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The final weeks of the year are typically a period of reduced exposure in the cryptocurrency market. Large holders and so-called “smart money” often scale back positions in December to lock in profits, raise cash, and wait for the low-liquidity environment to pass. This seasonal pattern is well established and frequently results in muted price action across the market.
However, beneath the surface, on-chain data suggests a different narrative for select assets. While overall participation declines, crypto whales are actively increasing their holdings in several tokens — but across different time horizons. Some assets show steady accumulation over the past 30 days, others are seeing strong inflows over the last week, and one token has attracted fresh whale interest within just the past 24 hours. These divergent accumulation patterns may offer clues about where longer-term positioning is forming ahead of early 2026.
Chainlink (LINK): Quiet Accumulation Despite Price Weakness
Chainlink (LINK) stands out as the most consistently accumulated asset over the past month. Over the last 30 days, whale wallets have increased their LINK holdings by 57.79%, adding approximately 680,000 LINK. At current prices, this accumulation is valued at nearly $8.5 million.
What makes this accumulation notable is the broader market context. During the same period, LINK’s price declined by roughly 7.5%. Meanwhile, smart money wallets reduced their exposure by 5.2%. This divergence suggests that whales may be positioning for a larger, delayed move rather than expecting an immediate short-term rally.
From a technical perspective, the Bull Bear Power (BBP) indicator supports this interpretation. Since December 24, the red BBP histogram bars — representing selling pressure — have been steadily shrinking. BBP measures the distance between price and a moving average, helping identify which side currently controls momentum. A contraction in red bars typically signals that bearish pressure is weakening rather than accelerating.
LINK is currently attempting to reclaim the short-term resistance zone near $12.50. A daily close above this level would place the token back into a short-term breakout structure. Additional resistance levels to monitor include $12.98 and $13.75, while a move above $15.00 would confirm a clearer bullish trend.
Until $12.50 is decisively recovered, LINK may continue to trade sideways as accumulation unfolds gradually. On the downside, a drop below $11.72 would invalidate the current bullish accumulation thesis and suggest that whales may need to reassess their positioning.
Lido DAO (LDO): Whales Buy Strength as Staking Narrative Persists
Over the past 7 days, whale activity has shifted toward Lido DAO (LDO). During this period, whale balances increased by 30.34%, bringing total holdings to approximately 17.49 million LDO. This includes around 4.07 million LDO accumulated in just one week, valued at roughly $2.28 million at current prices.
Unlike LINK, LDO has risen about 4.2% over the same timeframe, indicating that whales are accumulating into strength rather than weakness. Several large purchases were publicly identifiable, most notably by Arthur Hayes, who acquired approximately 1.85 million LDO worth around $1.03 million. This explains the parallel increase in holdings attributed to “public figure” wallets.
In contrast, smart money wallets reduced their exposure by 7.75%. At the same time, exchange balances declined by 1.49%, suggesting that smaller participants are withdrawing tokens from exchanges rather than selling into the rally. This divergence implies that the whale thesis may require time to play out, potentially extending into early 2026 rather than delivering immediate upside.
Technically, LDO remains range-bound between $0.49 and $0.59. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator — which tracks cumulative buying and selling pressure — broke its downtrend on December 23, aligning closely with the increase in whale accumulation.
A daily close above $0.59 would confirm renewed buying strength. This level was briefly lost on December 14 and has not yet been reclaimed. If momentum continues to build, the next key levels to watch are $0.76 (the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement) and $0.92, where market structure could transition from consolidation to a broader uptrend.
Until a breakout occurs, range trading remains the dominant scenario. A breakdown below $0.49 would invalidate the current structure, especially if smart money continues to reduce exposure during year-end volatility.
Aster (ASTER): Early Signs of Bottom Fishing
The third token drawing whale attention is Aster (ASTER), though its accumulation profile differs markedly from LINK and LDO. Instead of sustained buying over weeks, ASTER has seen a sharp increase in whale holdings over the past 24 hours. Whale balances rose by 2.37% in a single day, bringing total holdings to approximately 19.23 million ASTER, valued at just over $320,000.
While the absolute size of this accumulation is modest, its timing is notable. ASTER has declined more than 30% over the past month, suggesting that whales may be testing early-stage accumulation following heavy distribution.
Price action supports this cautious interpretation. ASTER fell sharply from around $1.40 on November 19 and found consistent support near $0.65 throughout December. Selling pressure has steadily weakened, as reflected in the Wyckoff Volume indicator. Since December 15, red and yellow volume bars — which indicate seller dominance — have gradually diminished in size, signaling a loss of control by sellers rather than aggressive buying by bulls.
If whale positioning proves correct, an initial recovery would likely target $0.83, representing approximately 16% upside from current levels. A successful move above $0.83 could open the door to $1.03 and potentially $1.24 under favorable market conditions.
However, this thesis remains fragile. A decisive breakdown below $0.65 would invalidate the accumulation narrative and expose ASTER to the risk of setting new lows amid ongoing year-end volatility.
Final Thoughts
Taken together, these accumulation patterns highlight how whale behavior can diverge significantly depending on time horizon and market structure. LINK reflects slow, methodical positioning during consolidation. LDO shows accumulation into strength tied to longer-term staking narratives. ASTER, by contrast, appears to represent speculative bottom fishing rather than confirmed trend reversal.
As liquidity returns in early 2026, these positions may provide insight into where larger players expect asymmetric opportunities to emerge — but patience and confirmation remain critical.
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Bitcoin’s price behavior throughout 2024–2025 reveals a growing divergence between an increasingly resilient on-chain structure and persistently restrictive global macroeconomic conditions. While internal crypto liquidity and supply-side dynamics supported Bitcoin’s rally in 2024, external forces—particularly elevated real yields and continued balance sheet contraction by the U.S. Federal Reserve—have imposed clear valuation constraints as the cycle matured.
