BTC's 5-Day Streak Hides a Dangerous Truth $81K Is NOT the Bottom 🚨
This is a Macro Analysis Scenario (B) focusing on market structure, dominance, and on-chain data suggesting a relief rally, not a new cycle start. The tone must be profound and analytical.
BTC just printed 5 straight green days adding $100B but don't get euphoric yet 🧐. The data screams relief rally, not cycle initiation. Why? Altcoins are currently outperforming
$BTC , causing BTC dominance to drop—a classic sign of a weak rally structure.
Whale behavior confirms the skepticism. Wallets holding 100 to 1,000
$BTC , the same cohort that bought the Q3 2024 and Q1 2025 bottoms, are actively net selling right now. Furthermore, Bitcoin apparent demand is still trending down, mirroring post-cycle top behavior.
Technically, we've seen this movie before. After the 2021 peak,
$BTC reclaimed the 50-Week EMA only to immediately crash back below it. Upside remains, potentially hitting $102K-$104K near the 200D SMA, but that looks like a final blow-off top before the real downtrend resumes.
The macro kicker: ISM is at a 14-month low and falling. Major rallies historically require ISM above 50, a condition that might not return until 2026. Expect the true cycle bottom to align with ISM expansion and a new Fed chair in H2 2026. Stay skeptical.
#CryptoAnalysis #MacroView #BTC #MarketStructure 🧐