bitcoin

Dữ liệu từ chỉ số Coinbase Premium cho thấy giá $BTC trên Coinbase liên tục thấp hơn các sàn quốc tế, với mức chênh lệch âm từ -0,02% đến -0,08%. Điều này phản ánh lực bán chênh lệch giá gia tăng, dòng tiền ETF thiếu ổn định và nhà đầu tư Mỹ ưu tiên phái sinh hơn giao dịch giao ngay.
Ngay cả trong nhịp tăng mạnh từ 100.000 lên 120.000 USD, phí bảo hiểm vẫn không duy trì dương, cho thấy lực mua đến muộn và rút lui nhanh khi thanh khoản suy yếu. Khi giá lùi về 68.900 USD, premium âm sâu hơn xác nhận tâm lý phòng thủ, thị trường Mỹ phản ứng theo biến động thay vì dẫn dắt xu hướng.
Để hình thành một đợt tăng giá thực sự, Bitcoin cần premium duy trì dương ổn định cùng dòng vốn ETF đều đặn. Trước khi những tín hiệu này xuất hiện, đà phục hồi hiện tại vẫn mong manh và dễ đảo chiều.
Trong chu kỳ hiện tại, Bitcoin không còn được dẫn dắt bởi tâm lý FOMO của nhà đầu tư nhỏ lẻ, mà phụ thuộc lớn vào dòng vốn tổ chức thông qua các ETF giao ngay. Tuy nhiên, thay vì trở thành bệ đỡ ổn định, nhóm quỹ này lại thể hiện sự do dự rõ rệt.

Dù bối cảnh vĩ mô tích cực hơn khi lạm phát hạ nhiệt, dòng tiền ETF vẫn thiếu nhất quán. Chỉ trong vài ngày giữa tháng 2, thị trường ghi nhận hàng trăm triệu USD bị rút ròng, cho thấy tổ chức đang thu hẹp vị thế thay vì tích lũy. Các nhịp tăng giá vì thế bị tận dụng để tái cân bằng rủi ro, không phải để mua đuổi.

Dữ liệu on-chain cũng củng cố áp lực cung: lượng BTC nạp lên sàn tăng đột biến nhiều lần, có giai đoạn vượt 100.000–190.000 BTC, phản ánh hoạt động phân phối quy mô lớn. Trong khi đó, dòng tiền stablecoin suy yếu làm sức mua mới ngày càng mỏng.
Kết quả, thị trường hiện giống một pha “hồi phục kỹ thuật” hơn là khởi đầu xu hướng tăng. Nếu không có dòng vốn ETF ổn định và nhu cầu giao ngay mạnh mẽ trở lại, đà tăng của Bitcoin vẫn mong manh và dễ đảo chiều.
Áp lực bán vẫn đang là lực chi phối chính của Bitcoin
Trong bối cảnh nhu cầu giao ngay suy yếu và chênh lệch giá trên Coinbase duy trì tiêu cực. Khối lượng mua ròng thường xuyên âm hàng trăm triệu USD, có lúc chạm ngưỡng cực đoan gần -450 triệu, cho thấy phe bán liên tục áp đảo.
Phần lớn các nhịp tăng được thúc đẩy bởi “cá voi”, quỹ đầu tư và vị thế đòn bẩy trong điều kiện thanh khoản mỏng. Khi giá nhích lên, hoạt động chốt lời và phòng hộ lập tức xuất hiện, biến mỗi đợt hồi phục thành cơ hội phân phối thay vì tích lũy. Vì thế, đà tăng thiếu nền tảng bền vững từ dòng tiền giao ngay.

Dù đôi lúc xuất hiện lực mua ngắn hạn do “short squeeze”, dòng tiền này chỉ mang tính phản ứng và nhanh chóng suy yếu. Kết quả, cấu trúc thị trường vẫn ở trạng thái cân bằng mong manh: giảm sâu được hạn chế, nhưng động lực bứt phá cũng chưa đủ mạnh để xác nhận một xu hướng tăng rõ ràng
#bitcoin #MarketRebound
$BTC $ETH

