bitcoin

منذ أغسطس الماضي، حذرت من أن مستوى 108,000 دولار لا يمكن أن يُفقد في البيتكوين وإلا سندخل في دورة هبوطية وسيكون من الصعب.
أنا لست خبيرًا ولا أملك كرة بلورية.
لكنني أحاول أن أكون مطلعًا وأ dedicates الكثير من الوقت لفهم ما هو الهالفينغ. أفهم تكاليف التعدين. أفهم الستاكينغ. أفهم الرفع المالي.
لكن فوق كل شيء، نحتاج إلى فهم كيف يقودنا كل هذا إلى الدورات.
هذا الرسم البياني قوي جداً لفهم البيتكوين.
كل خط هو دورة منذ التقسيم. يحدث هذا الحدث كل 4 سنوات.
جعلت الدورة الأولى (الزرقاء) الارتفاع في وقت مبكر بعض الشيء ولكن الدورات التالية حققت ارتفاعاتها في نفس اللحظة. جميع الانخفاضات حدثت بعد عام من الوصول إلى هذا الارتفاع.
تبدو هذه الدورة الأخيرة (الصفراء القوية) أصغر وهذا ليس من قبيل المصادفة. لاحظ أن كل دورة أصغر من سابقتها.
وهذا منطقي.
دورات البيتكوين هي تضخمية ولوغاريتمية.
تضخمية ولوغاريتمية؟
هذا أمر حيوي. دعني أترجمه لك.
يجب أن يتبع البيتكوين التضخم لأنه أصل محدود مثل الذهب أو العقارات في مناطق معينة.
سهل ولكن لوغاريتمي؟
هذا شيء لا يمكنك تجاهله بعد الآن.
🤔 دورات البيتكوين ترتفع أقل في كل مرة.
أحد الأسباب هو أنه كلما زاد رأس المال لأصل، زادت تكلفته للحفاظ على ارتفاعه. المال في العالم محدود، وبالتالي عندما يتراكم شيء ما بمليارات، يبدأ أن يكون من المعقد جعله ينمو بمعدل أسرع من التضخم.
لكن يجب أن تعرف أيضًا أنه في التقسيمات، يتم تقليل المكافآت للعمال.
في البداية كان هذا يعني تقليصًا هائلًا للعديد من البيتكوين، مما دفع السعر إلى الارتفاع بشكل كبير. لكن الآن المكافأة بالكاد تقلصت بمقدار 3 أو 1 بيتكوين، لذا لا يمكن أن يرتفع السعر بنفس الوتيرة.
إذا انتبهنا للدورات السابقة، سيستمر البيتكوين في الانخفاض في 2026 حتى نهاية العام قبل بدء الانتعاش. هذا هو السيناريو الأكثر احتمالاً حتى الآن.
هذا يكفي عن نظرية البيتكوين، فلنذهب إلى الجزء العملي.
🚀 أين ستحدث هذه الانخفاضات؟
لا أعرف ولا أحد يعرف، لكن لدينا أدلة.
في كل من الدورات، رأينا السعر يتراجع من الارتفاعات.
والكثير.
الدورة الأولى هبطت بنسبة 85%
الثانية هبطت بنسبة 80%
الثالثة هبطت بنسبة 75%
وماذا الآن؟
ربما 70%؟ قد يكون. إنها مجرد تقدير.
هذا الانخفاض الأخير إلى 60,000 دولار هو بالفعل إنجاز كبير حيث تصحح السعر بنسبة 50%، لكن في الدورات السابقة نرى أن الأفضل لا يزال قادمًا. يمكن أن ينخفض بنسبة أخرى تصل إلى 50% إلى 30,000 أو 40,000 دولار للوصول إلى مستويات قريبة من تصحيح بنسبة 70%، وهو ما يبدو معقولًا بناءً على السلوك السابق.
من حيث السعر، يبدو أن هناك فجوة يجب ملؤها ومن حيث الوقت، يكون الأمر أفضل.
مدة تصحيح الدورة الأولى هي 12 شهرًا
مدة تصحيح الدورة الثانية هي 12 شهرًا
مدة تصحيح الدورة الثالثة هي 12 شهرًا
إذا استمر هذا الدورة الرابعة بنفس طول الدورات السابقة، سنتحدث عن رؤية لحظة الألم الأقصى في أكتوبر 2026.
هذه هي اللحظة التي سنقول فيها جميعًا أن $BTC ستذهب إلى 0.
من يعرف.
لكن، إذا بدأنا في التراكم في منطقة 60,000 دولار وادخرنا بعض المال لمنطقة 30-40,000 دولار، يمكننا بسهولة أن نحقق متوسط مركز 50,000 دولار خلال 2026.
بعد ثلاث سنوات يجب أن نكون عند ذروة الدورة التالية، والتي يمكن أن تكون أعلى قليلاً من آخر 120,000 دولار (ذروة الدورة الحالية) وفقًا لتقدم لوغاريتمي.
دعنا نفترض 150,000 دولار. (وهو رقم أستمده من سلسلة من الارتفاعات السابقة، لكن هناك الكثير من الرياضيات اليوم)
نتحدث عن بيع الاستثمار بثلاثة أضعاف السعر في 3 سنوات. هذه عائد ليس سيئًا على الإطلاق.
المخاطرة هي الكاملة. أذهب بدون وقف خسارة. إنها استثمار طموح وفي أي حال ليست حماية رأس المال.
وأثناء انتظارنا لوصول السعر إلى المنطقة المناسبة لمواصلة الشراء، يمكنك أيضًا القيام بصفقة سريعة لالتقاط الارتفاع التالي بنسبة 10%.
👇 تريد المزيد؟
🚀 اضغط على الصاروخ، اقرأ ملفي الشخصي واتبعني حتى نتمكن من العثور على بعضنا مجددًا.
#BTC #bitcoin #TrendingTopic
$XRP $ETH

