#JuneJobsDataCoolsFedHikeBets
June jobs report missed badly — just 𝟱𝟳,𝟬𝟬𝟬 𝗷𝗼𝗯𝘀 added vs ~110K expected, and May was revised down by 𝟰𝟯,𝟬𝟬𝟬. The unemployment rate ticked to 4.2%, but the headline miss immediately hit rate expectations: probability of a Fed rate hike by September dropped from 𝟲𝟱% 𝘁𝗼 𝟱𝟬%.
𝗛𝘂𝗽𝘇𝘆 𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲: This is a significant macro miss that shifts the rate narrative. Labor market weakness reduces the Fed's urgency to tighten — typically supportive for risk assets. A 15-point drop in hike probability in a single print is the kind of move that can reprice the front end quickly. If upcoming data confirms the slowdown, a dovish pivot narrative gains traction and BTC along with broader crypto should benefit from the liquidity read-through. Watch for follow-through in rate-sensitive markets — the initial reaction is often just the first leg.
$KAT
$KSM
$KNC
June jobs report missed badly — just 𝟱𝟳,𝟬𝟬𝟬 𝗷𝗼𝗯𝘀 added vs ~110K expected, and May was revised down by 𝟰𝟯,𝟬𝟬𝟬. The unemployment rate ticked to 4.2%, but the headline miss immediately hit rate expectations: probability of a Fed rate hike by September dropped from 𝟲𝟱% 𝘁𝗼 𝟱𝟬%.
𝗛𝘂𝗽𝘇𝘆 𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲: This is a significant macro miss that shifts the rate narrative. Labor market weakness reduces the Fed's urgency to tighten — typically supportive for risk assets. A 15-point drop in hike probability in a single print is the kind of move that can reprice the front end quickly. If upcoming data confirms the slowdown, a dovish pivot narrative gains traction and BTC along with broader crypto should benefit from the liquidity read-through. Watch for follow-through in rate-sensitive markets — the initial reaction is often just the first leg.
$KAT
$KSM
$KNC