Recently, Bitcoin reached the $70,000 region and tapped a key supply zone on the 1-hour timeframe. This area previously acted as resistance, meaning sellers were likely waiting there to take profits or open short positions.
As expected in technical analysis, when price enters a strong supply zone, selling pressure increases — and that’s exactly what happened.
🔎 What Caused the Drop?
Here’s a simple breakdown for beginners:
1️⃣ Supply Zone Reaction
The $70K level aligned with a 1H supply area. Supply zones are regions where large sellers previously stepped in. When price revisits these zones, it often faces rejection.
2️⃣ Profit Taking Near Psychological Level
$70,000 is a major psychological level. Round numbers often attract heavy profit-taking, especially after strong upward momentum.
3️⃣ Short-Term Target Achieved
After rejection from supply, Target 1 was achieved as expected, confirming the short-term downside reaction.
🎯 What’s Next?
The next downside level to watch is $66,000.
If bearish momentum continues and lower timeframes maintain a bearish structure, price may move toward that level. However:
If buyers step in strongly before $66KOr if market structure shifts bullish again
Then the pullback could be temporary.
🧠 What Beginners Should Learn From This
Price reacts strongly at supply and demand zones.Psychological levels (like $70K) increase volatility.Always wait for confirmation instead of predicting blindly.Targets should be planned before entering trades.
Markets move in cycles: impulse → correction → continuation or reversal.
Right now, this looks like a technical correction from a supply zone — not necessarily a full trend reversal.
$BTC

Sitting here on this lazy Sunday, coffee in hand, charts open, and man… $BTC Bitcoin did snap back toward $70K after kissing the low-$60Ks, which has me thinking “Is that the bottom… or just another dead cat bounce?
Right now, the honest answer is: the data is mixed. There are serious signs of a proper flush-out, but also real risks that price revisits the $50K–$60K zone before this correction is truly done.
This whole rebound screams “weekend pump” to me, the kind we’ve all gotten burned by before.
Before we go deep, here’s what happened:
A fast drop: Bitcoin was chilling around $95K–$100K, then BAM, early February hits, and we’re staring at $60K. A straight 50%+ haircut from the October 2025 ATH of $126K, this triggered heavy forced selling/liquidations. $8.7 billion in liquidations get wiped out. Oof.A rebound back: Then this weekend? Boom. Up 15–17% in a flash, back over $70K. Helped by broader risk assets stabilizing (tech bounce was part of that mood shift). The whole market followed: $ETH jumping, SOL breathing again, total cap back near $2.4T.Now the market is hovering around that $68K–$70K zone, a battlefield area, not a victory lap.
But here’s the thing that’s nagging at me (and probably you too): this feels exactly like those classic weekend pumps we’ve learned not to trust.
You know the drill: thin liquidity, retail traders bored on Sunday scrolling X, a couple of big whales or ETF flows creating a fake squeeze, then Monday comes and reality slaps everyone. I’ve been wrecked by these before. They look juicy on the 4H chart… until they don’t.