This divergence marks a meaningful evolution from prior Bitcoin cycles, where on-chain strength and macro liquidity often moved in the same direction.
On-Chain Strength Fueled Bitcoin’s 2024 Rally
Bitcoin began 2024 trading near $42,000 and steadily advanced throughout the year, eventually surpassing the $100,000 level in Q4. This rally was not purely speculative; it was underpinned by a significant improvement in on-chain liquidity conditions.
Monthly inflows of ERC-20 stablecoins into centralized exchanges averaged between $38 billion and $45 billion, signaling deep pools of deployable capital ready to enter the crypto market. Interestingly, correlation analysis revealed a negative relationship (-0.32) between stablecoin inflows and Bitcoin net exchange flows. In other words, as liquidity entered exchanges, Bitcoin itself tended to be withdrawn.
This behavior points to accumulation rather than distribution, reinforcing the sustainability of the 2024 uptrend. It also aligns with the rise of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which encouraged longer-term institutional positioning rather than short-term speculative turnover.
Valuation metrics further supported this constructive backdrop. Bitcoin’s 365-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio rose from approximately 1.8 at the start of the year to around 2.2 by year-end. On longer timeframes, this suggested a market supported by solid structural demand rather than overheating excess.
Crucially, this allowed Bitcoin to extend higher without triggering widespread forced selling or aggressive profit-taking typically associated with late-stage speculative cycles.
Macro Tightening: The Invisible Ceiling in 2024
Despite strong on-chain fundamentals, macroeconomic conditions moved in the opposite direction. Throughout 2024, U.S. 10-year real yields remained firmly positive, averaging between 1.7% and 1.9%. At the same time, the Federal Reserve continued quantitative tightening, reducing its balance sheet from $7.6 trillion to approximately $6.8 trillion by year-end.
This $800 billion liquidity withdrawal increased the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin. Yet, internal crypto liquidity proved strong enough to offset these headwinds, enabling Bitcoin to deliver a 121% annual gain in 2024.
This marked a notable departure from earlier cycles, where strong Bitcoin rallies were typically accompanied by falling real yields and expanding central bank balance sheets.
Macro Constraints Become Dominant in 2025
Entering 2025, the balance shifted. After establishing a cycle high, Bitcoin entered a phase of heightened volatility, with price fluctuating sharply between $126,000 and $75,000, even as on-chain structure remained broadly intact.
Stablecoin inflows into exchanges peaked in late 2024 and early 2025 before declining by roughly 50%, indicating a contraction in marginal buying power. Net exchange flows turned mixed and lacked the persistence needed to sustain extended rallies, suggesting that supply was gradually being distributed back into the market.
Valuation behavior reflected this transition. The 365-day MVRV average stabilized within a narrow 1.8–2.2 range throughout 2025—well above bear market levels, yet unable to expand further.
Statistical analysis of the 2024–2025 period shows that stablecoin inflows and exchange net flows explained less than 6% of MVRV variance, implying that on-chain capital flows were no longer the dominant drivers of valuation. Instead, macro variables increasingly set the ceiling.
Indeed, macro conditions remained restrictive. U.S. real yields averaged 1.6% to 2.1% during 2025, while the Fed’s balance sheet contracted further to approximately $6.5 trillion, removing an additional $300 billion in system liquidity.
Unlike earlier Bitcoin bull markets, which coincided with easing financial conditions, the 2025 environment continued to exert structural pressure.
What This Means for Bitcoin’s Outlook
The 2024–2025 data suggests Bitcoin has entered a regime where on-chain metrics define market structure, but macro variables determine valuation limits.
Declining exchange balances and stablecoin dynamics have helped cushion downside risk, preventing deeper drawdowns. However, a new phase of sustained price discovery is unlikely without a meaningful shift in financial conditions.
For investors and analysts, the implication is clear: relying solely on long-term on-chain indicators—without incorporating macroeconomic context—leads to incomplete conclusions.
In the current cycle, Bitcoin’s next major upside impulse is more likely to be triggered by falling real yields or renewed global liquidity expansion, rather than exchange flows alone.
Understanding Bitcoin now requires a dual lens: on-chain structure and macro reality.
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On December 24, on-chain analyst Auntie identified notable activity on Hyperliquid:
Three addresses deposited 2.47M USDC as collateral.
They opened 1.69M TST long positions, representing 42.3% of Hyperliquid’s total TST Open Interest.
These three addresses now hold the top three TST long positions on the platform.
Why they might be linked to a single entity:
Identical transaction patterns: BTCB withdrawn from binance → deposited to Aster → USDT withdrawn.
Collateral sourced directly from Gate or OKX and deposited into Hyperliquid.
TST longs are their only current holdings on Hyperliquid.
Notable history: One address (0x48c…bc9d0) previously opened a $TST long in early December, netting $31,000 profit.
This surge hints at a potential whale positioning in TST, which could influence market dynamics on Hyperliquid.
#Hyperliquid #TST #CryptoWhale #OnChainAnalysis #USDC #CryptoTrading #DeFi #Blockchain #CryptoNews #LongPosition #WhaleWatch #CryptoAlerts #Altcoins #CryptoMarket #TradingSignals

Historically, capitulation phases have coincided with major Bitcoin market bottoms. When short-term holders experience peak unrealized losses, panic-driven selling intensifies, forcing weaker participants out of the market. As this selling pressure exhausts, distribution declines and market structure begins to stabilize.
This transition typically creates an opportunity for long-term, conviction-driven investors to accumulate. In past cycles, such moments have often preceded strong recovery phases and sustained upward momentum.
#Bitcoin #BTC #OnChainAnalysis #CryptoMarket #MarketCycles