kevinwarsh

Donald Trump recently dropped a bombshell, calling his 2017 appointment of Jerome Powell as Fed Chair a "mistake." He didn’t stop there—he claimed that his preferred pick, Kevin Warsh, could have fueled up to 15% more economic growth.
For the average investor, this isn't just political drama. It’s a masterclass in how monetary policy dictates the pulse of the markets, including Bitcoin and Altcoins.
⚖️ Stability vs. Aggressive Growth
The core of the issue is a fundamental clash in economic philosophy:
Jerome Powell (The Stoic): Prioritizes inflation control and "higher for longer" rates. His approach is about preventing an overheat, even if it means slowing down the economy.
Kevin Warsh (The Accelerator): Seen as more growth-oriented. Trump believes Warsh’s flexible approach to rates would have lowered the cost of capital, boosted investment, and kept the U.S. more competitive.

📉 Why This Matters for Your Portfolio
The Fed doesn't just "set rates"—it controls the liquidity that flows into assets.
Cost of Capital: When the Fed is "growth-first," borrowing is cheaper. This creates a risk-on environment where stocks and Crypto thrive.
Market Narrative: Markets price in future expectations. If the world starts anticipating a shift toward a more aggressive, growth-focused Fed, we could see a massive shift in risk appetite.
Personnel is Policy: Tax laws change, but Fed policy compounds. One person’s decision on interest rates can define an entire decade of market cycles.
💡 The Big Takeaway
Trump’s comments remind us that Central Banks aren't just "neutral" institutions; they are run by people with specific risk tolerances.
Growth isn’t just about innovation—it’s about access to capital. If the person at the helm is willing to "push the system" harder, the trajectory for global markets (and digital assets) changes entirely.
The real question for us: Will the next era of the Fed prioritize cautious restraint or explosive growth? Because whatever they choose, it will be written in the charts.
#BinanceSquare #CryptoNews #TRUMP #FederalReserve #JeromePowell #KevinWarsh

في خطوة أرسلت صدمات من وول ستريت إلى أسواق العملات المشفرة، قام الرئيس دونالد ترامب رسميًا بوصف تعيينه لجيروم باول في عام 2017 بأنه "خطأ كبير". خلال مقابلة حديثة مع فوكس بيزنس، لم يعبر ترامب فقط عن ندمه السياسي؛ بل وضع رؤية جديدة جذرية للاقتصاد الأمريكي. وكشف أنه كان ينبغي عليه اختيار كيفن وارش منذ البداية، مدعيًا أنه تحت قيادة وارش، يمكن للاقتصاد الأمريكي أن يصل إلى معدل نمو انفجاري بنسبة 15٪.
بينما يصف العديد من الاقتصاديين هذا الرقم بأنه "متفائل"، إلا أن السوق لا تضحك - فهي تسعر تحولًا إجماليًا.

Recently, the upcoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has called for a new FED TREASURY ACCORD, basically a framework that would decide how the Fed and the U.S Treasury work together on debt, money printing, and interest rates.

This is not only about rate cuts.

Yes, markets expect Warsh to support rate cuts over time, possibly bringing rates down toward the 2.75%–3.0% range.

But the bigger story is what happens behind the scenes.

Warsh has long argued that the Fed’s massive balance sheet, built through years of bond buying pulls the central bank too deep into government financing.

So his plan could involve:

- The Fed holding more short term Treasury bills instead of long term bonds.

- A smaller overall balance sheet.

- Limits on when large bond buying programs can happen.

- Closer coordination with the Treasury on debt issuance.

And this is where history matters. Because the U.S. has already done something very similar before. During World War II, government debt exploded from about $48 billion to over $260 billion in just six years. To manage borrowing costs, the Fed stepped in and controlled interest rates directly.

Short-term yields were fixed near 0.375% and Long-term yields were capped near 2.5%.

If yields tried to rise, the Fed printed money and bought bonds to push them back down. This policy is known as Yield Curve Control. It helped the government borrow cheaply during the war.

But it came with consequences.

Once wartime controls ended, inflation surged sharply. Real interest rates turned negative. And the Fed lost independence over monetary policy. By 1951, the system broke down and the famous Treasury Fed Accord ended yield caps.

Now fast forward to today.

U.S. debt levels are again near World War II levels relative to the economy. Interest payments alone are approaching $1 trillion per year. Even a small drop in long term yields would save the government tens of billions in financing costs. That fiscal pressure is why Warsh’s proposal is getting so much attention.

Other countries also tried something similar.

- Japan ran yield curve control from 2016 to 2024.

Its central bank ended up owning more than 50% of government bonds. Yields stayed low, but the yen weakened and bond market liquidity suffered.

- Australia tried a smaller version in 2020–2021.

When inflation surged, they were forced into a messy exit that hurt central bank credibility.

Across all these cases, the pattern was similar:

Borrowing costs stayed low. Liquidity stayed high. Currencies weakened. Exits were difficult.

If Warsh’s framework leads to lower real yields, rate cuts, and easier liquidity conditions, that usually supports risk assets like equities, gold, and crypto.

Because when bond returns fall, capital looks for higher-return alternatives. But bonds themselves could face volatility.