Okay, But What Actually Sparked This Rebound?
I’m not saying there’s zero reason for the bounce. A few things lined up perfectly:
Cooler CPI data – January print came in at 2.4% YoY (lower than expected). When inflation data comes in cooler than feared, markets start whispering about “less aggressive rates” or “earlier cuts.” That tends to lift risk assets, stocks, high beta trades, and yes, Bitcoin.
Whether that optimism lasts is a different matter, but it’s a real short-term trigger.
ETF inflows finally flipping – After a brutal month of outflows (over $1.7B at one point), we got back-to-back positive days: $471M on Friday, another $145M on Monday. BlackRock and Fidelity leading the charge. When flows flip positive after a stretch of outflows, it can feel like institutions are “buying the dip,” and that narrative alone can ignite a rally.
But here’s the key: one or two strong inflow days doesn’t automatically equal a trend. It needs follow-through.
The great liquidation cleanse: This bounce didn’t come from nowhere. It came after serious damage in the derivatives market. $8.7B gone. Leverage got absolutely nuked. Funding rates crashed, open interest dropped hard. Some analysts are calling it “healthy deleveraging.” I get it, weak hands out, stronger foundation?
On paper, it looks bullish. I even caught myself smiling at the chart for a second. But then I dug deeper…
My On-Chain Check
Insane Realized Losses: We just saw $3.2 billion in entity-adjusted losses. That’s bigger than the Terra collapse. That’s capitulation-like behavior, yes but deep realized losses can sometimes happen before the ultimate low.Short-Term Holders (STH) are Rekt: The STH MVRV is sitting at 0.72. People are underwater and looking for any exit. We haven’t seen the full “everyone who was gonna sell has sold” moment. Recent buyers tend to be the ones who panic first. If they’re still dumping aggressively, the market can still have another leg down.Long-Term Holders (LTH) are Distributing: Data shows the OGs are selling into this $70K strength. That is not bottom behavior.Standard Chartered’s Warning: They just slashed their target to $100K and warned we could test $50,000 first. When the big bulls start sweating, I listen.
Bottom line: this bounce is not automatically “fake”… but it also doesn’t yet scream “the bottom is confirmed.”
Why I’m Calling This a Dead Cat Bounce + Classic Weekend Pump
Alright, here’s my honest take: 6 reasons I’m not trusting this move:
Weekend pumps are traps 80% of the time
Low volume, no institutional firepower on Saturdays/Sundays. Retail piles in, then on Monday, the big boys take profits. I’ve seen it too many times. This one has that exact smell.$70K–$72K is a heavy, psychologically resistant zone
Markets love to retest broken levels. And this range has acted like a magnet and a ceiling lately. We’ve rejected here multiple times in the last two weeks. Volume on the way up was way weaker than the sell-off. If the price keeps rejecting there, it can turn into a launchpad for another drop. Weak conviction.Standard Chartered warns about lower levels:
They slashed their 2026 target from $150K to $100K and straight-up said we could see $50K first. These guys are usually pretty bullish. When even they’re warning of more pain… I listen. Some institutions have openly discussed $50K downside risk before a later recovery. Whether you agree or not, that kind of call matters because it shapes market psychology.History doesn’t lie: Every bull cycle has these fakeout rallies mid-correction. 2017, 2021, same script. Post-halving corrections take time. We’re only 4 months from the top. The real bottom usually comes after the “this is it!” moment fools everyone.Macro isn’t fully clear
Cooler CPI is nice, but tariffs, sticky shelter costs, and “higher for longer” talk aren’t dead. Plus, money’s rotating into international stocks right now. Crypto isn’t the only game in town.Sentiment is still too hopeful
Everyone’s already calling bottom. That’s usually when we get the real flush.
I’m not saying we’re going to zero. But this rebound? Feels like the market giving us one last chance to load up cheaper.
My Personal Prediction (And What I’m Actually Doing)

Base case: One more leg down to $50K–$55K in the next 4–8 weeks (probably March–April). That’s where the real capitulation happens, on-chain metrics bottom, and the big money starts slurping for real.
Why that zone?
Lines up with StanChart’s warningNear the 200-week MA and realized priceGives the market time to digest macro stuff (March Fed meeting, etc.)Matches the 50–60% drawdowns we usually see in bull markets (we’re at 52% now)
What am I doing in my own portfolio right now?

Holding my core BTC stack (never selling the king)Not buying this rebound — sitting on cash I raised during the $60K dipDCAing small amounts below $62K if we retestAdding to quality alts (SOL, some RWA plays) on weakness because those narratives are still strong long-termTight stops — if we somehow break $75K clean with volume, I’ll admit I’m wrong and rotate back in fast
I’m not trying to catch the exact bottom. I’m trying to buy when fear is actually maximum.

Long-Term? Still Stupid Bullish (Don’t Get It Twisted)
Look, I’m not some doomer. After this final shakeout, 2026 is still going to be wild.
ETF inflows are going to explode once the fear fadesTrump-era regulation looks pro-cryptoRWA tokenization, AI agents, all that stuff is just getting startedHalving supply shock is still working in the background
My crazy target? $120K–$150K by year-end if we get the real bottom soon. But only after the pain.

Bottom line from one regular dude to another:
This $70K weekend pump? Dead cat bounce. Don’t trust it. One more dip is coming, and that’s when the real accumulation phase starts. That’s when I’ll be going hard.
What about you? Are you buying this bounce or waiting for cheaper sats?
What Option Are You Going With Below
Buying the dip right nowWaiting for $60K or lowerAlready all-in and chillingSelling everything (lol)

Drop your thoughts, your charts, your bags, let’s talk. I read every comment.

If you’re new here, hit follow for more no-BS takes like this. Trade safe, stack responsibly, and remember: the market’s always trying to make the majority wrong.
Not financial advice. Just my thoughts after way too much screen time this weekend. DYOR always.
#bitcoin n #btc70k C #Crypto #DeadCatBounce #WeekendPump ump