Are you seeing red? You’re not alone. A single whale just decided to shake the entire market, and the results are devastating for high-leverage traders.
🐋 The $340 Million "Power Play"
A massive whale moved $340,000,000 in BTC to Binance. This wasn't just a transfer; it was a calculated strike:
1st Deposit: Immediate $2,700 price drop.
2nd Deposit: Another $3,000 plunge within hours.
The Goal: Maximize damage and hunt liquidity.
📉 The Critical Danger Zone: $66K - $67K
Bitcoin is currently fighting for its life in the $66,000 - $67,000 support zone.
Warning: If this level fails to hold, we are looking at a fast slide toward last week's lows. Selling pressure is relentless, and "Degens" using 50x to 100x leverage are being wiped out in seconds.
🎯 The "Ping-Pong" Scenario
Analysts are predicting a "double-trap" move to liquidate both sides:
The Shakeout: A quick revisit to $65,000 to flush out the remaining Longs.
The Relief Pump: A sudden surge back to $68,000 once the "weak hands" have sold.
🛑 How to Survive This Whale Attack?
Stop Gambling: 100x leverage is pure suicide in this volatility.
Watch the Clusters: Whales are hunting stop-losses at whole numbers.
Spot is King: In a market ruled by manipulation, holding spot is your only shield against liquidation.
🗳️ QUICK POLL:
The Whale is watching... what’s your move?
1️⃣ Buying the Dip! 🚀
2️⃣ Waiting for $65K... 🧐
3️⃣ Staying out until the dust settles 🏃‍♂️
Drop your strategy in the comments! 👇
#bitcoin #BTC #WhaleAlert #CryptoMarket #tradingtips $BTC

In an interview broadcast by CNBC on February 11, 2026, during the Consensus Hong Kong 2026 events, Richard Teng, CEO of Binance, delivered reassuring yet striking statements amid the sharp collapse in Bitcoin and crypto prices

Teng said: "The world's largest institutions are now buying Bitcoin from the depths!" He stressed that institutional buying remains extremely active despite widespread volatility and FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt)

Teng affirmed that "market resilience is very real," citing clear data: institutional holdings remain stable at around 1.3 million Bitcoin, with approximately 43,000 BTC added in January 2026 alone

This indicates that major players are not panic-selling but capitalizing on the dip to accumulate. He added: "Institutions are actively buying—do not trust the FUD," warning against following short-term media noise

Teng urged the community to "HODL" (hold strongly), stating: "Please HODL, institutional support is strong"

He sees support coming from multiple directions: explosive growth in stablecoin usage (tripled over the past year), a roughly 50% rise in total market capitalization, expanding crypto payments, and accelerating tokenization of real-world assets (RWA)

He also noted that most major financial institutions he meets are exploring moving trading to blockchain for 24/7 access, while traditional exchanges like NYSE and Nasdaq push toward longer trading hours—an approach converging with the crypto model

These reports of "institutional stability at low levels" raise a major question: Is this truly a strong bullish signal? Yes, according to Teng and many analysts. Historically, when institutions accumulate during crashes, major recoveries often follow, as they provide a "structural bid" beneath the price

Although some selling may come from early non-institutional whales or short-term traders, institutional accumulation reduces available supply and builds a stronger base