Less Fed support for long term yields combined with heavy Treasury issuance could steepen the yield curve and push term premiums higher and that's why this could become the most important structural shift in U.S. monetary policy since the 1940s yield curve control era.
#KevinWarsh #bullishleo #Fed

#WarshFedPolicyOutlook **Kevin Warsh’s Vision for the Fed: Regime Change, Rate Cuts, and a Leaner Balance Sheet?**

The Federal Reserve stands at a pivotal crossroads as **Kevin Warsh**, President Trump’s nominee for Fed Chair, prepares for what could be one of the most consequential leadership transitions in recent years. Warsh, a former Fed Governor (2006–2011), has long been a vocal critic of the central bank’s post-crisis policies. Now, with his nomination drawing intense scrutiny, market participants are dissecting what a **Warsh-led Fed** could mean for monetary policy, interest rates, inflation, and the broader crypto and financial markets in 2026.

### From Inflation Hawk to Advocate for Easing?
Warsh built his reputation as an **inflation hawk** during his tenure, frequently emphasizing the need to anchor inflation expectations and protect central bank credibility — even as he supported rate cuts or holds in many meetings. He warned against perceptions of tolerance for higher inflation and stressed forward-looking policy adjustments.

In recent months, however, Warsh has aligned more closely with calls for **lower interest rates**, citing an impending **AI-driven productivity boom** that could fuel robust growth without reigniting inflation. He argues this structural shift allows the Fed to ease policy more aggressively than traditional models suggest, potentially justifying cuts even with inflation lingering above the 2% target.

Analysts note this evolution: while some fear a reversion to hawkishness post-confirmation, others — including Goldman Sachs — see Warsh positioning as relatively dovish on rates in the near term, viewing AI as deflationary and downplaying persistent inflation risks.

### Key Pillars of Warsh’s Outlook
1. **Regime Change at the Fed**
Warsh has repeatedly called for a strategic reset — refocusing the Fed on its core dual mandate (maximum employment and price stability), curbing “mission creep,” limiting discretionary power, and restoring intellectual rigor and accountability. He envisions a narrower, more disciplined central bank, less entangled in expansive interventions.

2. **Shrinking the Fed’s Balance Sheet**
A consistent theme in Warsh’s commentary is reducing the Fed’s oversized footprint. He opposes large-scale asset purchases (QE) and favors a gradual unwind, potentially through a new **Treasury–Fed accord** to coordinate shrinking the balance sheet (possibly shifting toward shorter-duration holdings). While major reductions face practical hurdles, this could signal tighter liquidity conditions over time.

3. **Interest Rate Path in 2026**
Markets currently price in around **50 basis points** of cuts this year. Warsh appears supportive of at least the two 25-bp reductions projected in the latest dot plot, possibly even a third to bring the fed funds rate toward the neutral range (~2.75–3.00%). His productivity optimism underpins a more flexible easing stance, though consensus-building on the FOMC remains key.

4. **Independence vs. Political Pressures**
Warsh stresses preserving Fed independence while acknowledging that criticism from the executive branch is fair game. He rejects deep political loyalty but has echoed administration-friendly views on rates and growth. The challenge: balancing reform ambitions with FOMC dynamics and avoiding perceptions of undue influence.

### Implications for Crypto and Risk Assets
A Warsh Fed could introduce a mixed bag for Bitcoin and crypto markets:
- **Supportive near-term easing** (rate cuts) would bolster risk appetite and liquidity — positive for BTC.
- **Longer-term balance sheet discipline** and reduced QE reliance might tighten financial conditions over time, pressuring high-volatility assets.
- **Productivity/AI optimism** aligns with narratives driving crypto adoption (tech innovation, decentralized finance), potentially reinforcing long-term bullish sentiment.

However, uncertainty around confirmation, FOMC consensus, and how aggressively Warsh pursues “regime change” could keep volatility elevated.

### Final Thoughts
Kevin Warsh’s Fed policy outlook blends hawkish roots with pragmatic, growth-oriented flexibility. If confirmed, expect a thoughtful but potentially unpredictable approach: more forward-looking on rates, disciplined on the balance sheet, and committed to refocusing the institution. Whether this delivers the lower borrowing costs and economic tailwinds markets crave — or triggers friction with colleagues and data realities — will shape the 2026 macro landscape.

Traders and investors should monitor Senate proceedings, upcoming FOMC signals, and Warsh’s public statements closely. In crypto, as always, stay nimble and manage risk amid shifting policy winds.

Stay tuned to Binance Square for more macro insights and crypto updates.
#WarshFedPolicyOutlook #FederalReserve #KevinWarsh
$BTC
$ETH
$BNB

في 30 يناير 2026، رشح الرئيس دونالد ترامب رسمياً محافظ الاحتياطي الفيدرالي السابق كيفين وارش ليخلف جيروم باول كرئيس التالي للاحتياطي الفيدرالي. إذا تم تأكيده من قبل مجلس الشيوخ، من المتوقع أن يتولى وارش منصبه في منتصف مايو 2026، مما يمثل "تغييراً في النظام" في كيفية عمل البنك المركزي.

توقعات السياسة النقدية لعام 2026
توقعات وارش لعام 2026 تتميز بأنها "متحفظة دورياً ولكن صارمة هيكلياً". بينما كان تاريخياً من دعاة التضخم، فإن موقفه الأخير يتماشى مع رغبة الإدارة في خفض تكاليف الاقتراض.