$BTC 🟠 Bitcoin Bottom Talk Again: Could $40K Happen?
How I’m thinking about the $40K area as a possible bottom.
This is not a strong prediction and not a call to buy or sell. It’s just one possible scenario based on on-chain data.
📊 The key metric I watch: Realized Price
Realized Price is the average price at which all Bitcoin was bought.
In every bear market so far, Bitcoin has done the same thing: 👉 Price falls below Realized Price before the real bottom forms
Here’s what history shows:
2011: ~66% below
2015: ~48% below
2018: ~35% below
2022: ~33% below
Important point:
🔻 Each cycle, the drop below Realized Price gets smaller
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❓ What about this cycle?
Right now, Realized Price is around $56K.
In bear markets, this number usually slowly moves down, not sideways.
If Bitcoin repeats 2022 behavior (about 33% below):
Bottom would be around $37K–$38K
If Realized Price drops to $53K–$54K:
Bottom could stretch to $35K
But here’s the twist 👇
Bitcoin volatility keeps shrinking every cycle.
Price swings are less extreme than before.
So instead of a deep drop, a smaller dip makes more sense:
Around 24%–31% below Realized Price
That puts price near $40K–$43K
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🎯 How I’m playing it
I’m not trying to catch the exact bottom.
I’m watching a reaction zone, not a magic number: 👉 $35K–$45K
If price enters that area, I’ll focus on:
Market behavior
Volume
Sentiment
Not guesses.
Not emotions.
🧠 Final thought
No certainty.
No bold calls.
Just probabilities and patience.
That’s how bottoms are survived — and caught. 🚀
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