Short answer:
Directly – no.
Indirectly – yes, sometimes quite strongly.
What perpetual futures do not do
Perpetual contracts:
do not trade the actual asset (no real coins are bought or sold),
do not automatically change the spot price,
are derivatives → their price is anchored to the spot market, not the other way around.
In other words, there is no direct mechanism where “futures set the spot price”.
What actually happens (the important part)
1️⃣ Funding rate – the link between futures and spot
Perpetual futures use a funding rate to stay close to the spot price:
If the futures price is higher than spot, longs pay shorts
If the futures price is lower than spot, shorts pay longs
👉 This encourages arbitrage:
traders buy spot and short futures, or
sell spot and go long futures.
This is where the indirect influence on the spot market begins.
2️⃣ Liquidations → real market orders
During mass liquidations:
exchanges execute market orders,
these hit the order book,
algorithms and market makers react.
📌 If at that moment:
liquidity is thin, or
market makers pull back,
→ the spot price often moves in the same direction.
3️⃣ Psychology and signaling effect
The futures market:
usually has higher volume,
uses leverage,
reacts faster to news.
Many participants:
monitor OI, funding rates, long/short ratios,
and make spot trading decisions based on futures data.
👉 This is behavioral influence, not a mechanical one.
4️⃣ Manipulation ≠ control
Large players:
can move the futures market more easily due to leverage,
but cannot directly control the spot price without real capital.
That’s why we often see:
a move starting in futures,
followed by confirmation (or rejection) in spot.
The statement:
“Futures do not affect the real price”
🔹 Technically – correct
🔹 From a market perspective – incomplete
A more accurate formulation would be:
Futures do not set the spot price, but they can accelerate it, distort it, or temporarily push it through liquidations, arbitrage, and market psychology.
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