Ultimately, Richard Teng's message is clear: volatility is temporary, and the future belongs to digital assets

With ongoing institutional adoption, positive regulation in Asia (such as Hong Kong's new initiatives for virtual assets), and the steadfastness of large holdings, this "deep dip" appears to be a historic buying opportunity before the bulls return with force

For long-term investors, now is the time for conviction and accumulation—not panic

#BitcoinGoogleSearchesSurge #bitcoin #MarketCorrection

$BTC
$BNB

A Modern Perspective from Morgan Stanley in 2026
In February 2026, Morgan Stanley released an important report highlighting the impact of artificial intelligence developments on the software and cloud computing sectors — and how these changes may indirectly affect digital asset markets, particularly Bitcoin. This analysis reflects a balance between clear risks and potential opportunities in a fast-moving, volatile market environment.
1. Cloud Computing: Opportunities Amid Price Pressure
Despite recent declines in cloud computing stock prices, underlying growth fundamentals remain strong. Demand for cloud services continues to rise due to AI adoption, and major platforms like AWS and Google Cloud are still achieving impressive year-over-year growth.
📌 The price drop does not indicate weak demand; rather, it reflects a market repricing as investors distinguish between companies that can effectively monetize AI opportunities and those that may face operational challenges.
👉 Key opportunities lie with companies showing sustained revenue growth and operational strength.
2. Software and AI: Measurable Market Pressures
In a recent report, Morgan Stanley warned that growing concerns about AI’s impact are affecting credit markets tied to the software sector. The decline in software stock prices has put pressure on loans worth a significant portion of the U.S. market — around 16% of the $1.5 trillion market — with a substantial share of these loans carrying below-investment-grade ratings.
📊 Importantly, the risk is not limited to stocks; credit markets are also impacted. This has led investors and private debt funds to reassess risks in acquisitions and mergers.
Morgan Stanley notes that while widespread defaults are not imminent, price volatility in loans is expected to continue until the sector adapts to AI adoption.
3. Bitcoin and Digital Assets: Reflecting Technical Shifts
While the report primarily focuses on stocks and credit, the implications extend indirectly to Bitcoin and digital assets.
📌 Institutional adoption of Bitcoin via ETFs is one of the key drivers of medium-term support, providing a bridge between traditional financial markets and digital assets. This enhances liquidity and attracts institutional capital. Retail and institutional investors alike are exploring products like Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust to integrate Bitcoin as a hedge or a portfolio allocation.
From a market perspective, Bitcoin continues to respond to both technological and financial developments:
Institutional adoption and AI integration,
Inclusion of Bitcoin ETFs in mainstream brokerage accounts,
Investors seeking hedging opportunities with assets less correlated to traditional equities.
👉 This highlights Bitcoin’s growing role as a portfolio component, though it remains sensitive to overall market volatility and changing investor expectations.
4. Key Takeaways👇
🔹 Cloud Computing: Opportunities persist in companies with strong financial performance and sustainable growth.
🔹 Software & AI: Market pressures and credit risks are real amid AI-related concerns.
🔹 Bitcoin: Gradual institutional adoption through ETFs is a support factor, but volatility remains.
📌 Final insight: A smart investor distinguishes short-term price noise from long-term fundamentals, focusing on diversified portfolios, risk management, and assets with sustainable growth, rather than reacting impulsively to every market fluctuation.

In financial markets, especially within the volatile crypto landscape, the trap is always hidden in the "noise." Most traders get lost in daily candles and hourly fluctuations, while the true narrative is written on the higher timeframes. When you zoom out and look at Bitcoin ($BTC ) through a "hawk-eye" lens on the weekly chart, a story we’ve seen before begins to emerge—one that requires surgical precision to interpret.
Historically, Bitcoin rotates through a rhythmic cycle: Impulse → Consolidation → Impulse → Exhaustion. The most recent major leg up carried all the hallmarks of a late-cycle move: aggressive expansion, shallow pullbacks that left sidelined buyers behind, and relentless continuation. This behavior is typically the "signature" of a cycle top rather than a fresh beginning.
A Shift in Market Character: Reading Current Behavior
The "personality" of the price action has shifted significantly. We are no longer seeing that raw, impulsive drive. Instead, we are witnessing structural signals that lean toward a Distribution phase:
Stacking Lower Highs: Price is consistently failing to reclaim previous peaks with conviction.
Compression within Tightening Ranges: $BTC is squeezing into a narrower corridor, signaling a standoff between buyers and sellers.
Cooling Volatility & Fading Momentum: The waves are no longer impulsive; they are hesitant. They stall at key levels and lack clean follow-through.
This structural slowdown suggests that the market needs a "reset." Historically, this reset manifests in one of two ways: either extended sideways action designed to exhaust the patience of retail holders, or a deep corrective leg to flush out over-leveraged positions before a sustainable trend can resume.
The Signal for a True Bullish Shift
A genuine bullish reversal won't be subtle, and it won't require guesswork. It will manifest as:
Strong Impulse Legs that break through liquidity zones with authority.
Clear Continuation—holding above breakout levels rather than immediate retracements.
Decisive Momentum backed by volume that reflects "Smart Money" accumulation rather than retail speculation.
The Golden Rule: We are currently in a "Patience Environment," not a "Prediction Environment." The market is not handing out easy wins right now; the greatest risk lies in trying to front-run a move before the structure confirms it.
The Bottom Line
Watch behavior, not hope. Bitcoin is currently signaling that the rules of the game have changed and that "clean momentum" has taken a backseat. Liquidity always seeks the path of least resistance—and until the structure shifts back to impulsive expansion, caution remains the most profitable strategy.
#bitcoin #BTC #TechnicalAnalysis #priceaction $BTC

