The market's biggest mistake is not being wrong.
It's deciding too early.
One of the strangest things I've observed across multiple cycles is how quickly crowds decide what a project is before understanding what it actually does. Discovery used to be a process. Now it often feels like a race to establish a narrative first.
Attention compresses uncertainty.
A few opinions appear. A few assumptions spread. Then people begin reacting to the perception rather than the underlying idea.
That's what makes @GeniusOfficial interesting to me right now.
Not because I know how the story ends.
Because the social dynamics are already visible.
I've seen this pattern before. I once held an asset for months before realizing the market wasn't pricing the product. It was pricing a collective interpretation of the product.
That realization stayed with me.
The uncomfortable reality is that perception can become self-sustaining. Once enough people repeat the same conclusion, every new piece of information gets filtered through it. The narrative starts shaping reality instead of describing it.
What I still do not know is whether utility ever fully corrects a narrative that formed this fast.
Every cycle leaves me with the same thought.
Understanding competes with narrative, and narrative usually gets there first.
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