thinks it's facial injuries, not OpSec.
The internal drama everyone's pointing to — president threatening to quit, central bank saying the economy's cooked — he compared it to Republicans and Democrats yelling at each other. Every government has politics. Doesn't mean it's collapsing.
His sharper take: the U.S. basically did regime change by killing Khamenei. And whoever ends up running things is going to be more anti-American, more military-first, less cautious than the old guard.
Previous supreme leader didn't want nukes. No one's betting the new crew feels the same way.
His call: Israel hits Iran again within a year, over 50% chance, with or without the U.S. backing them. U.S. direct involvement? Near zero.
Iran's counter move isn't missiles. It's Hormuz. They'll squeeze it when they want to send a message without starting a full war. Maybe they start charging different rates depending on who pays up — full price for some, discounts for China if they play ball.
Real question: does Mojtaba actually build power over the next year, or does the IRGC just keep him as a figurehead with no real network behind him?