This is the Bitcoin Situation for the Next 3 Years

Since last August I warned that the $108,000 level could not be lost in Bitcoin or else we entered a bearish cycle and it was going to be hard.

I am not a guru nor do I have a crystal ball.

But I try to get informed and I dedicate a lot of time to understanding what a Halving is. I understand mining costs. I understand staking. I understand leverage.

But above all we need to understand how all this leads us to CYCLES.

This chart is very powerful for understanding Bitcoin.

Each line is a cycle since its Halving. This event happens every 4 years.

The first cycle (the blue one) made the high somewhat earlier but the following cycles have made their highs at the same moment. All the lows have happened one year after reaching this high.

This last cycle (the strong yellow one) looks smaller and this is not a coincidence. Notice that each cycle is smaller than the previous one.

And this makes sense.

Bitcoin cycles are INFLATIONARY AND LOGARITHMIC.

Inflationary and logarithmic?

This is vital. Let me translate it for you.

Bitcoin should follow inflation because it is a finite asset like gold or real estate in certain areas.

Easy but logarithmic?

This is something you can't IGNORE anymore.

🤔 Bitcoin cycles go up less every time.

One reason is that the more an asset capitalizes the more it costs to keep it going up. Money in the world is finite and therefore when something capitalizes billions it starts to be complicated to make it grow in a faster rate than inflation.

But you must also know that in the Halvings the rewards to miners are reduced.

At the beginning this meant a beastly reduction of many BTCs which drove the price very high. But now the reward is barely reduced by 3 or 1 BTC so the price cannot rise at the same pace.

If we pay attention to previous cycles Bitcoin will keep falling in 2026 until the end of the year before starting a recovery. This is the most likely scenario right now.

So much for Bitcoin theory so let us go to the practical part.

🚀 Where will this low happen?

I do not know and nobody knows but we have clues.

In each of the cycles we have seen the price retreat from highs.

And a lot.

The first cycle down 85%
The second down 80%
The third down 75%

And now?

Maybe 70%? It could be. It is just an approximation.

This last drop to $60,000 is already a great milestone as the price has corrected 50% but in previous cycles we see that the best is still to come. It can fall another 50% down to $30k or $40k to meet the levels close to 70% correction which would seem plausible based on previous behavior.

In terms of price it seems there is a gap to fill and in terms of time it is even better.

Correction time of first cycle is 12 months
Correction time of second cycle is 12 months
Correction time of third cycle is 12 months

If this fourth cycle lasts the same as the previous ones we will be talking about seeing the moment of maximum pain in October 2026.

That is the moment where we will all say that $BTC is going to 0.

Who knows.

But, if we start accumulating in the $60k zone and save some money for the $30-40k area, we could easily average a $50k position during 2026.

After three years we should be at the next cycle peak which following a logarithmic progression could be somewhat higher than these last $120k (current cycle peak).

Let us assume $150k. (Which is a number I get from the serie of previous rallies, but there is too much math for today)

We are talking about selling the investment for triple the price in 3 years. That is a return that is not bad at all.

The risk is total. I go without a Stop Loss. It is aspirational investment and in no case is it capital protection.

And while we wait for the price to reach the right zone to keep buying, you could also make a quick trade to catch the next 10% rally.

👇 WANT MORE?

