ethereum

1️⃣ Режим рынка:
• базовый сценарий: баланс / range
• импульсы возможны, только после подтверждения закреплением
• приоритет: работа от зон ликвидности
➡️ план адаптируется при смене режима
2️⃣ Ключевые зоны:
BTC
🔺 Верхняя зона: 89 200 – 90 200
⚖️ Баланс: 87 200 – 88 000
🔻 Нижняя зона: 85 500 – 86 200
📉 Глубокая поддержка: 83 800 – 84 200
ETH
🔺 Верхняя зона: 3 000 – 3 050
⚖️ Баланс: 2 880 – 2 940
🔻 Нижняя зона: 2 820 – 2 860
📉 Глубокая поддержка: 2 720 – 2 750
3️⃣ Сценарии:
A — диапазон
• шорты от верхних зон после реакции
• лонги от нижних зон после защиты
• вход частями, цель — середина диапазона
B — пробой вверх
• подтверждение: закреп выше верхней зоны + рост объёма без резкого увеличения OI
• действия: не шортить, ждать ретеста, работать только лонг
C — пробой вниз
• подтверждение: потеря нижней зоны + рост OI
• действия: не ловить нож, ждать реакции на глубокой поддержке, сокращать размер позиции
4️⃣ Управление риском:
• риск на сценарий: 0.5–1%
• не более 2 стопов подряд
• после 2 стопов — пауза
• без торговли в середине диапазона
5️⃣ Тайминг недели:
• пн–вт: формирование диапазона, фейковые движения
• ср–чт: основной объём, снятие ликвидности
• пт: фиксации, ложные пробои
• выходные: низкая ликвидность, ограниченные позиции
6️⃣ Мониторинг:
• open interest
• funding
• реакция цены на ключевые зоны
• дневное закрытие
💡 Принцип: адаптация важнее прогноза. Если рынок не даёт условий — институционал ждёт.

Could Ethereum (ETH) be preparing for another explosive rally toward the $5,000 mark? Recent on-chain and technical signals are drawing strong parallels to previous periods that preceded major ETH price surges of up to 120%.
One of the most notable developments is happening quietly beneath the surface: the Ethereum staking inflow queue has once again surpassed the unstaking (withdrawal) queue—a phenomenon that historically occurred just before strong bullish moves.
Ethereum Validator Entry Queue Surpasses Exit Queue
According to the latest data, Ethereum’s staking queue has grown to 745,619 ETH, worth approximately $2.2 billion, with an estimated waiting period of 13 days. This marks the first time since June that the amount of ETH waiting to be staked has exceeded the amount waiting to be withdrawn.
By comparison, the exit (unstaking) queue currently stands at 360,528 ETH, equivalent to roughly $1.06 billion. This shift signals a renewed preference among validators to lock ETH for the long term, reducing liquid supply and potential sell pressure in the market.
Notably, this is also the highest level of validator staking registrations since November 30. Data from ValidatorQueue shows that the number of active Ethereum validators has exceeded 983,371, with approximately 29.3% of the total ETH supply now staked, or around 35.5 million ETH.
Why This Matters: Improved Staking Dynamics After Pectra Upgrade
On-chain analyst DeFiIgnas commented on X that the validator entry queue has officially overtaken the exit queue, explaining that the Pectra upgrade significantly improved the staking experience.
Key improvements include:
Increased maximum validator limits
Easier restaking for large ETH holders
Improved operational efficiency for institutional validators
These changes make Ethereum staking more attractive for long-term capital, particularly from large players, reinforcing the idea that ETH is being accumulated rather than distributed.
Echoing this view, Abdul, Head of DeFi at Monad Foundation, noted that this is the first time in six months that the entry queue has exceeded the exit queue. He added that the last occurrence in June was followed by a near 100% rally in ETH price shortly afterward.
Historical Precedent: Staking Imbalance Before Major Rallies
TradingView data highlights that the two most recent instances where ETH staking inflows exceeded outflows—March and June—both occurred just before major price increases of approximately 90% and 126%, respectively.
This historical correlation does not guarantee future performance, but it does strengthen the case that rising staking participation often coincides with bullish market phases, especially when combined with favorable network conditions such as:
Increased on-chain activity
Reduced effective supply
Lower transaction fees
Strong validator confidence
If similar dynamics persist, a move toward $5,000 ETH in 2026 becomes a plausible scenario rather than a speculative fantasy.
$5,000 ETH Target Based on a 2024 Fractal Setup
From a technical perspective, Ethereum’s current price structure closely resembles the setup that triggered a powerful rally in Q4 2024.
At that time, ETH consolidated between $2,260 and $2,750 from July to October before breaking out and surging 74.5% to $4,100 by December 2024.
Today, ETH is displaying a similar sideways structure within the $2,750–$3,200 range. If price continues to hold above the critical $2,750 support, a comparable upside expansion of approximately 75% could project ETH toward the $5,100–$5,200 zone, mirroring the previous fractal.
Key Technical Level to Watch
Well-known analyst Titan of Crypto notes that ETH has now retraced approximately 61.8% from its most recent impulse move, a Fibonacci level historically associated with strong reactions.
He emphasizes that $2,750 is the key level to monitor in the coming weeks, as it represents the structural foundation for any sustained bullish continuation—similar to what was observed in mid-2024.
Caution Still Required: Bull Trap Risks Remain
Despite the growing number of bullish signals, some industry analysts remain cautious. As previously reported by Coinphoton, there are concerns that Ethereum could still form a bull trap if macro conditions deteriorate or if risk appetite weakens across broader markets.
As always, on-chain strength and technical confluence increase probability—not certainty.
Final Thoughts
The convergence of:
Rising staking inflows
Reduced unstaking pressure
Improved validator economics
A historically proven technical fractal
creates a compelling bullish narrative for Ethereum over the medium to long term. If history rhymes, ETH reaching $5,000 by 2026 is well within the realm of possibility—but confirmation will depend on key levels holding and broader market conditions aligning.
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