Digital Assets Show Complex Signals as 2026 Begins — Short Version
VanEck’s Matthew Sigel says Bitcoin’s volatility has nearly halved compared to past cycles. After absorbing roughly a 35% drawdown, the current correction may be limited to around 40%.
The historical four-year #Bitcoin cycle still appears intact, with the last peak in October 2025, suggesting 2026 will likely be a year of consolidation rather than extreme moves.
Global liquidity offers mixed signals: expected rate cuts are supportive, but U.S. liquidity is tightening due to AI-driven capex and fragile credit markets. Crypto leverage has largely reset, and while on-chain activity is still weak, early improvement signs are emerging.
Sigel recommends a disciplined 1–3% Bitcoin allocation via dollar-cost averaging—adding during leverage liquidations and trimming when speculation overheats.