🚀 Hit the rocket, read my profile and follow so we can find each other again.
#BTC #bitcoin #TrendingTopic

let's talk about something most crypto people don't want to admit: bitcoin might have already won its biggest battle and lost its biggest opportunity at the same time.
the uncomfortable truth about bitcoin's next 10x
in my view, bitcoin no longer has the potential to increase in value by 1,000x, 100x, or even 10x. i know that sounds bearish, but hear me out.
fifteen years ago, bitcoin emerged at the perfect moment right after the 2008 financial crisis when trust in governments, banks, and fiat currencies was at historic lows. remember occupy wall street? the tea party? that was real rage. bitcoin offered something different: decentralized, scarce, and completely outside the traditional financial system.
back then, the extreme volatility (70% to 90% drawdowns, multiple times) was tolerable because it was always followed by 5x, 10x, sometimes even 100x rallies. much of this growth was driven by waves of new, highly leveraged investors attracted by returns that were literally impossible to find in traditional assets.
the discovery phase is over
today, bitcoin is widely known. your parents have heard of it. your barber has an opinion on it. that one friend who still uses a flip phone? yeah, they know what bitcoin is too.
this dramatically reduces the likelihood of massive new inflows purely from discovery. the "wait until people find out about this" narrative is dead. people found out. they either bought in or decided not to.
at the same time, investors seeking speculative upside now have alternatives: gold, silver, tech stocks like tesla, or other high-risk assets that offer more stability while satisfying the same appetite for outsized gains.
we got what we asked for (and it killed the dream)
here's the paradox that nobody wants to acknowledge:
bitcoin spent years fighting for mainstream institutional and governmental acceptance. that day has arrived.
etfs exist ✓banks offer exposure ✓regulators have frameworks ✓institutions are accumulating ✓
yet this acceptance has not translated into widespread use as a medium of exchange for goods and services. instead, financialization has deepened.
large institutions can now trade "paper bitcoin" through derivatives, potentially expanding synthetic supply through futures and short selling. the original scarcity narrative — the thing that made bitcoin special — gets diluted within the modern financial system.
"we wanted wall street to accept bitcoin. they did. then they turned it into another tradfi product."
~ every og bitcoiner, probably
so what's the path forward?
i struggle to see a clear trajectory for bitcoin under its current setup. the explosive growth phase was fueled by:
novelty (now gone)distrust in traditional systems (institutions co-opted it)extreme volatility cycles (being smoothed out by institutional participation)
now that bitcoin is widely known, institutionalized, and deeply integrated into mainstream finance, the asymmetric upside that defined its early years appears structurally harder to repeat.
the one scenario that could change everything
one potential catalyst would be genuine, large-scale adoption as a unit of account for globally traded commodities — oil, gas, strategic resources.
if major exporters began pricing and settling contracts in #bitcoin , demand would shift from speculative to transactional. that would represent a structural transformation, not just another hype cycle.
however, this would require:
geopolitical realignmentsovereign-level coordinationprice stability (the irony)
and here's where it gets really interesting...
the cruel irony: legitimacy kills volatility
paradoxically, if bitcoin achieved that level of real-economy integration, investors would have to say goodbye to the volatility that historically drove outsized returns.
a currency used for large-scale commodity settlement cannot swing 20-30% in a week without creating systemic risk. stability would become a feature, not a bug.
and while stability could validate bitcoin as infrastructure, it would also kill its appeal as a high-beta speculative asset.
in that scenario, bitcoin might mature into a low-volatility settlement layer — valuable, sure, but unlikely to deliver the exponential gains that early adopters experienced.
the identity crisis
this is bitcoin's real problem in 2026:
is it:
digital gold? (then it competes with actual gold)a payments network? (then it competes with visa/mastercard)a speculative asset? (then it competes with tech stocks)global reserve currency? (then it needs stability, killing returns)
it can't be all of these things simultaneously. and trying to be everything to everyone might mean it ends up being nothing special to anyone.
what this means for crypto broadly
if bitcoin — the flagship, the original, the most trusted — is facing this identity crisis, what does that mean for the rest of crypto?
defi promised to replace banks. instead, it became a casino.
nfts promised digital ownership. instead, they became jpgs of monkeys.
web3 promised decentralization. instead, it became vc-funded startups with tokens.
the pattern is clear: crypto gets absorbed by the system it was supposed to replace, then loses the properties that made it interesting in the first place.
the uncomfortable question
in short, the path to legitimacy and the path to extraordinary returns may no longer be the same path.
and as a result, i'm genuinely not sure what purpose bitcoin and crypto serve today beyond being another asset class for speculation.
maybe that's enough. maybe being "just another tradeable asset" is the final form.
but if that's the case, we should stop pretending it's revolutionary and just call it what it is: a speculative tech stock with better branding.
#RiskAssetsMarketShock $BTC